Market reaction on FED's change in monetary policy is irrational

2022年1月29日

The stock and crypto market reactions on for some time known FED's change in monetary policy is an emotional overreaction driven by fear. As you can see from the graph that compares Nasdaq's Index development over the last years with US State Interest rates there was a period from 2015 to 2019 with climbing interest rates and climbing NDQ as well. Directly before the global start of Corona pandemic the US Interest Rate was 1.75%. Currently, the markets expect an up to four times increase of some 0.25% per step in 2022, perhaps resulting in 1.25% at the end of the trading year - so what are we in fear of ???

What changed at Nasdaq and Crypto during the Corona Years 2020 and 2021 is the steepness of the price increase - but is this increase of Tech and Crypto really mainly driven by a very low level of interest rates? Surely not, as we have already seen such low interest rates in the period of 2008/9 to 2015 during the global financial crisis and there was not such increase in the steepness of price development. Moreover, innovative tech companies which calculate with double digit sales increase per year can not be severely damaged by an interest rate increase of some 1%.

To my mind, what really changed in 2020 and 2021 and boostered Tech Stocks and Crypto similarly, is a new awareness of the relevance of the global digital social and business model. As never before, Corona let us understand that digital and technical innovations are of systemic importance to jointly master the challenges of the future and Crypto's Blockchains may form a catalytic and secure fundament to trade and socially connect people peer to peer all over the world.

Yours

Edgar Neufeld

Germany