VIX do-or-die time

2020年6月10日

I don't trade VIX options very often, and I don't give much credence to VIX technical analysis. However, when it paints a picture that seems to be confirming bigger troubles with the SPX, it's worth giving it a look. I expect more of a rounding formation/slight upward bias here moreso than a giant upward spike which is typical of VIX moves. The reason here is that the put-call ratio is already quite elevated and I suspect many people are already hedged. OTOH, options 'max pain' suggest 2800 SPX - a solid 12% away from here. seems possible, however unlikely - but would probably be much more spikey than rounded.

Here, we see a bounce from the longer term support line from increased VIX reading starting in the beginning of the year.

Please note: this is on log-scale.

2020年6月12日

注释

Just noting the weird bounce-failure currently shows the SPX, DJIA, and NASDAQ all up, but so is the VIX. These types of divergences usually result in lower indexes.

2020年6月16日

注释

Noting we have another one of these dangerously weird days where all the major indexes are flying high -- and VIX is also going up. This behavior is unusual and suggests this rally is likely to fail.