ALE_SESHAT

There is always a 1st time so I start with VIX to keep it simple

TVC:VIX   恐慌指数
General observation and personal market view.
I wasn't expecting VIX             -3.63% to break 25, especially after *CPI* reading yesterday. There is something that this move down in VIX             -3.63% and up in SPX             1.34% has nothing to do with the fundamentals IMHO             . Technically it makes sense and I can follow the rationale of TA experts that are much better than me at that as I'm not an expert. From the fundamental perspective, I believe, this market has to reprice down as yields on 10y and 30y are rising. You are getting higher inflation in US, 3 hikes are the less we can expect for FED, and playing with a DCF             model I believe the price should be much lower. TNX             0.21% are responding accordingly to higher rates expectation but USD and equity are not. Now low volumes are not helping price discovery too and the price can, therefore, drift higher according to TA. So this is the environment I don't like but it is what it is and I want to understand how to play it intraday.

Comments for the day ahead:
I wasn't expecting VIX             -3.63% to break 25, especially after *CPI* numbers yesterday.
Volatility losing momentum below 25 rapidly. If it remains below 20 I think it will decrease further and therefore SPX             1.34% has a green light on continuing the recovery. I think there is a chance and a risk that yesterday was a trap to squeeze out the Vol longs. In that case, I will watch out carefully that VOL does not start increasing again and going to close the gap around the 25 areas. If that happens I will expect another sell phase in equities.
If VOL remains below 20 I will no probably enter any trade until it drops below 17. If VOL breaks down on the downside the line “Bus-stop 1a,1b” then I will go long on the SPX             1.34% with tight stop loss. Target to close the intraday trade will be decided according to the SPX             1.34% level but ideally around “Bus stop 2 line” on the chart or close to the lower line of the channel.

Hope you enjoy it this is my first chart looking forward to your comments, critics, and observations. Any suggestion how to improve this first post is highly appreciated.

Thanks to Dankh aka             @dkh and @Sophia715 for being always in the chat and sharing your ideas. I always follow you and learn a lot from your comments even If I'm not participating in the chat actively!. Hope to start giving back some of what I'm learning but I’m still in the learning phase and I guess I will make a lot of mistakes in my analysis so please keep in mind reading my comments that I’m not a professional!

Have a nice day!
评论: We never went down the price level 1a-1b reaching the mid-channel line and bouncing around that. Still in nobody's land as a further spike in vol needs momentum and a confirmation of increasing momentum need the close and the break of the 25 level around the 14/02 gap. SPX weaker and USD strong. I've entered no position yet waiting for the price to give me some clarity on the direction.
评论: Vol is rangebound today but seems to have lost the momentum at the opening. I'm trying to find a nice spot on the SPX to short. Price is holding at 50MA and direction is unclear. VIX is not rising as SPX approaches higher resistance levels so I'm not confident to do anything at the moment. A break of the SPX 50 MA on the upside could push price higher.
评论:
Looking on the SPX chart
- Bullish
Price is between 20 MA and 50MA with 10MA moving up.
- Bearish
Price outside and below the rising channel
line 1/1 will be a resistance
2575 16/02 daily high will be a resistance
2747 (0.618 Fib) will be a resistance
Intermediate resistance level (reversion zones) are 2753-2745 from 16/02

Note: Volatility still higher than the rising channel on the VIX chart.
评论: Will update later but just for the records, I'm still flat. There is risk for the SPX to go up so I will watch the action until I see some clarity in the price action.
评论: If SPX it breaks the 34-37 that is where rising gann line from election low and the 16/02 High are than we will be headed to 50-60
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I took no position yet today still waiting. Channel is broken on the upside. Wait for 20/02 H line tag if it goes up from there next resistances as mentioned above.
评论:

I added a corrected channel (red dotted lines) to take into consideration the recent price development. If the lower channel line is respected I think it will important to look at it instead of the first one.
评论:
Ner channel with (red dotted lines) not relevant to the VIX price action it has been tested briefly but that support has been taken out so I will continue to watch the old channel. My guess is that MM want to put the VIX future curve in contango again to trap more people on the short (VIX) side.
评论: Let's watch how the fed minutes at 2 pm will move the market to have clarity on the position to take. I will wait 15 minutes to filter out some overreactions. What is worrying me most on the VIX chart is that we are trending down to the first target 1a 1b that can be easily taken out if the minutes are perceived as dovish. Most worrying is that VXST is down big time and VIX is close to the march contract so after that we will start to see a very mild contango on the VIX curve.
评论: Happy not to have made any trade today to much action and squeezes for my taste. Good thing is that SPX and vol tagged most of the principal levels and therefore that should give us a confirmation that the trend is down but there is a plenty of holes ahead so I decided to stay flat overnight and eventually look for a lower risk trade tomorrow.
评论: Quick update on the VIX chart I've drawn some trendlines that I think it could be relevant in the short term there is a sort of megaphone pattern forming, the price is within the channel but that pattern suggests to me that we will see some wild swings today too...
If SPX it breaks the 34 area than we will be headed to 50-60
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testing 2734.4 that was an important res/support line from past days above the descending channel from 18/02 high
what is bothering me is that VIX is not moving so that could go either way .....
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I hope I can live up to the compliment. Inflation is bullish for stocks. VIX going down can just be an indicator that managers are looking for other ways to deal with risk since the VIX counter-parties are becoming extinct. Anyway, good job!
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P.S. Chinese new year will IMO also be a factor to take care. This means to me that liquidity is lower and therefore price can be distorted much easier. If this trend retracement on the SPX remains intact and continues to grind higher it could well break the above resistance on low vol. Then we have to watch out for the first day when Asian market will come back...
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