The Fed decision today with probably give the market their expected 25bp hike, the devil in the detail is always the press conference and any potential guidance offered, the market is pricing in much slower and ending to rate hikes and possible cuts by year-end. BUT he has consistently said there will be not cuts this year !! and that could disappoint bulls and a quick reversal could ensue. place your bets and good luck out there. Today is about watch the first hour after the announcement manage existing positions and don't get sucked into the frenzy after the announcement the Algo's will kill you
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Just an update on a chart I posted about the possible top in the S&P, today will decide our fate for the next month.
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Through all the turmoil in the past weeks and heading into FOMC week the range remains intact 3800/4200, tough to see this breaking but a break will create a reaction, but the market now in a mode of last rate hike Wednesday and then done or pause because of the banking crisis. Its evidence to me that the broader would be dead without the buffer and safety net of the CB...scary good luck all
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Its now April and the 3800/4200 maintains its tight grip on the market, even in the face of a banking crisis and may have survived or not !!, and as we start earnings seasons again, will there be a catalyst to break this range , or will this range keep us entertained for the foreseeable future? ....i think not there are those that think the Fed put back in play and even if they raise one more time certain traders believe its the end of the cycle ? i am in the other camp i would prefer looking at ideas to scale in for moves to really test 3800 soon, good luck and happy hunting
Mark Langley
