Short VIX has been one of the most successful trade du joirs during the bull market. It makes sense then that this one is going to catch a lot of traders wrong footed since the market turned, as it appears VIX has just been consolidating before a larger breakout and instead of being a good short here is actually a good buy. The remarkable symmetry if you're looking on a YTD chart - made me think that the 30 level was a good sell for vol related instruments. But instead of turning back down as the symmetry indicated, it ripped higher and has now closed above the 30 level. For me VIX has been consolidating, which is very bad considering the nature of VIX is that it spikes upward and then falls back down. This time it has spiked upward, consolidated before spiking higher still. I don't know if this is THE big one that markets have been waiting for but it appears a solid probability.
评论:
Cant believe i made such a rookie mistake, close wasn't even in yet.