PRE-ELECTION: SELL PREMIUM SMALL
已更新
VIX continues to trade higher relative to the futures back months, which tells me to "continue to sell premium here."
That being said, I don't want to go all crazy throwing on a bunch of 1 standard deviation short strangles/iron condors or iron flies in the broad market instruments here since we have that little binary event coming up on Tuesday which -- in all likelihood -- will make some grown men cry because they're in too big, positioned poorly for the possibilities either way, and are only front running a particular outcome which has been generally predicted to be a narrow Clinton popular and (more importantly) electoral college win, which should result in a relief rally. (That being said, I think that will be the outcome: a narrow Clinton popular vote win; a Clinton electoral college win).
If the Brexit vote taught us anything, though, it is that things are not always "as they appear" as far as polls are concerned ... .
In any event, since VIX relative to front month futures pricing is telling me to sell premium here, I'm going to go small (as always) perhaps one more time on Monday or Tuesday with an iron condor or fly before VIX runs out of steam (it ineveitably does at some point).
And then I'm going to pull up a chair, watch the election results come in, and hope for the best ... . Which, as a trader, is for a vol contraction on Wednesday morning ... .
That being said, I don't want to go all crazy throwing on a bunch of 1 standard deviation short strangles/iron condors or iron flies in the broad market instruments here since we have that little binary event coming up on Tuesday which -- in all likelihood -- will make some grown men cry because they're in too big, positioned poorly for the possibilities either way, and are only front running a particular outcome which has been generally predicted to be a narrow Clinton popular and (more importantly) electoral college win, which should result in a relief rally. (That being said, I think that will be the outcome: a narrow Clinton popular vote win; a Clinton electoral college win).
If the Brexit vote taught us anything, though, it is that things are not always "as they appear" as far as polls are concerned ... .
In any event, since VIX relative to front month futures pricing is telling me to sell premium here, I'm going to go small (as always) perhaps one more time on Monday or Tuesday with an iron condor or fly before VIX runs out of steam (it ineveitably does at some point).
And then I'm going to pull up a chair, watch the election results come in, and hope for the best ... . Which, as a trader, is for a vol contraction on Wednesday morning ... .
注释
The other thing I might do is buy some XIV (which isn't optionable) here to position for a likely volatility contraction going forward (which will drive XIV up; it's an inverse).
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