With a moderate IVR of 32.3, it makes sense to enter into a short strangle, where we are writing both the 45 calls and puts with the August 9th expiry. This trade does have unlimited risk, but does earn a profit of 550 per contract when the underlying security, Weibo, a Chinese Internet Technology firm, stays exactly at the k of 45. Because of the priced-in volatility, it is possible to execute this trade for a whopping credit of 5.50 per contract, which allows there to be a large range of values the security can take for which the trade can be profitable.
This trade is driven by the ability to get such a wide profit margin, and is supported by the channel in which the security has traded since May 22nd. Indicators further the neutral but slightly bullish notion, and the short strangle is likely to be profitable. Seeing that the RSI and CCI both indicate it is slightly overbought and the ADX indicates growing slight bullish momentum, we choose to execute this at the 45 instead of the 40 (there are no strikes for the aug 9th expiry actively traded in between, and closer-to-the-money).
Also, by using the August 9th expiry, we are able to get out of the position before the earnings announcement, which could move the stock dramatically. Going out another week would've only given us .18 more credit, which is not needed. With Weibo being Chinese, there is obviously exposure to trade war tensions, but following the G20 summit, things seem to have stabilized. With an $11-wide area in which profit can be attained, this trade makes a lot of sense, even considering the possible changes to and budding instability in the macro environment.
This trade is driven by the ability to get such a wide profit margin, and is supported by the channel in which the security has traded since May 22nd. Indicators further the neutral but slightly bullish notion, and the short strangle is likely to be profitable. Seeing that the RSI and CCI both indicate it is slightly overbought and the ADX indicates growing slight bullish momentum, we choose to execute this at the 45 instead of the 40 (there are no strikes for the aug 9th expiry actively traded in between, and closer-to-the-money).
Also, by using the August 9th expiry, we are able to get out of the position before the earnings announcement, which could move the stock dramatically. Going out another week would've only given us .18 more credit, which is not needed. With Weibo being Chinese, there is obviously exposure to trade war tensions, but following the G20 summit, things seem to have stabilized. With an $11-wide area in which profit can be attained, this trade makes a lot of sense, even considering the possible changes to and budding instability in the macro environment.