🏛 Fundamentals & Macro Update
U.S. GDP Surprise
The U.S. Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.8% annualized (from the earlier 3.3%) — a much stronger picture than many had expected.
That strength lifts the dollar and Treasury yields to some degree, as stronger growth gives the Fed more room to be cautious on further cuts.
But it’s a mixed signal: the labor market is softening in other metrics, inflation pressures still exist, and markets still price in additional rate cuts later in 2025.
How This Affects Gold
Downside Pressure: A stronger GDP can argue against aggressive easing, which weighs on gold. Real yields could pick up, making gold less attractive.
But Support Still There: Gold is getting strong tailwinds from safe-haven demand, central bank & ETF buying, and expectations that the Fed remains slow in cutting further.
MarketPulse
The dynamic is shifting: gold is less about the dollar alone now and more about real interest rates, inflation expectations, and policy credibility
📉 Price Action & Technicals
Price has already rallied hard into the $3,780–$3,790 zone (resistance cluster).
It is now pulling back (retracing) toward what looks like a support / trendline zone (just below current price) — this is a natural correction after a strong leg.
That support zone is a likely area where buyers may step back in, especially if the fundamentals don’t suddenly turn sharply bearish.
🎯 Trading Idea (for Tomorrow / Short Term)
Here’s the kind of play I’d watch for:
Buy on retracement toward the support / trendline zone
Entry zone: If price drops toward $3,755–$3,765 (or the lower boundary of the trendline ), look for signs of reversal (e.g. a bullish engulfing, hammer, or a bounce).
Target: Expect a bounce back toward previous highs / resistance — somewhere in the $3,780–$3,800+ region (depending on strength).
Stop-Loss: Place it just under the support / trendline — maybe $3,740 or a bit lower, to give some room for noise.
Alternate (more aggressive) setup:
If price breaks above $3,790–$3,800 with strong momentum and volume, you could ride that breakout to a further extension.
But only enter after confirmation; don’t jump preemptively.
U.S. GDP Surprise
The U.S. Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.8% annualized (from the earlier 3.3%) — a much stronger picture than many had expected.
That strength lifts the dollar and Treasury yields to some degree, as stronger growth gives the Fed more room to be cautious on further cuts.
But it’s a mixed signal: the labor market is softening in other metrics, inflation pressures still exist, and markets still price in additional rate cuts later in 2025.
How This Affects Gold
Downside Pressure: A stronger GDP can argue against aggressive easing, which weighs on gold. Real yields could pick up, making gold less attractive.
But Support Still There: Gold is getting strong tailwinds from safe-haven demand, central bank & ETF buying, and expectations that the Fed remains slow in cutting further.
MarketPulse
The dynamic is shifting: gold is less about the dollar alone now and more about real interest rates, inflation expectations, and policy credibility
📉 Price Action & Technicals
Price has already rallied hard into the $3,780–$3,790 zone (resistance cluster).
It is now pulling back (retracing) toward what looks like a support / trendline zone (just below current price) — this is a natural correction after a strong leg.
That support zone is a likely area where buyers may step back in, especially if the fundamentals don’t suddenly turn sharply bearish.
🎯 Trading Idea (for Tomorrow / Short Term)
Here’s the kind of play I’d watch for:
Buy on retracement toward the support / trendline zone
Entry zone: If price drops toward $3,755–$3,765 (or the lower boundary of the trendline ), look for signs of reversal (e.g. a bullish engulfing, hammer, or a bounce).
Target: Expect a bounce back toward previous highs / resistance — somewhere in the $3,780–$3,800+ region (depending on strength).
Stop-Loss: Place it just under the support / trendline — maybe $3,740 or a bit lower, to give some room for noise.
Alternate (more aggressive) setup:
If price breaks above $3,790–$3,800 with strong momentum and volume, you could ride that breakout to a further extension.
But only enter after confirmation; don’t jump preemptively.
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