On the left we can see what a perfect long term shape it made in 2020 and an even more amazing breakout with huge volume. It was all just perfect, couldn't get any better!! But as we have seen since Bitcoins 10K exit scam move, it dragged Tezos down with it, which would have been okay if it had just retested 2.20/2.50. In theory 1.80 was allowed as well, but the market had one of it's worst days ever and XTZ broke it's VERY important support at 1.80. Now as the title says, maybe it was because of the extreme liquidations that the Bitcoin leveraged brokers couldn't handle, which caused this extended dump. That is clear, but still, there were many people who sold their XTZ coins, so it was still voluntary selling. Now to be honest, i don't even know if XTZ is a highly leveraged traded coin like Bitcoin or ETH. Because if it is, then maybe it were the bulls that slipped. If not, i tend to say the long term support broke, the breakout simply failed and a big chance it's bad news for this year.
Now looking on the right, we can see it actually made a similar shape as we have on the left. With a nice breakout but with shitty volume. So still at a dangerous place if you ask me, which we can see being confirmed with the weak movement of the past days since the break out. It's still above the green zone and in theory it can still make that strong volume pump, but so far doesn't like it has that intention. But as we know, financial market do the unexpected many times, so there certainly still is a chance.
To give guidelines for this, i have drawn those channels. The bigger one shows price is moving in a downtrend, which is not great for a retest. Usually want to see retest happen fast and price pump again (showing eagerness of the bulls). So until now, not seeing any of that (yet). Then i have drawn a smaller channel, now i am not sure if I have drawn it correctly, but it seems it broke it's support already and could be headed to the support of the bigger channel.
Now from my experience, a retest is always allowed after a breakout, but a second retest moves the odds to neutral or even slightly in favor of the bears. So i think it's better to see a higher low than the first retest at 1.8 three days ago. There is maybe a backup plan around 1.66 (lower green zone), but its a bit of gambling though to say that upfront. Short term, think bulls need to break the red zone on the right around 2.05, similar as i described in my ChainLink analysis. As i am writing this, it made a small drop. almost breaking today's low.
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ChainLink analysis:
Now looking on the right, we can see it actually made a similar shape as we have on the left. With a nice breakout but with shitty volume. So still at a dangerous place if you ask me, which we can see being confirmed with the weak movement of the past days since the break out. It's still above the green zone and in theory it can still make that strong volume pump, but so far doesn't like it has that intention. But as we know, financial market do the unexpected many times, so there certainly still is a chance.
To give guidelines for this, i have drawn those channels. The bigger one shows price is moving in a downtrend, which is not great for a retest. Usually want to see retest happen fast and price pump again (showing eagerness of the bulls). So until now, not seeing any of that (yet). Then i have drawn a smaller channel, now i am not sure if I have drawn it correctly, but it seems it broke it's support already and could be headed to the support of the bigger channel.
Now from my experience, a retest is always allowed after a breakout, but a second retest moves the odds to neutral or even slightly in favor of the bears. So i think it's better to see a higher low than the first retest at 1.8 three days ago. There is maybe a backup plan around 1.66 (lower green zone), but its a bit of gambling though to say that upfront. Short term, think bulls need to break the red zone on the right around 2.05, similar as i described in my ChainLink analysis. As i am writing this, it made a small drop. almost breaking today's low.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
ChainLink analysis:
