为什么说今年内欧洲星链公司（EST）股价保守估计还有1倍成长空间？ Why Is It Reasonable to Expect为什么说今年内欧洲星链公司（EST）股价保守估计还有1倍成长空间？
Why Is It Reasonable to Expect a 100% Growth in the Stock Price of the European Starlink Company (EST) This Year?
（免责声明：纯个人看法，本文不构成投资建议，不承担任何责任和风险）
前几天马斯克威胁关闭乌克兰星链的发言引发了广泛的国家安全担忧。可以预见，马斯克此言一出，星链被各国替换已是注定结局。
欧洲卫星公司ESTULAST（EST）自3月3日，股价已经自1.2上涨至最高9.25。现在是3月11日，今日股价最高8.19，最低7.23。那么，今年EST的股价最高可能达到多少呢？
带着这个问题，我分别咨询了GPT4o和Grok3一些问题。
1. 公司估值：GPT4o认为，马斯克的星链公司目前估值应该在1000亿美元，Grok3认为估值在500亿-1000亿美元之间。中间价暂定在750亿美元。欧洲EST今天市值在TradingView客户端显示为35.4亿欧元（38.6亿美元），对应股价7.6欧元。
2. 卫星数量：星链公司目前共有7,062（6426颗在线）颗低地球轨道（LEO）卫星，欧洲EST(加OneWeb)为650颗。
3. 用户数量：星链专注于直接为个人和企业提供卫星互联网服务，目前共有400万用户；欧洲EST公司目前是传统卫星运营商，主要提供卫星容量批发服务，在地球同步轨道运营，直接用户数量不公开，但其服务间接覆盖范围广泛。
4. 终端价格：星链终端的成本约为数百美元，而欧洲EST（OneWeb终端）的成本高达数千美元。
5. 服务性能：星链提供高达200 Mbps的下载速度，延迟约为20-40毫秒。欧洲EST（OneWeb终端）的速度预计可达200 Mbps，但实际性能和延迟可能需要进一步验证。
6. 终端数量：乌克兰目前使用约40,000个星链终端。Eutelsat目前在乌克兰部署了数千个终端，但尚未全部投入使用。欧洲EST公司首席执行官Eva Berneke表示，若要替代星链的终端数量，需要几个月的时间才能提供相应数量的终端。
7. 安全可靠性：乌克兰对卫星通信的需求不仅限于速度和覆盖，还包括服务的可靠性和安全性。欧洲EST公司需要确保其服务在战时环境中的稳定性和抗干扰能力。
8. 资金和政策：大规模替换星链服务需要巨大的资金投入和政策支持。欧洲EST公司需要与欧盟和乌克兰政府密切合作，确保项目的可行性和资源的有效配置。
9. 实现周期：考虑到上述挑战，欧洲EST公司要完全替代星链在乌克兰的服务，可能需要数个月到数年的时间。具体时间取决于资源投入、技术改进和国际合作的进展情况。
10. 总体评估：欧洲EST公司在技术和资源方面需要进行重大提升，才能在乌克兰有效替代星链的服务。这需要战略规划、资金支持和国际合作。
11. 发射成本对比：
- 阿丽亚娜5 vs. 猎鹰9：阿丽亚娜5的1.6亿至1.9亿美元远高于猎鹰9的5000万至6700万美元，成本比约为2.5:1至3:1。
- 阿丽亚娜6 vs. 猎鹰9：阿丽亚娜6的7500万至1.2亿美元仍高于复用猎鹰9的5000万至6000万美元，成本比约为1.3:1至2:1。
- 每公斤成本：阿丽亚娜5的每公斤发射成本约为5000至7000美元，阿丽亚娜6预计降至3000至5000美元，而猎鹰9仅为1410美元左右，相差数倍，但不是数量级差异。
其他相关背景信息:
1. 替换意愿：强烈。现在欧洲用EST替换掉星链的决心非常强烈。
2. 资金资源：很多。欧洲宣布了8400亿美元国防投资计划。德国宣布5000亿欧元国防投资计划。挪威正在考虑利用其17000亿欧元的主权财富基金来大幅增加对乌克兰的支持。
3. 技术难度：技术壁垒应该没有，但工程难度肯定有。
4. 欧洲资本已经用现金投票了，过去一周欧洲EST公司股价飞涨7倍。
5. 这几天陆续还看到一些各国取消星链服务合同的新闻。
综上，根据以上信息，保守估计：
假设，今年以内资本市场给予欧洲EST公司的估值为星链公司的10%，即75亿美元，那么，届时对应股价应为14.7欧元，1倍！
2025-3-11 WX
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Why Is It Reasonable to Expect a 100% Growth in the Stock Price of the European Starlink Company (EST) This Year?
(Disclaimer: This is purely a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The author assumes no responsibility or risk.)
A few days ago, Elon Musk’s threat to shut down Starlink services in Ukraine sparked widespread national security concerns. Predictably, Musk’s statement has set the stage for Starlink to be replaced by various countries—an outcome that now seems inevitable.
The European satellite company ESTULAST (EST) has seen its stock price soar from 1.2 euros on March 3 to a peak of 9.25 euros. As of today, March 11, the stock hit a high of 8.19 euros and a low of 7.23 euros. So, what could be the maximum stock price for EST this year?
To address this question, I consulted both GPT-4o and Grok 3 with the following insights:
Company Valuation: GPT-4o estimates Musk’s Starlink to be valued at $100 billion, while Grok 3 suggests a range of $50 billion to $100 billion. Taking the midpoint of $75 billion as a reference, EST’s current market cap, as shown on TradingView, stands at 3.54 billion euros (approximately $3.86 billion), corresponding to a stock price of 7.6 euros.
Satellite Count: Starlink operates 7,062 low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites (6,426 online), while EST (including OneWeb) has 650 satellites.
User Base: Starlink focuses on direct-to-consumer and enterprise satellite internet services, boasting 4 million users. In contrast, EST operates as a traditional satellite provider, primarily wholesaling satellite capacity on geosynchronous orbits, with no public data on direct users but a broad indirect coverage.
Terminal Cost: Starlink terminals cost a few hundred dollars, whereas EST’s (OneWeb) terminals cost thousands of dollars.
Service Performance: Starlink offers download speeds up to 200 Mbps with latency of 20-40 milliseconds. EST (OneWeb) is expected to reach similar speeds of 200 Mbps, though real-world performance and latency require further validation.
Terminal Numbers: Ukraine currently uses about 40,000 Starlink terminals. Eutelsat has deployed thousands of terminals in Ukraine, though not all are operational. EST’s CEO, Eva Berneke, stated that replacing Starlink’s terminal count would take months to achieve.
Security and Reliability: Ukraine’s satellite communication needs extend beyond speed and coverage to reliability and security, especially in wartime. EST must ensure its service’s stability and resistance to interference in such conditions.
Funding and Policy: Replacing Starlink on a large scale requires significant funding and policy support. EST needs close collaboration with the EU and Ukrainian government to ensure project feasibility and resource allocation.
Timeline: Given these challenges, fully replacing Starlink in Ukraine could take months to years, depending on resource investment, technological improvements, and international cooperation.
Overall Assessment: EST requires substantial technological and resource upgrades to effectively replace Starlink in Ukraine, necessitating strategic planning, funding, and global partnerships.
Launch Cost Comparison:
Ariane 5 vs. Falcon 9: Ariane 5’s $160 million to $190 million far exceeds Falcon 9’s $50 million to $67 million, a cost ratio of 2.5:1 to 3:1.
Ariane 6 vs. Falcon 9: Ariane 6’s $75 million to $120 million still exceeds reused Falcon 9’s $50 million to $60 million, a ratio of 1.3:1 to 2:1.
Cost per Kilogram: Ariane 5 costs $5,000-$7,000 per kg, Ariane 6 is projected at $3,000-$5,000 per kg, while Falcon 9 is around $1,410 per kg—a significant but not order-of-magnitude difference.
Additional Context:
Replacement Motivation: Extremely strong. Europe’s resolve to replace Starlink with EST is resolute.
Financial Resources: Abundant. Europe has announced an $840 billion defense investment plan, Germany a €500 billion defense fund, and Norway is considering tapping its €1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund to boost support for Ukraine.
Technical Difficulty: No insurmountable technological barriers, though engineering challenges remain.
Market Sentiment: European capital has already voted with cash—EST’s stock surged 7x in the past week.
Recent Developments: News of countries canceling Starlink contracts has emerged in recent days.
Conclusion:
Based on the above, a conservative estimate suggests: if the capital markets value EST at 10% of Starlink’s $75 billion valuation (i.e., $7.5 billion) by year-end, the corresponding stock price would be 14.7 euros—a 100% increase!
March 11, 2025 - WX
