技术分析之外
韩国的货币危机能否预示新的经济范式? 在一场重现2009年动荡的戏剧性转折中,韩元跌至历史低点,突破了对美元汇率的关键KRW1,450关口。这一货币市场的重大变化不仅仅是一个数字里程碑——它反映了全球货币政策转变与国内政治动态的复杂交织,可能会重新定义我们对互联世界中新兴市场脆弱性的理解。
美联储最近的“鹰派降息”(意为在降低利率的同时,暗示未来可能收紧货币政策)创造了一个有趣的矛盾:在降低利率的同时,它发出了比市场预期更为保守的未来降息信号。这种微妙的立场,加上韩国总统尹锡悦短暂宣布戒严后的国内政治动荡,形成了一场**多重因素叠加产生的危机**,挑战了关于先进新兴经济体货币稳定的传统智慧。韩元作为今年表现最差的新兴亚洲货币,引发了关于地区经济框架在复杂全球压力下**抗风险能力**的深刻问题。
特别有趣的是韩国当局的反应。他们采取了先进的市场稳定措施,包括与国家养老金服务机构达成的650亿美元的外汇互换协议。这种灵活的反应表明,在传统货币政策工具可能不再足够的时代,现代经济管理需要日益创造性的解决方案。在市场消化这些发展之际,这一局势成为一个引人注目的案例,展示了发达经济体如何在日益不可预测的全球金融环境中,在市场力量与监管干预之间找到微妙的平衡。
{2024/12/19} 教yi园:2025年,美债10年有望冲刺6.1%,倒推接下来的宏观路径TVC:US10Y
美债是散户交易者的冷门观察品种,不过它确是机构热衷的关键投资品种。
随着阶段性降息的开启,已经接近于尾声。
川普上台打响关税大棒最大的风险来源于二次通胀的反弹,这是必然,也将是事实。
随着薪资增速的持续走高,当前降息仅仅是阶段性,而非降息周期,参考1995/1997最有代表性。
宏观路径来看,美国25年面临二次通胀反弹,迫使美联储的加息预期将再度抬升。
10年期美债收益率不出意外会直接拉升到6.12%附近,这个位置是长周期下降通道上轨,同时是长期水平关键位,两者形成的共振会对利率表现影响重大。
(放心,美债收益率依旧适用于技术分析)
所以接下来预期的路径就是:
降息结束-10Y收益率抬升-加息预期增加-10Y收益率飙升-直到6.1%可能出现的宏观拐点为止!
第一次把国债收益率放出来分析,老惯例,25年回头再来验证。
美元/人民币:救救我! USD/CNY: Save me!个人观点,请勿转载!
市场有双无形的手,这双手目前还在等待时机出手!
目前个人二级市场仓位保持在30%-40%(在各金融指数没有形成有效趋势,切忌不能重仓)
金融指数参考:美元指数(下跌趋势打开利好CHINA二级市场)、美元/人民币(下跌趋势打开利好CHINA二级市场)、上证指数、A50、恒生指数(DDDD)
根据古典经济学家亚当·斯密探讨了自由市场经济的理论和实践,以及如何通过劳动分工、市场竞争和自我利益来促进国家财富的增长。在面对目前经济基本面的困难,失业率上升和实体经济萧条,我们可以借鉴《国富论》中的一些思想来制定具体的应对措施。
首先,我们需要促进劳动市场的灵活性和多样性。政府可以通过简化就业法规、减少企业用工成本和提供职业培训等方式,增加劳动市场的吸引力和适应性。这样可以帮助更多的人找到工作,从而降低失业率。
其次,政府应该采取措施支持实体经济的发展。这可以通过减税、提供贷款优惠、扶持中小企业等方式来实现。同时,政府还应该鼓励创新和技术进步,提高生产效率和 产品质量 ,以提高国内外市场的竞争力。
此外,互联网和移动电话的普及已经对人们的生活方式产生了深远影响,其中包括导致民众精神的影响和社会活动的降低。政府应该积极引导互联网和移动电话的健康发展,提高人们的网络素养,避免过度依赖电子产品导致的生活方式不良变化。同时,政府也可以通过举办公共文化活动、体育赛事等方式,鼓励人们参与现实生活中的社会活动,增强社区凝聚力和身体健康。
综上所述,通过提高劳动市场的灵活性和多样性,支持实体经济的发展,以及引导互联网和移动电话的健康发展,我们可以有效应对当前经济基本面所面临的挑战,促进社会经济的持续健康发展。
以上只是个人天马行空般的假设,非传统经济学理论,不作为任何行动派参考
Personal opinion, please do not reprint!
The market has two invisible hands, and these hands are still waiting for the opportunity to act!
At present, the personal secondary market position is maintained at 30%-40% (if there is no effective trend in various financial indexes, it is best not to overweight)
Financial index reference: US dollar index (downward trend opens up the CHINA secondary market), US dollar/RMB (downward trend opens up the CHINA secondary market), Shanghai Composite Index, A50, Hang Seng Index
According to the classical economist Adam Smith, he explored the theory and practice of free market economy and how to promote the growth of national wealth through division of labor, market competition and self-interest. In the face of China's current difficulties in economic fundamentals, rising unemployment and depression in the real economy, we can draw on some ideas in "The Wealth of Nations" to formulate specific countermeasures.
First, we need to promote the flexibility and diversity of the labor market. The government can increase the attractiveness and adaptability of the labor market by simplifying employment regulations, reducing corporate labor costs and providing vocational training. This can help more people find jobs and thus reduce unemployment.
Second, the government should take measures to support the development of the real economy. This can be achieved through tax cuts, loan concessions, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, the government should also encourage innovation and technological progress, improve production efficiency and product quality, and enhance competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets.
In addition, the popularity of the Internet and mobile phones has had a profound impact on people's lifestyles, including the impact on people's spirit and the decline of social activities. The government should actively guide the healthy development of the Internet and mobile phones, improve people's network literacy, and avoid adverse changes in lifestyle caused by over-reliance on electronic products. At the same time, the government can also encourage people to participate in social activities in real life and enhance community cohesion and physical health by holding public cultural activities and sports events.
In summary, by improving the flexibility and diversity of the labor market, supporting the development of the real economy, and guiding the healthy development of the Internet and mobile phones, we can effectively respond to the challenges facing the current economic fundamentals and promote the sustained and healthy development of the social economy.
The above is just my wild assumptions, not traditional economic theory, and is not a reference for any activists.
望周知由于工作原因,后期降低发布个股观点频率,公开发布的个股只作为个人Mark不作荐,若有跟票者盈亏自负,望周知,感谢大家点赞支持!😊
Due to work-related reasons, the frequency of publishing individual stock opinions will be reduced in the future. Proceed with caution and cherish the journey. Publicly shared stocks are only for personal marking purposes and not recommendations. For those who choose to follow, stop-loss should be controlled within 6%, while there is no upper limit for profit-taking (for stocks hitting the daily limit, regardless of whether the limit is maintained, they can be held for up to 7 more days). Please take note.Thank you for your support!😊