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【XAUUSD】“双旦假期”黄金关键点位关注哪里？1230黄金关键位位更新： 受“圣诞假期”影响，黄金在上周市场活跃度较低，本周还有元旦假期，周二提前休市，周三市场休市；本周先以震荡区间看待关注上方【2639-42】，下方【2577-2583】 日内多空关键位2607（周一~周二） 操作思路 ①空方：关注上方区域2639-42，等待1小时级别空头信号布局，止损位置2642上方/信号末端 ②多头：短线关注2607上方信号，若突破2642开启波段保护思路；也可关注日线级别多头趋势线的回踩机会（起点20240724） PS：信号=pinbar 吞没，孕线突破，顶底分型，大实体K线 思路参考学习为主，风险第一，执行第二 （学习/探讨可以关注/私聊我）
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全球咖啡市场是否正在酝酿一场超越价格的危机？在一场前所未有的事件中，咖啡行业正经历连续第五个需求超过产量的季节，这将价格推向近半个世纪以来的最高水平。这不仅仅是市场动态的故事，而是一个复杂的局面：气候变化、消费模式的转变和农业可持续性等因素交织在一起，重塑了世界上最受欢迎饮品的未来。 形势已经变得非常严峻。巴西因干旱影响的阿拉比卡作物和越南因天气影响的罗布斯塔生产共同在市场上形成了“完美风暴”。Volcafe 将其 2025/26 年巴西产量预测大幅下调 1100 万袋，突显了这些挑战的严重性。与此同时，中国在五年内咖啡消费量激增 60%，给本已紧张的供应链带来了更多压力。 最令人担忧的是，这些问题根深蒂固。从肯尼亚著名的 AA 咖啡豆农场到巴西的大型咖啡种植园，传统种植地区正面临气候变化带来的生存威胁。气候变化导致适宜种植的地区持续缩小，优质咖啡生产所需的微妙平衡——特定的湿度、温度范围和降雨模式——变得越来越难以维持。一位行业专家指出，当前的市场压力可能成为新常态，而非暂时性中断。 这一复杂局面为投资者、行业利益相关者和消费者带来了挑战和机遇。随着雀巢和 J.M. Smucker 等主要生产商宣布在 2025 年提价，该行业正处于十字路口。咖啡的未来可能不仅取决于我们如何管理当前的供应挑战，还取决于我们如何在新的环境和市场现实中适应和创新。
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《权力的游戏》：中世纪的映射与权谋的狂欢 "Game of Thrones": A of Power Struggles我必须假定各位都看过《冰与火之歌》才能愉快地开始。今天的主题是先问个问题：你觉得这部剧最让你震惊的是什么？很多人说，这部剧里的主角没有不死之身，简直是匪夷所思。这话不全对，主角自然不会退场，真正匪夷所思的事是你根本不知道谁是主角，因此观众喜欢的角色都有可能会死，多任性啊。 马丁大叔曾跟观众开玩笑，他说：“你们每催更一次，我就杀死一个史塔克的。”回到最让人震惊的桥段这个问题上，我会选“血色婚礼”那场戏。在这一集中，史塔克家族里一大群我们认为重要的角色，甚至包括未出世的孩子，被宴会主人尽数屠杀，手段残暴，毫无人性，而观众也毫无心理准备。 英国历史上有两个类似事件，叫做“黑色晚餐”和“葛伦克屠杀”。“黑色晚餐”发生在1440年，苏格兰国王邀请道格拉斯伯爵到爱丁堡城堡参加晚宴。宴会结束时，随着一只野猪头颅被抬出，宴会主人的杀手们心领神会，将在场客人屠杀殆尽。第二个故事发生在200多年后，苏格兰的坎贝尔部落进犯格伦科峡谷。峡谷的主人姓麦当劳，虽然两家世代为仇，麦当劳家族还是献上了好酒好菜。酒足饭饱后，坎贝尔家族却杀进主人家，38人被屠杀，老弱妇孺无一幸免。 要知道，欧洲自古有个叫“待客法则”的习俗，在剧中被称为“宾主权利”，意思是说在主人和客人共同享用面包和盐这个仪式之后，宾主双方都暂时不可加害对方，而违反了宾主权利的人要永生遭受诅咒。几百年过去了，这两段故事被马丁大叔改头换面写成了“血色婚礼”，遭受世人的唾骂。在著名的网站IMDb上，这一集得到了人类电视剧历史上最高的评分。而剧中的这首悦耳又阴森的曲子《卡斯特梅的雨季》，大概也是人类历史上最不适合婚礼的乐曲吧。 除了情节让人震惊外，这个处处是典故的电视剧简直就是考据爱好者的狂欢节。有没有发现剧中故事的发生地点，这个名叫维斯特洛大陆的地方，很像英国？你可以看一下微信文章里的视频，看到英国和爱尔兰的地图了吧？现在把爱尔兰岛上下旋转180度接到英格兰的下面，再对照一下维斯特洛的地图，相似度90%吧？ 还没完。你看剧中绝境长城的位置，相应在英国地图上跟它相同位置的地方，也就是英格兰的北方，真的有一座抵御北方野蛮民族的“哈德良长城”，在电影《亚瑟王》中多次出现。有没有留意到在剧中的北方（临冬城和长城等地），画面总是灰暗无光的色调，而南方的君临城都是阳光明媚，一派温暖富庶的样子？这确实是英国的南方相对更近北方在方方面面都有差距，比如文化、经济甚至口音。剧中君临城的皇室都讲着南方式的高雅英语，而北方史塔克家族的人大都操着一口浓重的北方口音。不过有趣的是，同为北方人，史塔克家的大女儿珊莎的口音却很轻。这也好理解，如果一个意图展现腔调优雅的美女，张口却是一口粗犷的土腔，那也太让人跳戏了。 你可能会留意到更多隐藏的典故。剧中的先民指的是凯尔特人，而安达尔人就是后来居上的盎格鲁撒克逊人。剧中有七大王国，在历史上盎格鲁撒克逊人也确实建立过并存的七个王国。还有一个七国中虚构的“七神崇拜”，它的神学基础是“七位一体”，这跟现实中的基督教很相似，因为后者强调的“三位一体”（圣父、圣子、圣灵）。英语叫“Trinity”，在英语系国家，以此命名的学院都是一等一的学术机构。 北方的铁群岛人很像维京人，南边的多恩，它的风俗、地理和人的外貌跟西班牙类似。高庭象法国封建制度，布拉佛斯商业发达酷似威尼斯。君临城呢，一方面它的政治地位很像伦敦，不过中世纪时伦敦规模尚小，因此它又像控制东西方交通咽喉的君士坦丁堡，也就是今天的伊斯坦布尔。 还有一点，从地图上看，维斯特洛跟英国很相似，但它的面积之大，公路交通这么发达，又像古罗马帝国。这种似是而非让历史爱好者无比着迷。还有亚洲。你看龙母嫁的那个靠马上民族，作战勇猛，很像匈奴人、突厥人和蒙古人。在历史上，这三个所谓的来自东方的野蛮民族曾经洗劫欧洲三次，差点改变欧洲乃至整个全球历史的发展方向。 剧中角色更是影射了诸多中世纪的历史人物。饮食无度、好色荒淫的国王劳勃·拜拉席恩颇有亨利八世的影子。亨利八世的父亲亨利七世曾在法国流亡多年，后来在法国人的帮助下杀回英国登上王位，建立了都铎王朝，是不是有点像龙妈的故事套路？ 英国历史上还有一个出身贫贱的人物，他为人诡计多端，见风使舵，却一路官运亨通，当过财政大臣，进入了权力最高层。这是不是很像剧中的“小指头”？这位历史人物叫托马斯·克伦威尔。 前面那首阴惨惨的歌曲，讲的是老狮子泰温·兰尼斯特将一个家族彻底赶尽杀绝的故事。他阴鸷恶毒，但又算治国有方，因此酷似金雀花王朝的爱德华一世，历史留名“苏格兰之锤”。并且，兰尼斯特家族的王室徽章也是狮子。 有人说“小恶魔”提利昂跟莎士比亚笔下的图尔王理查三世颇为相似，也就是金雀花王朝最后一位国王，传说相貌奇丑。不过我倒觉得提利昂在丑陋的外貌下却善良睿智。而想真正明白两大家族对战这条主线，就必须要知道这个故事里最大的典——英国历史上的玫瑰战争。历史里的两大家族叫做Lancaster and York，电视剧里叫做Lannister and Stark。长达30年看不到头的尔虞我诈、血腥厮杀，说起这漫长的血腥和阴暗，还有什么能超过欧洲中世纪呢？ 不过所谓“中世纪”，其实也是一个模糊的概念。The Middle Ages, refers to the period of time between the 5th century and the 15th or 16th century，也就是从西罗马帝国灭亡，到文艺复兴和大航海时代来临前这1000年左右的时间。除了血腥和阴暗，中世纪还有三个最容易想到的名词：城堡、贵族、骑士。但中世纪早期的城堡不过是建在山岗上的小木塔，仅作防护之用，英文中叫Keep，所以剧中国王的红堡叫Red Keep。而那种宫廷风格的城堡Castle要到13世纪以后才广泛出现。这种小木塔阴暗狭小，居住体验极差。但不管怎样，城堡能让它的主人完美控制周围的一大片土地。用最白话的语言说，最初拥有城堡的地主在这片土地上自给自足，随后实力逐渐变大成了贵族，而城堡就成了权力中心。在城堡的周围往往还能形成一个商业活跃的集镇。 城堡主人的诺大家业自然要传给儿孙。而为了保证家族的财产完整，家产就不能兄弟姐妹评分，因此出现了长子继承制。其他的孩子要通过家族联姻或者成为骑士等方式自谋生路。 除了城堡，还能怎样保护贵族的资产？骑士！今天我们提到骑士精神，似乎是一个大大的褒义词，因为对女子彬彬有礼的那股体面劲儿。要不然广告里那个喝着某种饮料并说自己“活出了骑士风范”的男子怎么会如此动人？不过在中世纪早期，所谓骑士不过是武装暴徒。剧中的御林铁卫、守卫魔山，还有那个半张脸被自己亲哥烧烂的猎狗，他们一言不合就杀人，而且手段残忍。这些一点骑士风度都没有的杀手是战争机器的人设。如果骨子里并不是嗜血残暴、人格扭曲，反倒不会被贵族垂青。 在电视剧中，铁王座上坐着的是地位最高的国王，下面七个公国的领主效忠于他。全都是虚伪的表面服从。在大领主的下面又有若干宣誓效忠的小贵族。但不论大小，在各自的领土上，他们都是权力无边的“山寨王”。这些就是勾勒西方封建社会最粗糙的线条。 你看，虽然翻译为“封建”的中国封建，与欧洲人中世纪的所谓Feudalism相去甚远。在这部剧中，还有种种中世纪的生活场景，比如喝啤酒：酒馆里、饭桌上、聊天时，人人都手持大杯，各个都酗酒如命的样子。其实，那个叫麦芽酒，并非啤酒。在蒸馏技术发明之前，它的度数极低。当时欧洲卫生条件差，水源常被污染，而有杀菌功效的麦芽酒就成了一般人家的日常饮用品。但君临城里的皇族，他们华丽的酒杯中盛满的却是葡萄酒。要知道，在非传统葡萄产地的英、德等国，人们更习惯喝啤酒，而法国、意大利等国盛产葡萄，人们偏好红酒。中世纪时，葡萄酒保存时间短，所以能在非葡萄产地消费得起葡萄酒，那就是地位的象征了。 中国不太一样。中国百姓也用开水，以避免饮用水不洁。而要显示地位的人，会拿着百姓省着都不够吃的口粮酿造白酒，那是中国土豪古典的奢侈方式。 其实，长达千年的中世纪并不是“黑暗”一个词就可以精准概括的。它的一面是科学落后、战争肆虐、教会钳制、思想饥荒和瘟疫横行。但同时，城市发展、财富聚集、人口增长、教育普及、宗教改革、学术进步。牛津大学和剑桥大学就建立于此时。总之，从中世纪开始，人类开始探索更大的未知世界，在表面的混沌之中孕育着呼啸而出的现代欧洲文明。 美国历史学家本内特和克里斯特合著的书籍《欧洲中世纪史》，用通俗的语言严谨地讲述了中世纪的这两面。 当然，《权力的游戏》不等同于中世纪，但它选取了中世纪最具代表性的历史作为框架，虚构和绘制了一副瑰丽的画面，含沙射影、揉合混搭，讲述方式精彩、背景精彩。当然，最精彩的是故事本身。一个好的故事，往往既是一个故事的终点，又是更多好故事的指路牌。 权力的游戏：金融与投资视角分析 Game of Thrones: A Financial and Investment Analysis Perspective 宏观经济环境分析 Macroeconomic Environment Analysis 经济周期 Economic Cycles 维斯特洛大陆经历着典型的经济周期波动，"凛冬将至"不仅是气候预警，更是经济衰退的隐喻。漫长夏天带来的繁荣与即将到来的严冬萧条，展现了完整的经济周期。 The continent of Westeros experiences typical economic cycles. "Winter is Coming" serves not only as a climate warning but as a metaphor for economic recession. The prosperity of the long summer and the approaching winter depression demonstrate a complete economic cycle. 货币政策 Monetary Policy 铁金库（铁群岛银行）作为维斯特洛的中央银行角色，其债务政策直接影响全境经济。兰尼斯特家族作为主要债权人，通过债务杠杆控制王室，展示了货币政策对政治的深远影响。 The Iron Bank (Bank of Braavos) functions as Westeros's central bank, its debt policies directly affecting the continent's economy. The Lannisters, as major creditors, control the crown through debt leverage, demonstrating monetary policy's profound impact on politics. 商业模式分析 Business Model Analysis 传统行业 Traditional Industries 1. 封建地产信托（各大家族） 核心业务：土地管理和农业生产 收入来源：农民税收和资源开发 风险因素：气候变化和战争威胁 2. 军事防御服务（守夜人） 商业模式：公共服务的特许经营 成本结构：高固定成本，人力密集 可持续性挑战：人才招募和资源匮乏 新兴产业 Emerging Industries 1. 龙妈的颠覆性创新 核心竞争力：龙类资产 市场策略：快速扩张和垄断 增长瓶颈：资源控制和管理难度 2. 小指头的金融创新 业务模式：高频交易和信息套利 风险管理：政治对冲和多元化投资 核心优势：信息不对称利用 投资组合管理 Portfolio Management 资产配置策略 Asset Allocation Strategies 1. 兰尼斯特模式 核心策略：高杠杆运营 风险偏好：激进型 投资重点：政治影响力 2. 史塔克模式 核心策略：价值投资 风险偏好：保守型 投资重点：可持续发展 风险管理 Risk Management 1. 政治风险 对冲策略：联姻投资 风险分散：地理多元化 黑天鹅事件：红色婚礼（政治并购失败案例） 2. 市场风险 系统性风险：凛冬来临 非系统性风险：家族内讧 风险控制：情报网络建设 ESG投资分析 ESG Investment Analysis 环境因素 Environmental Factors 气候变化风险（长夜来临） 自然资源管理（森林和矿产） 可持续发展挑战 社会因素 Social Factors 人力资本管理（学士培养） 社会稳定性（平民动乱） 利益相关者关系 公司治理 Corporate Governance 继承制度（长子继承制） 权力制衡（小议会制度） 信息透明度 投资启示 Investment Insights 1. 多元化投资的重要性 权力、资源、人才的均衡配置 地理位置多样化 政治关系网络建设 2. 风险管理的关键性 建立完善的情报系统 保持充足的流动性储备 制定危机应对预案 3. 长期投资视角 注重可持续发展 建立品牌价值（家族声誉） 培养核心竞争力 结论 Conclusion 《权力的游戏》展现的不仅是政治斗争，更是一部完整的投资与金融教科书。从中我们可以学到资产配置、风险管理、公司治理等现代金融的核心概念。各大家族的兴衰成败，印证了金融市场的基本规律：分散投资、控制风险、保持流动性、注重长期价值。 Game of Thrones demonstrates not just political struggles but serves as a comprehensive textbook of investment and finance. It teaches core concepts of modern finance including asset allocation, risk management, and corporate governance. The rise and fall of great houses validate fundamental market principles: diversification, risk control, liquidity maintenance, and focus on long-term value. I Must Assume Everyone Has Watched *Game of Thrones* to Begin This Conversation Happily Today’s theme begins with a question: what shocked you the most in the series? Many people say that the protagonists in this show do not have plot armor, which is quite astonishing. But that’s not entirely accurate. Protagonists don’t simply exit the stage. The truly shocking thing is that **you don’t even know who the protagonist really is**, meaning that any character the audience loves could die at any moment—how whimsical is that? George R.R. Martin once jokingly told the audience, “Every time you ask me when the next book is coming out, I kill a Stark.” Back to the question of the most shocking scene—I would pick the “Red Wedding.” In that episode, a large number of characters we thought were important in House Stark, including even an unborn child, were brutally massacred by their hosts. The methods were cruel, completely devoid of humanity, and the audience was utterly unprepared. There are two similar events in British history known as the “Black Dinner” and the “Massacre of Glencoe.” The Black Dinner occurred in 1440, when the King of Scotland invited the Earl of Douglas to a feast at Edinburgh Castle. At the end of the banquet, a boar’s head was presented, signaling to the killers among the hosts to slaughter all the guests. The second event happened over 200 years later when the Campbell clan attacked the MacDonalds in Glencoe Valley. Although the MacDonalds—despite generations of enmity—offered food and hospitality, the Campbells slaughtered 38 members of the MacDonald clan after their meal, sparing neither the elderly nor women and children. It’s important to know that in Europe, there was a long-standing custom known as *dike asyl* (translated in the show as “guest right”), which meant that after the host and guest shared bread and salt, neither party could harm the other. Violating this custom cursed the perpetrator for eternity. Centuries later, George R.R. Martin repackaged these historical events as the “Red Wedding,” earning the hatred of audiences worldwide. On the renowned website IMDb, this episode received the highest rating in the history of television. The hauntingly beautiful yet sinister song “The Rains of Castamere,” featured in this episode, might be the most inappropriate piece of music ever played at a wedding. Beyond its shocking plot, the show, filled with references and historical allusions, is a paradise for history enthusiasts. Have you noticed that the continent of Westeros, where the story takes place, resembles Britain? If you look at the video linked in the WeChat article, you’ll see the maps of Britain and Ireland. Now, rotate Ireland 180 degrees and attach it to the southern part of England, then compare it to the map of Westeros—it’s about a 90% match! It doesn’t stop there. Look at the location of the Wall in the show; its counterpart on the map of Britain is in the same place—northern England—where you’ll find Hadrian’s Wall, which was built to defend against northern barbarian tribes. It’s been featured in movies like *King Arthur*. Have you noticed that scenes set in the North (Winterfell and the Wall) always have gloomy, dim lighting, while King’s Landing in the South is bathed in warm sunlight, radiating wealth and prosperity? This reflects the real-life disparity between southern and northern Britain in terms of culture, economy, and even accents. In the show, the royal family in King’s Landing speaks a refined southern English, while members of House Stark in the North have thick northern accents. However, intriguingly, Sansa Stark, the eldest Stark daughter, has a rather light northern accent. This makes sense—if a character meant to embody grace and elegance speaks in a rough accent, it would be jarring. You might notice even more hidden historical references. The First Men in the show symbolize the Celts, while the Andals represent the Anglo-Saxons who followed. Westeros has seven kingdoms, mirroring the historical Heptarchy of the Anglo-Saxons. The Faith of the Seven in the Seven Kingdoms resembles Christianity, specifically its doctrine of the “Seven-faced God,” a nod to the Christian Trinity (Father, Son, and Holy Spirit). In English, this is called the Trinity, and in English-speaking countries, institutions named after it are typically elite academic institutions. The Ironborn of the North resemble the Vikings, while Dorne in the South, with its customs, geography, and people’s appearance, evokes Spain. The Reach resembles the feudal systems of France, and Braavos, with its thriving commerce, is reminiscent of Venice. King’s Landing is politically akin to London, but given that medieval London was relatively small, it also resembles Constantinople, controlling East-West trade routes. Another detail: although Westeros resembles Britain in shape, its vast size and advanced road system are more akin to the Roman Empire. This mix of similarities fascinates history buffs endlessly. Let’s not forget Asia: Daenerys Targaryen’s Dothraki, a horse-based warrior culture, bears a strong resemblance to the Huns, Turks, and Mongols. Historically, these so-called barbarian tribes from the East ravaged Europe three times, nearly changing the course of global history. The characters in the series also parallel many figures from medieval history. King Robert Baratheon, with his gluttony and debauchery, resembles Henry VIII. Henry VIII’s father, Henry VII, spent years in exile in France before returning with French support to claim the throne and establish the Tudor dynasty—doesn’t that sound like Daenerys Targaryen’s storyline? There was also a historical figure in England who, though of lowly origins, was cunning, opportunistic, and rose to great power as Chancellor, eventually joining the highest echelons of authority. Doesn’t this sound like Littlefinger? This historical figure was Thomas Cromwell. That gloomy song mentioned earlier tells the story of Tywin Lannister’s complete annihilation of another family. Tywin, with his ruthless cunning yet effective governance, mirrors Edward I of the Plantagenet dynasty, nicknamed the “Hammer of the Scots.” Additionally, the sigil of House Lannister—a lion—matches that of the Plantagenets. Some compare Tyrion Lannister to Shakespeare’s portrayal of King Richard III of the House of York, known for his alleged deformities. However, I think Tyrion’s wit and kindness beneath his outward imperfections make him distinct. To truly understand the central conflict between the Lannisters and the Starks, one must know about the greatest inspiration behind this story: the Wars of the Roses. Historically, the two rival houses were the Lancasters and the Yorks; in the show, they’re the Lannisters and the Starks. This 30-year-long series of betrayals and bloody conflicts is the epitome of medieval Europe’s endless strife. The term “Middle Ages” itself is rather vague. The Middle Ages refers to the period between the 5th and the 15th or 16th centuries, from the fall of the Western Roman Empire to the dawn of the Renaissance and the Age of Exploration. While often associated with bloodshed and darkness, the Middle Ages also evoke three iconic terms: castles, nobility, and knights. Early medieval castles were mere wooden keeps built on hills for protection, offering little in terms of comfort. The Red Keep in the series derives its name from this. The grand stone castles we associate with the medieval period only became common after the 13th century. These castles, though initially crude, allowed their owners to dominate large swathes of land. In simple terms, the landowners with castles began as self-sufficient landlords, gradually growing into powerful nobles, with their castles becoming centers of power. Around these castles, bustling towns often emerged. The noble estates naturally passed down through inheritance. To ensure family wealth remained intact, inheritance typically followed primogeniture (the eldest son inherited everything). Other siblings had to secure their futures through marriage alliances or knighthood. Knights were another means of protecting noble wealth. Today, we view chivalry as a virtue, emphasizing courtesy, particularly towards women. However, in the early Middle Ages, knights were nothing more than armed thugs. The Kingsguard, the Mountain, and the Hound in the series—men who kill with impunity—are more realistic depictions of early knights. Only those inherently brutal and twisted in character could attract the attention of noble patrons. In the series, the Iron Throne is occupied by the supreme ruler, to whom the lords of the seven kingdoms pledge allegiance. However, this allegiance is superficial at best. Beneath the great lords are vassal nobles, all of whom act as “mini kings” within their domains. These power structures crudely outline the feudal system of medieval Europe. The term “feudalism,” as used in the West, differs significantly from the Chinese concept of “封建.” The show also depicts medieval life in many other aspects. For instance, the pervasive drinking of ale: in taverns, at feasts, or during casual conversations, everyone seems to be constantly drinking. In reality, what they drank was more akin to malt liquor, not modern beer. Before distillation was invented, the alcohol content was quite low. Due to poor sanitation, water sources were often contaminated, so this malt liquor served as a safer daily beverage. Meanwhile, the royal families of King’s Landing drank wine from elegant goblets. In non-traditional wine-producing countries like England and Germany, beer was more common, while wine was favored in France and Italy. In the Middle Ages, wine had a short shelf life, so consuming wine in non-wine-producing regions was a status symbol. China, on the other hand, addressed unclean water by boiling it for tea. To showcase their wealth, the Chinese elite brewed strong liquors using precious grains, an extravagant display of opulence. The Middle Ages, lasting about a thousand years, cannot be accurately described by the single term “dark.” They were characterized by scientific stagnation, rampant warfare, ecclesiastical control, intellectual famine, and plagues. Yet, they also saw urban development, wealth accumulation, population growth, educational progress, religious reform, and intellectual advances. Oxford and Cambridge Universities were both established during this time. From the Middle Ages onward, humanity began to explore unknown worlds, and beneath the surface chaos lay the seeds of modern European civilization. The book *A History of Medieval Europe* by American historians Bennett and Hollister provides a detailed and accessible exploration of both sides of the Middle Ages. Of course, *Game of Thrones* is not equivalent to the Middle Ages, but it uses some of the most representative aspects of medieval history as its framework, blending and reimagining them into a spectacular tapestry. Its storytelling is brilliant, its background even more so. And, of course, the most brilliant part is the story itself. A good story is often both the endpoint of one narrative and the signpost to many others.
CBOE:VIXY
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{2024/12/28} 教yi园：标普500将在2025年奔赴7000关口PEPPERSTONE:US500 短期来说，美股多头上行动能确实衰竭严重，这种走势唯一需要提防的是在2025年出现一次杀跌行情，按照现在的基本面来看，如果能给出现那种杀跌，相当于是一次黄金坑。 2025年价格上行剧本无非两种： 守稳5800，保持低波动率震荡走高，维持高估值。 一旦出现高波动率势必会杀估值，价格反转上涨力度可能更猛，这种情况就可能是意外事件推动的跳水，5418/5451/5478范围将会是黄金坑绝佳买点。 不管哪种走势，通往7000的路径是顺畅的，就看你能否活着到终点。 老样子，大胆预测完之后，2025年再来验证。
PEPPERSTONE:US500做多
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{2024/12/28} 教yi园：PEPE调整结构清晰明了，短期将拉长整理周期BINANCE:PEPEUSDT PEPE：今年非常强，是历史新高后出现的回撤，短期 价格是测试到了蓝色长期关键共振支撑范围。 而价格这种快速反弹起来的行情很难形成逆转，接下来 会有更长时间做震荡整理。 当前价格可能划出来一个区间，现在所处的填充区域就 是作为价格多空分水岭，整体来看需要更长的整理周期 来消化当前走势。 它和狗狗币一样，很长一段时间都要围绕中枢做无规则 整理，所以当价格波动率降低的时候就是需要准备好子 弹去等待机会的时候。
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{2024/12/28} 教yi园：DOGE关键位附近徘徊，一旦失守面临更长的调整周期BINANCE:DOGEUSDT DOGE：狗币的特殊性不言而喻，毕竟和政治绑定 在一起，至于未来有什么可能性，已经超出了正常 的认知范围，所以去预测它没什么太大意义。 不管是谁给狗币做背书，最终还是要有应用场景， 它才能更上一个台阶，否则还只是一种meme代币。 短期从技术面来看，价格触及了中期支撑后快速拉 升，而当前所处的0.308/0.32这个范围则是中长期 共振的关键范围，这里也只是出现了刺破，而且真正 意义上的有效突破，短期只要0.308这里还企稳，价 格就跌不下去，一旦这个位置穿下去，价格将会有更 长调整周期，那样最终会往0.206/0.222范围的长期 共振支撑范围靠拢。 所以当前的位置就是关键多空分水岭，价格会围绕 这个范围进行上下的无规则整理，很长一段时间都 会出现垃圾行情的走势。
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