谐波形态
未来趋势看法 12月18日 比特币以太坊行情分析
比特币触及9万美元后迅速承压回落，表明上方存在浮动供应，但比特币现在正处于下降通道，目标指向80000-83000美元。若反抽未能突破90000美元阻力，下跌趋势可能延续。 以太坊方面在超跌后优先观察修复行情，而不宜追涨杀跌。以太坊资金数据疲弱，凌晨冲高后回调幅度更大，反映出山寨板块整体偏弱，短线操作上可考虑分批布局，小目标先看向2,900美元附近。
重点关注:日本的央行加息政策，12月19日决议若意外收紧货币政策，可能还会进一步加剧下跌。
Gold is gathering momentum for an upward move.Bullish Core Support: Triple Drivers Bolster the Bottom
Policy and Liquidity Support: The Federal Reserve implemented its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, and simultaneously initiated a technical balance sheet expansion by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds. This high level of purchases will be maintained for several months, effectively supplementing market liquidity and pushing down the US dollar index. Despite policy disagreements, the underlying logic of the easing cycle and liquidity support remains unchanged, reducing the cost of holding gold.
Central Bank Gold Purchases Provide Strong Support: The global central bank gold buying spree continues, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months. In October, global central banks net purchased 53 tons of gold (a 36% increase month-on-month), with countries like Poland and Brazil continuing to increase their holdings. This national-level gold demand provides strong support. Global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive months, with over 700 tons added in 2025, indicating strong institutional confidence in gold allocation.
Technical Support Confluence: The $4287 level corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level on the hourly chart and is close to the short-term oscillation lower bound of $4288-$4290, forming a technical support confluence. The 4-hour chart MACD shows a bullish crossover and high-level oscillation, and the stochastic oscillator is repairing upwards, indicating clear short-term rebound momentum and strong resistance to price declines.
Gold trading strategies
buy：4280-4290
tp:4300-4320-4350
The downward trend remains unchanged!The downward trend remains unchanged! Short selling options! Trend = New low.
