趋势分析
Zk 会是下个ZECVitalik 推文 + Atlas 上线 + 隐私季 + 通缩燃烧 = 3-5 倍暴击机会！”
NYSE:ZK 是全网 唯一 把「以太坊闪电速度 + Zcash 级隐私 + 真·协议收入回购燃烧」三合一的 L2。
0.064买了， 希望可以来个5-10X。
亚马逊连续跳空上扬 AI 热潮推动股价重估亚马逊（Amazon）近日出现了大型股中罕见的走势——连续两次明显的向上跳空缺口。这显示市场正在快速重新评估亚马逊在 AI 生态系统中的角色，一系列利好消息正在点燃新的上涨动能。
AI 催化剂引发股价重估
首个缺口出现在上周五，亚马逊公布第三季度财报后，重新点燃了市场对其长期成长故事的信心。公司云计算业务 AWS（Amazon Web Services）营收同比增长 20%，表现超出预期。管理层的积极表态、利润率的改善以及零售业务的稳健表现，缓解了市场对亚马逊在 AI 竞赛中落后的担忧。
CEO Andy Jassy 表示，AWS 的增长“达到了自 2022 年以来未曾见过的速度”，显示出公司最具盈利能力的部门正重新加速。
随后第二个催化剂登场。周一，当 OpenAI 宣布与 AWS 达成 380 亿美元的合作协议后，亚马逊股价再次跳空高开。这笔重大交易使 ChatGPT 的开发商与亚马逊的云端基础设施联系更加紧密。根据协议，OpenAI 将在未来七年内使用 AWS 的计算资源，包括 Nvidia 芯片。除可观的潜在收入外，此举也强化了 AWS 在全球 AI 发展核心中的地位，并降低了 OpenAI 对微软 Azure 的依赖。对亚马逊而言，这无疑是对其近期 AI 投资的有力验证，也标志着其云计算业务正重获竞争动能。
高动能突破需要纪律操作
从技术面来看，亚马逊周线图显示股价突破新高并伴随成交量放大。日线图则清晰反映出市场情绪的迅速转变，两次连续的跳空几乎形成指数型的上升轨迹。这类缺口往往象征市场在快速重定价时的“足迹”，投资者急于调整仓位以反映新信息的强度。对亚马逊而言，财报与 OpenAI 合作的双重催化几乎重置了市场对未来增长的预期。
然而，如此爆发性的走势同样要求交易者保持纪律。双缺口既可能代表动能延续，也可能是短线超涨信号。短线交易者将密切关注股价能否稳在突破区上方整固；若能在高位盘整，则有机会构筑新一波上升基础。但若买盘热度减弱、下方缺口开始回补，则可能意味着行情已提前透支。
目前整体趋势依然明显偏多，受益于基本面改善与投资需求的上升。关键问题已不在于亚马逊的故事是否改变，而在于股价能否在这波情绪性重估后稳住。两次快速跳空上扬意味着市场已全面意识到亚马逊在 AI 领域的潜力。
AMZN 周线图
过往表现并非未来结果的可靠指标
AMZN 日线图
过往表现并非未来结果的可靠指标
免责声明 ：本文仅供信息与学习用途，不构成投资建议，也未考虑任何投资者的个人财务状况或投资目标。任何与过往绩效相关的资料均非未来表现的可靠指标。
差价合约（CFD）及点差投注属高杠杆投资产品，风险极高，可能导致资金迅速亏损。**85.24% 的零售投资账户在进行 CFD 与点差交易时出现亏损。**请确保您了解这些产品的运作方式，并谨慎评估自身是否能承担高风险损失。
ETHUSDT｜4H 节奏管理：11/5–6 减仓锁利；3500–3700 等信号再空一句话总结：
自 10/27 高点后，ETH 已完成约 -28% 的第一段下跌，建议 11/5–6 分批锁利，待 3500–3700 区间出现明确空头再启动信号后，再执行第二段。
——————————————
Why（逻辑）
10/26–11/03：ETH 在 4400 阻力区反复钝化后转弱；
11/02 起：美元再启动 + Crypto 广度同步转弱；
当前价 3.2k 附近，已接近前期供给区下沿，短线追空风险上升。
——————————————
Plan（执行）
11/5–6：减仓 30–50%，锁定第一段收益，保留部分底仓。
二次入场观察区：3500–3700；
条件满足再空（满足 3/5 即可）：
1️⃣ H1/H4 出现两根反包；
2️⃣ M15/M5 出现 v6/v7 下拐；
3️⃣ Crypto10 广度下降；
4️⃣ OI/资金费率转正→再转负；
5️⃣ DXY/美债同步上拐。
——————————————
Invalidate（失效）
H4 收盘 > 3920：减半仓观望；
D1 收盘 > 4050：脚本暂停；
D1 收盘 > 4400：空头计划终止。
btc逢高空开单位置是102395，三倍空
止盈位置设置在95554左右
那里会有大量空单止盈，等反弹上去之后，再看是做哪个方向
95xxx的地方是btc的支撑，如果没跌破还不能看它的下跌趋势
耐心等一个位置。
ETH/110402日线看跌但力度不那么强
关键看4小时能在3400附近
反弹到强区域那么大概
率这个OB不会背跌破，在
1小时看已经具备反弹的基础
了，大概率是要走一波反弹的，
关键还是反弹力度3700为分水岭
反弹到强区域大概率会在OB
撑住但也要结合走势来看
“Gold Macro Trend 2018–2025 ”Hey everyone! Let’s fix the MA labels first—my bad earlier! It’s: white = 6-month MA, green = 1-year MA, yellow = 18-month MA, red = 2-year MA. Now let’s dive back into this gold daily chart, tying it to 2025’s global macro economy. Why’s this rally so enduring? Why do slopes swing from mellow to steep? Macro economics is the real hidden driver!
1. Trend Structure: A Step-by-Step Bull Market Fueled by Macro
Gold’s 2018-2025 move is a three-stage ride: macro logic kicks in → technicals confirm → money floods in. Every upswing locks into key macro beats:
1. Bottoming Phase (2018-Mid 2022): Strategic Buying Amid Macro Jitters
The world was all over the place back then: U.S. trade protectionism heated up, China-U.S. tensions rose, and after the Fed’s aggressive 2018 rate hikes, markets started betting on looser policy. Global cash scrambled for safe havens.On the chart: Prices bounced around lows, while the 6-month (white), 1-year (green), 18-month (yellow), and 2-year (red) MAs shifted from scattered to converging upward. That’s sovereign funds and central banks quietly piling in. WGC data shows central banks bought gold nonstop—they were hedging against shaky dollar credibility and rising geopolitical risks, laying the groundwork for the bull run.
2. Rally Kickoff (Mid 2022-2024): Macro Meets Technical Breakthrough
From 2022 onward, macro drivers went full throttle: the Russia-Ukraine war sparked safe-haven buys, the Fed’s brutal rate hikes (to fight inflation) shifted to rate-cut hints in 2023, and de-dollarization picked up steam (dollar’s share in global reserves kept falling).Technicals followed suit: Prices broke out of a long consolidation, rallying steadily along the 6-month (white) and 1-year (green) MAs with a gradually steeper slope. That’s institutional money pouring in. Macro-wise, gold had three winning cards—inflation hedge, safe haven, de-dollarization. Technically, MAs formed a bullish alignment, and every pullback to the 1-year (green) MA was a buying chance. The rally had serious staying power.
3. Accelerated Sprint (Late 2024-2025): Macro Hype + Emotional Frenzy
2025’s macro backdrop is gold’s dream: The Fed cut rates twice (down to 3.75%-4%) and stopped quantitative tightening, fueling global liquidity hopes. Meanwhile, Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts dragged on, the IMF cut global growth to 2.7%, and safe-haven demand stayed red-hot. Most importantly, central bank gold buying surged—220 tons in Q3 2025, with 43% of central banks planning more purchases.On the chart: The slope spiked to nearly 70 degrees, prices soaring away from the 6-month (white) MA. That’s retail investors and short-term traders chasing the hype. Macro logic (rate cuts + safe havens + central bank buys) lit a fire, and technical breakthroughs amplified gains. But it’s also sowing seeds of a pullback—short-term overbought conditions and profit-taking pressure are building.
2. MA Code: Macro Money’s Cost Consensus
With the correct MA labels (white: 6-month, green: 1-year, yellow: 18-month, red: 2-year), each MA is a cost floor for different macro players, backed by solid logic:
1. 6-Month MA (White): Institutions’ Policy Radar
This is institutional investors’ (6-12 month holdings) policy compass. The Fed’s 2025 rate-cut pace and inflation data swing their gold positions.
When the Fed hints at cuts, institutions push prices up along this MA—steady slope means policy expectations match money flows.
If hot inflation sparks rate-hike fears, prices may test this MA, but as long as rate cuts are on track, institutions will step in to buy.
2. 1-Year MA (Green): Long-Term Money’s Safety Net
This is the macro floor for long-term investors (1-2 year holdings), rooted in de-dollarization and geopolitical risks.In 2025, central banks keep buying gold and reducing dollar reserves—this trend keeps the 1-year (green) MA rising, acting as the bull run’s anchor. Even above $4,000/oz, central banks don’t stop—they’re safeguarding financial security. As long as this MA holds, gold’s long-term bull case stays intact.
3. 18-Month (Yellow) & 2-Year (Red) MAs: Super-Long-Term Money’s Big Picture
These are strategic cost lines for sovereign funds and central banks, reflecting global economic restructuring.
The 2-year (red) MA’s upward trend mirrors the end of dollar dominance—OMFIF predicts the dollar’s reserve share will drop to 52% by 2035, boosting gold’s value as a non-sovereign asset.
The 18-month (yellow) MA’s support ties to geopolitical endurance—with conflicts ongoing and global nuclear warheads rising for the first time in 30 years, super-long money holds tight, making this MA a rock-solid support.
3. Slope Secrets: Macro Sentiment Thermometer
Slope changes show how intense macro sentiment is and how fast money is flowing—different slopes mean different macro scenarios:
1. Gentle Slope (2022-Early 2024, 40-50 Degrees): Macro Logic Unfolding Steadily
A steady, slow climb matched gradual macro progress: Fed near the end of hikes → rate-cut hopes, on-again-off-again geopolitics, and steady central bank buying.Institutions called the shots here, slowly rallying and pulling back to the 1-year (green) MA to shake out weak hands while waiting for macro confirmation. For traders, this was the sweet spot—clear macro logic + solid technical support. Pullbacks to the 1-year (green) MA were low-risk buys, backed by both macro and technicals.
2. Steep Slope (Late 2024-2025, Nearly 70 Degrees): Macro Hype Overdrive
A sharp slope means macro sentiment went wild: Fed rate cuts landed, central bank buying surprised to the upside, geopolitics worsened—markets shouted “gold only goes up,” drawing short-term traders and retail.But this slope is risky: Macro expectations are overstretched. The Fed has limited room for more cuts, and any de-escalation in conflicts could trigger a quick exit by speculators. Technically, prices are way too far from the 6-month (white) MA—mean reversion (pullback to longer MAs) is inevitable to cool down overheated expectations.
3. Consolidation Ahead: Macro Reckoning + Technical Repair
After a steep run, consolidation is all about balancing macro expectations. Markets wait for the Fed’s next move and geopolitical updates, while profit-takers lock in gains.
If macro logic holds (rate cuts + safe havens), prices will stabilize quickly after testing the 1-year (green) MA and rally again.
If macro shifts (e.g., inflation sparks rate-hike fears), we may see a deeper pullback to the 18-month (yellow) MA. But as long as the 2-year (red) MA climbs, de-dollarization and central bank buying will limit losses—adjustments are just opportunities.
4. Hidden Risks & Opportunities: Macro + Technical Confirmation
For real trading, you need both macro and technical signals to align—otherwise, it’s a low-probability bet:
1. Risk Signals: Macro Shift + Technical Breakdown
Macro: Fed unexpectedly turns hawkish (pauses cuts), China-U.S. trade tensions ease, geopolitics cool down—safe-haven demand dries up.
Technical: Prices close below the 1-year (green) MA for weeks, and the 6-month (white) MA turns down. That’s a double whammy—macro expectations reversed + money fleeing. Cut positions fast.
2. Opportunity Signals: Macro + Technical Alignment
Short-term: Stable macro (Fed stays on rate-cut path), prices pull back to the 6-month (white) MA with shrinking volume. Light positions for a quick bounce.
Medium-term: Macro gets stronger (better-than-expected central bank buying, geopolitics worsen), prices pull back to the 1-year (green) MA with bullish candlesticks. That’s institutional money buying—ideal for medium-term positions.
Long-term: Macro trends hold (de-dollarization + global uncertainty), prices test the 2-year (red) MA and stabilize. That’s a strategic buy for super-long funds—go big if you’re in it for the long haul.
5. Wrap-Up: Macro Sets Direction, Technicals Time Entries
Here’s the core: Macro economics decides gold’s long-term direction (rate cuts + de-dollarization + safe havens), while technicals (MAs, slopes, consolidation) dictate the timing. Trade with macro as your foundation and technicals as your guide:
Long-term investors: Watch the 2-year (red) MA + macro trends. As long as the Fed’s rate-cut cycle continues, central banks keep buying, and de-dollarization persists, hold on—short-term swings are just noise.
Medium-term traders: Focus on the 1-year (green) MA + policy events. After Fed meetings or WGC data releases, buy on pullbacks to the 1-year (green) MA if it holds, sell if it breaks. Follow the macro rhythm for swings.
Short-term traders: Stick to the 6-month (white) MA + sentiment. Buy when prices rally along it, dip-buy on pullbacks, and take quick profits. Don’t fight the macro trend—never short gold in a rate-cut cycle!
Simply put, this gold chart is a technical mirror of 2025’s global macro economy. MA support reflects macro money’s consensus, slope changes show sentiment swings, and consolidation marks macro expectation rebalancing. Nail the macro-technical alignment, and you’ll ride this bull run profitably—no more second-guessing!
(Note: This analysis is based on historical charts and macro data, not investment advice. Gold trading is risky—geopolitics, policy shifts, and liquidity can trigger big moves. Trade wisely!)
XAU/USD: 鲍威尔 vs. 折扣区交易员们，大家好！让我们深入分析黄金（XAU/USD）。目前价格正处于关键的拉锯战中：美联储（Fed）的鹰派态度正在推高美元，而美国政府可能关门的政治风险却为黄金提供了强有力的支撑。机会就在这里！
📰 关键基本面驱动因素 (密切关注):
美联储与鲍威尔的立场: 12月美联储降息的可能性已显著下降。这表明了一种鹰派观点，通常会使美元走强，并对黄金价格构成下行压力。
美国政府关门风险: 人们日益担心，长期停摆可能会损害美国经济。这种经济不确定性作为避险资产，为黄金带来了强劲的顺风。
📉 技术分析 (图表视角):
我们观察到 XAU/USD 正在一个上升楔形（通常是看跌反转信号）形态内运行，目前正朝着我们称之为战略支撑区（折扣区）的关键价格水平移动。
🔥 战略支撑区 (折扣区): $3,941 - $3,953。这是一个具有吸引力的价格区域，耐心的买家通常会在此寻找**买入（做多）**机会，以确保良好的风险/回报比。
主要阻力区: $4,004 - $4,025。
🎯 我们的双向交易策略:
1. 看涨情景 (做多):
行动: 当价格触及 $3,941 - $3,953 支撑区域并显示出强烈的反转信号（如拒绝蜡烛图）时，等待买入（做多）。
目标: $4,004 - $4,025。
2. 看跌情景 (做空):
行动: 如果价格在 $4,004 - $4,025 阻力区遭到强烈拒绝，或者价格果断跌破并收于 $3,941 以下，则卖出（做空）。
目标: $3,900以下。
🚨 重要警告: 本周必须密切关注 FOMC 成员的任何进一步声明。它们将决定短期的方向。明智交易，务必使用止损！
#xauusd #forex #鲍威尔 #美联储 #技术分析 #黄金 #usd #交易 #tradingview
