开始

趋势分析

“Gold Macro Trend 2018–2025 ”Hey everyone! Let’s fix the MA labels first—my bad earlier! It’s: white = 6-month MA, green = 1-year MA, yellow = 18-month MA, red = 2-year MA. Now let’s dive back into this gold daily chart, tying it to 2025’s global macro economy. Why’s this rally so enduring? Why do slopes swing from mellow to steep? Macro economics is the real hidden driver! 1. Trend Structure: A Step-by-Step Bull Market Fueled by Macro Gold’s 2018-2025 move is a three-stage ride: macro logic kicks in → technicals confirm → money floods in. Every upswing locks into key macro beats: 1. Bottoming Phase (2018-Mid 2022): Strategic Buying Amid Macro Jitters The world was all over the place back then: U.S. trade protectionism heated up, China-U.S. tensions rose, and after the Fed’s aggressive 2018 rate hikes, markets started betting on looser policy. Global cash scrambled for safe havens.On the chart: Prices bounced around lows, while the 6-month (white), 1-year (green), 18-month (yellow), and 2-year (red) MAs shifted from scattered to converging upward. That’s sovereign funds and central banks quietly piling in. WGC data shows central banks bought gold nonstop—they were hedging against shaky dollar credibility and rising geopolitical risks, laying the groundwork for the bull run. 2. Rally Kickoff (Mid 2022-2024): Macro Meets Technical Breakthrough From 2022 onward, macro drivers went full throttle: the Russia-Ukraine war sparked safe-haven buys, the Fed’s brutal rate hikes (to fight inflation) shifted to rate-cut hints in 2023, and de-dollarization picked up steam (dollar’s share in global reserves kept falling).Technicals followed suit: Prices broke out of a long consolidation, rallying steadily along the 6-month (white) and 1-year (green) MAs with a gradually steeper slope. That’s institutional money pouring in. Macro-wise, gold had three winning cards—inflation hedge, safe haven, de-dollarization. Technically, MAs formed a bullish alignment, and every pullback to the 1-year (green) MA was a buying chance. The rally had serious staying power. 3. Accelerated Sprint (Late 2024-2025): Macro Hype + Emotional Frenzy 2025’s macro backdrop is gold’s dream: The Fed cut rates twice (down to 3.75%-4%) and stopped quantitative tightening, fueling global liquidity hopes. Meanwhile, Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts dragged on, the IMF cut global growth to 2.7%, and safe-haven demand stayed red-hot. Most importantly, central bank gold buying surged—220 tons in Q3 2025, with 43% of central banks planning more purchases.On the chart: The slope spiked to nearly 70 degrees, prices soaring away from the 6-month (white) MA. That’s retail investors and short-term traders chasing the hype. Macro logic (rate cuts + safe havens + central bank buys) lit a fire, and technical breakthroughs amplified gains. But it’s also sowing seeds of a pullback—short-term overbought conditions and profit-taking pressure are building. 2. MA Code: Macro Money’s Cost Consensus With the correct MA labels (white: 6-month, green: 1-year, yellow: 18-month, red: 2-year), each MA is a cost floor for different macro players, backed by solid logic: 1. 6-Month MA (White): Institutions’ Policy Radar This is institutional investors’ (6-12 month holdings) policy compass. The Fed’s 2025 rate-cut pace and inflation data swing their gold positions. When the Fed hints at cuts, institutions push prices up along this MA—steady slope means policy expectations match money flows. If hot inflation sparks rate-hike fears, prices may test this MA, but as long as rate cuts are on track, institutions will step in to buy. 2. 1-Year MA (Green): Long-Term Money’s Safety Net This is the macro floor for long-term investors (1-2 year holdings), rooted in de-dollarization and geopolitical risks.In 2025, central banks keep buying gold and reducing dollar reserves—this trend keeps the 1-year (green) MA rising, acting as the bull run’s anchor. Even above $4,000/oz, central banks don’t stop—they’re safeguarding financial security. As long as this MA holds, gold’s long-term bull case stays intact. 3. 18-Month (Yellow) & 2-Year (Red) MAs: Super-Long-Term Money’s Big Picture These are strategic cost lines for sovereign funds and central banks, reflecting global economic restructuring. The 2-year (red) MA’s upward trend mirrors the end of dollar dominance—OMFIF predicts the dollar’s reserve share will drop to 52% by 2035, boosting gold’s value as a non-sovereign asset. The 18-month (yellow) MA’s support ties to geopolitical endurance—with conflicts ongoing and global nuclear warheads rising for the first time in 30 years, super-long money holds tight, making this MA a rock-solid support. 3. Slope Secrets: Macro Sentiment Thermometer Slope changes show how intense macro sentiment is and how fast money is flowing—different slopes mean different macro scenarios: 1. Gentle Slope (2022-Early 2024, 40-50 Degrees): Macro Logic Unfolding Steadily A steady, slow climb matched gradual macro progress: Fed near the end of hikes → rate-cut hopes, on-again-off-again geopolitics, and steady central bank buying.Institutions called the shots here, slowly rallying and pulling back to the 1-year (green) MA to shake out weak hands while waiting for macro confirmation. For traders, this was the sweet spot—clear macro logic + solid technical support. Pullbacks to the 1-year (green) MA were low-risk buys, backed by both macro and technicals. 2. Steep Slope (Late 2024-2025, Nearly 70 Degrees): Macro Hype Overdrive A sharp slope means macro sentiment went wild: Fed rate cuts landed, central bank buying surprised to the upside, geopolitics worsened—markets shouted “gold only goes up,” drawing short-term traders and retail.But this slope is risky: Macro expectations are overstretched. The Fed has limited room for more cuts, and any de-escalation in conflicts could trigger a quick exit by speculators. Technically, prices are way too far from the 6-month (white) MA—mean reversion (pullback to longer MAs) is inevitable to cool down overheated expectations. 3. Consolidation Ahead: Macro Reckoning + Technical Repair After a steep run, consolidation is all about balancing macro expectations. Markets wait for the Fed’s next move and geopolitical updates, while profit-takers lock in gains. If macro logic holds (rate cuts + safe havens), prices will stabilize quickly after testing the 1-year (green) MA and rally again. If macro shifts (e.g., inflation sparks rate-hike fears), we may see a deeper pullback to the 18-month (yellow) MA. But as long as the 2-year (red) MA climbs, de-dollarization and central bank buying will limit losses—adjustments are just opportunities. 4. Hidden Risks & Opportunities: Macro + Technical Confirmation For real trading, you need both macro and technical signals to align—otherwise, it’s a low-probability bet: 1. Risk Signals: Macro Shift + Technical Breakdown Macro: Fed unexpectedly turns hawkish (pauses cuts), China-U.S. trade tensions ease, geopolitics cool down—safe-haven demand dries up. Technical: Prices close below the 1-year (green) MA for weeks, and the 6-month (white) MA turns down. That’s a double whammy—macro expectations reversed + money fleeing. Cut positions fast. 2. Opportunity Signals: Macro + Technical Alignment Short-term: Stable macro (Fed stays on rate-cut path), prices pull back to the 6-month (white) MA with shrinking volume. Light positions for a quick bounce. Medium-term: Macro gets stronger (better-than-expected central bank buying, geopolitics worsen), prices pull back to the 1-year (green) MA with bullish candlesticks. That’s institutional money buying—ideal for medium-term positions. Long-term: Macro trends hold (de-dollarization + global uncertainty), prices test the 2-year (red) MA and stabilize. That’s a strategic buy for super-long funds—go big if you’re in it for the long haul. 5. Wrap-Up: Macro Sets Direction, Technicals Time Entries Here’s the core: Macro economics decides gold’s long-term direction (rate cuts + de-dollarization + safe havens), while technicals (MAs, slopes, consolidation) dictate the timing. Trade with macro as your foundation and technicals as your guide: Long-term investors: Watch the 2-year (red) MA + macro trends. As long as the Fed’s rate-cut cycle continues, central banks keep buying, and de-dollarization persists, hold on—short-term swings are just noise. Medium-term traders: Focus on the 1-year (green) MA + policy events. After Fed meetings or WGC data releases, buy on pullbacks to the 1-year (green) MA if it holds, sell if it breaks. Follow the macro rhythm for swings. Short-term traders: Stick to the 6-month (white) MA + sentiment. Buy when prices rally along it, dip-buy on pullbacks, and take quick profits. Don’t fight the macro trend—never short gold in a rate-cut cycle! Simply put, this gold chart is a technical mirror of 2025’s global macro economy. MA support reflects macro money’s consensus, slope changes show sentiment swings, and consolidation marks macro expectation rebalancing. Nail the macro-technical alignment, and you’ll ride this bull run profitably—no more second-guessing! (Note: This analysis is based on historical charts and macro data, not investment advice. Gold trading is risky—geopolitics, policy shifts, and liquidity can trigger big moves. Trade wisely!)
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
由chenchencheng2011提供
XAU/USD: 鲍威尔 vs. 折扣区交易员们，大家好！让我们深入分析黄金（XAU/USD）。目前价格正处于关键的拉锯战中：美联储（Fed）的鹰派态度正在推高美元，而美国政府可能关门的政治风险却为黄金提供了强有力的支撑。机会就在这里！ 📰 关键基本面驱动因素 (密切关注): 美联储与鲍威尔的立场: 12月美联储降息的可能性已显著下降。这表明了一种鹰派观点，通常会使美元走强，并对黄金价格构成下行压力。 美国政府关门风险: 人们日益担心，长期停摆可能会损害美国经济。这种经济不确定性作为避险资产，为黄金带来了强劲的顺风。 📉 技术分析 (图表视角): 我们观察到 XAU/USD 正在一个上升楔形（通常是看跌反转信号）形态内运行，目前正朝着我们称之为战略支撑区（折扣区）的关键价格水平移动。 🔥 战略支撑区 (折扣区): $3,941 - $3,953。这是一个具有吸引力的价格区域，耐心的买家通常会在此寻找**买入（做多）**机会，以确保良好的风险/回报比。 主要阻力区: $4,004 - $4,025。 🎯 我们的双向交易策略: 1. 看涨情景 (做多): 行动: 当价格触及 $3,941 - $3,953 支撑区域并显示出强烈的反转信号（如拒绝蜡烛图）时，等待买入（做多）。 目标: $4,004 - $4,025。 2. 看跌情景 (做空): 行动: 如果价格在 $4,004 - $4,025 阻力区遭到强烈拒绝，或者价格果断跌破并收于 $3,941 以下，则卖出（做空）。 目标: $3,900以下。 🚨 重要警告: 本周必须密切关注 FOMC 成员的任何进一步声明。它们将决定短期的方向。明智交易，务必使用止损！ #xauusd #forex #鲍威尔 #美联储 #技术分析 #黄金 #usd #交易 #tradingview
OANDA:XAUUSD
由Jeremy_NPC提供
sol计划更新跌破通道了， 开始进入大三角区间了， 也就是135左右的sol马上就能看到了。 135不敢说全面转向，但是空单都会在135左右出来，应该会有小反弹。 可惜我又踏空了做空这一笔交易 我还在被自己的恐惧和贪婪支配 没有专注执行自己的计划，只是不断的在分析 如果我干现货做多，那按道理应该可以2倍-3倍杠杆做空 但是我为什么不敢 就是因为我还差的太远太远了 现在只是一个画图表的垃圾
做空
由jiucainainai提供
黄金在4,000美元以下暂停，市场消化美联储鹰派语气🔍 市场背景 黄金在亚洲早盘中难以找到方向，在美联储鹰派言论削弱看涨势头后，徘徊在4,000美元心理关口下方。 主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，今年再降息“不是必然”，这使得收益率得到支撑，避险需求保持平衡。 与此同时，ISM制造业PMI降至48.7，表明动能减弱，但不足以改变美联储的谨慎立场。 随着12月降息的可能性接近70%，黄金仍被困在政策不确定性和疲软的宏观情绪之间。 📊 技术展望 (H1–H4) 价格在3,963美元和4,024美元之间的紧密结构中整合，显示出在潜在扩展动作前的压缩。 3,984美元–3,963美元区域作为短期流动性支撑，与上升的日内趋势线一致。 关键水平 • 💎 流动性支撑：3,963美元 – 3,984美元 • 🎯 即时阻力：4,024美元 • ⚙️ 看涨目标：4,046美元（流动性扫荡 + 扩展区） • ⚠️ 失效：低于3,923美元，偏向转为中性 若能清晰突破4,024美元，可能引发向4,046美元的移动，而未能保持在3,963美元以上可能会在买家重新入场前引发另一轮流动性抓取。 🎯 MMFLOW 观点 聪明资金保持耐心。 只要3,963美元持稳，回调被视为积累而非弱点。 但只有当流动性确认在4,024美元以上时，信念才会恢复——这就是动能与意图一致的地方。 ⚜️ MMFLOW 洞察： “流动性不追逐价格——它为价格创造路径。”
OANDA:XAUUSD做多
由MMFlowTrading提供
1
黄金回调后迎来最后一跌🧭 每日交易计划 – 黄金 (XAU/USD) 📅 日期: 2025年11月04日 📊 主要时间框架: H2确认 + M30执行 🎯 策略: SMC + 流动性抓取 + OB拒绝 市场背景 黄金目前在3970区域交易，M30时间框架上明显的结构突破（BOS）确认了短期看跌压力。在H2图表上，价格保持在下降通道中，自4128 → 4006以来形成了更低的高点，与整体看跌情绪一致。 最近M30上的CHoCH信号表明买家曾两次试图捍卫3980–3970区域，但未能维持动能。流动性被扫过次要低点，暗示可能继续向3960–3955附近的更深流动性池延续。 关键水平 卖出区1: 4025–4027 卖出区2: 4011–4013 买入区1: 3980–3978 买入区2: 3970–3968 交易思路 当前偏向: 看跌，预期回调后继续下行。 如果价格回调至4011–4027，观察M5/M15上的拒绝和BOS以进入空头。 TP1: 3978, TP2: 3960 SL: 高于4027 (≈6点) 或者，如果价格扫过3968以下的流动性并显示强烈的CHoCH向上，考虑短线回到3980–3990，SL低于3962 (≈6点)。 确认 M30: CHoCH后确认BOS向下 H2: 阻力区拒绝与趋势线+EMA汇合一致 RSI显示轻微看跌动能，尚未超卖 → 有下行延续空间 展望 只要价格保持在4027以下，看跌结构仍然有效。关注3960–3970支撑区的流动性抓取，然后可能出现短期回调。若突破4030将使此计划无效并将偏向转为中性。 📌 计划总结 🎯 在4011–4027卖出回调 🎯 TP: 3978 / 3960 🛑 SL: 4027 (6点)
OANDA:XAUUSD做多
由Anneliese_Engel提供