Prices high above the moving average (MA) or low below it are likely to be remedied in the future by a reverse price movement as stated in an Article by Denis Alajbeg, Zoran Bubas and Dina Vasic published in International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management
Here comes a study to indicate the idea of this article, Price Distance to its Moving Averages (P/MA Ratio)
The analysis expressed in the paper indicates that there is a connection between the distance of the prices to moving averages and subsequent returns : portfolios of stocks with lower prices to moving averages generally outperformed portfolios of stocks with higher prices to moving averages. This “overextended” effect is more pronounced when using shorter moving averages of 20 and 50 days, and is especially strong in short-term holding periods like one and two weeks. The highest annual returns are recorded when buying in the range of 0-5% below shorter moving averages of 20/50 days, and 0-10% below longer moving averages of 100/200 days. However, buying very far below almost all moving averages on almost all holding periods produces the lowest returns.
The concept of this study recognizes three different modes of action.
In a clearly established upward trend traders should be buying when prices are near or below the MA line and selling when prices move too far above the MA.
Conversely, in downward trend stocks should be shorted when reaching or going above the moving average and covered when they drop too far below the MA line.
In a sideways movement traders are advised to buy if the price is too low below the moving average and sell when it goes too far above it
Short-term traders can expect to outperform in a one or two week time window if buying stocks with lower prices compared to their 20 and 50 SMA/EMA, one to two-week holding periods is quite high, ranging from 72,09% to 90,61% for the SMA(20, 50) and 85,03% to 87,5% for the EMA(20, 50). The best results for the SMA 20 and 50, on average, are concentrated in the region of 0-5% below the MA for the majority of holding periods. Buying very far below almost all MA in almost all holding periods turns out to be the worst possible option
Candle patterns, momentum could be used in conjunction with this indicator for better results. Try Colored DMI and Ichimoku colored SuperTrend by DGT
Here comes a study to indicate the idea of this article, Price Distance to its Moving Averages (P/MA Ratio)
The analysis expressed in the paper indicates that there is a connection between the distance of the prices to moving averages and subsequent returns : portfolios of stocks with lower prices to moving averages generally outperformed portfolios of stocks with higher prices to moving averages. This “overextended” effect is more pronounced when using shorter moving averages of 20 and 50 days, and is especially strong in short-term holding periods like one and two weeks. The highest annual returns are recorded when buying in the range of 0-5% below shorter moving averages of 20/50 days, and 0-10% below longer moving averages of 100/200 days. However, buying very far below almost all moving averages on almost all holding periods produces the lowest returns.
The concept of this study recognizes three different modes of action.
In a clearly established upward trend traders should be buying when prices are near or below the MA line and selling when prices move too far above the MA.
Conversely, in downward trend stocks should be shorted when reaching or going above the moving average and covered when they drop too far below the MA line.
In a sideways movement traders are advised to buy if the price is too low below the moving average and sell when it goes too far above it
Short-term traders can expect to outperform in a one or two week time window if buying stocks with lower prices compared to their 20 and 50 SMA/EMA, one to two-week holding periods is quite high, ranging from 72,09% to 90,61% for the SMA(20, 50) and 85,03% to 87,5% for the EMA(20, 50). The best results for the SMA 20 and 50, on average, are concentrated in the region of 0-5% below the MA for the majority of holding periods. Buying very far below almost all MA in almost all holding periods turns out to be the worst possible option
Candle patterns, momentum could be used in conjunction with this indicator for better results. Try Colored DMI and Ichimoku colored SuperTrend by DGT
版本注释:
Price distance to its 10 * MA added as second line for better judgment. additionally the wide and narrow states of MA and 10 * MA can be used with analysis as well
Secondly, Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is added as option besides SMA as it has been analyzed with the article stated above
Secondly, Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is added as option besides SMA as it has been analyzed with the article stated above
版本注释:
small update : price to it’s slow moving average ratio (convergence/divergence) line made configurable by user
版本注释:
small update : theshold lines made settabale
版本注释:
Price Distance to its MA (P/MA) study when look closely you will observe similarities to The Relative Strength Index (RSI). Because of its similarity to RSI, the P/MA can be used in a similar way
Over bought and over sold levels needs to be adjusted based on the market. For crypto it is suggested 25/-25 (default setting) for forex and stocks 10/-10
Over bought and over sold levels needs to be adjusted based on the market. For crypto it is suggested 25/-25 (default setting) for forex and stocks 10/-10
版本注释:
Display format updated as percentages since we measure changes in percentage with this study
版本注释:
In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. the standard deviation is commonly used to measure confidence in statistical conclusions
the percentage of values 68.27%, 95.45% and 99.73% of the values lie within one, two and three standard deviations of the mean. nearly all values are taken to lie within three standard deviations of the mean, and thus it is empirically useful to treat 99.7% probability as near certainty.
Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger, is a well-known technical analysis tool defined by a set of trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average (SMA) of a security's price
This update implements standard deviations concept adapted to fit the Price Distance to it's MA (P/MA) Indicator, with the aim to define threshold lines
the percentage of values 68.27%, 95.45% and 99.73% of the values lie within one, two and three standard deviations of the mean. nearly all values are taken to lie within three standard deviations of the mean, and thus it is empirically useful to treat 99.7% probability as near certainty.
Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger, is a well-known technical analysis tool defined by a set of trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average (SMA) of a security's price
This update implements standard deviations concept adapted to fit the Price Distance to it's MA (P/MA) Indicator, with the aim to define threshold lines
版本注释:
minor update :
* alert conditions added
- when fast price / moving average line crosses outer bands alerts can be triggered
* theshold bands default value settings reduced slightly
* alert conditions added
- when fast price / moving average line crosses outer bands alerts can be triggered
* theshold bands default value settings reduced slightly
版本注释:
█ enhancement
for trading opportunities - added additional method and/or confirmation method.
trading opportunity is considered when crossing of P/MA line (fast and/or slow) and its Moving Average line, more clearly when histogram changes direction, and ONLY in case when both trends have same direction (this is to avoid false signals). It is important to note that the moving average determines the direction
histogram (cycle indicator) is derived from the P/MA line. It is
By default the histogram for fast and slow P/MA will be displayed and alerts are also added for the new method introduced
The same approach is applied with the Lefort indicator that I have adapted earlier in Trading View, here is the link of the study STPMT by DGT, please check for further details with usage example that is applicable with this update
for trading opportunities - added additional method and/or confirmation method.
trading opportunity is considered when crossing of P/MA line (fast and/or slow) and its Moving Average line, more clearly when histogram changes direction, and ONLY in case when both trends have same direction (this is to avoid false signals). It is important to note that the moving average determines the direction
histogram (cycle indicator) is derived from the P/MA line. It is
cycle = pma – pma maBy default the histogram for fast and slow P/MA will be displayed and alerts are also added for the new method introduced
The same approach is applied with the Lefort indicator that I have adapted earlier in Trading View, here is the link of the study STPMT by DGT, please check for further details with usage example that is applicable with this update
版本注释:
minor update
- plotting title correction
- histogram plotting is now available as Candles or Columns
Special thanks to @AtomOfScent for his feedback and suggestion
- plotting title correction
- histogram plotting is now available as Candles or Columns
Special thanks to @AtomOfScent for his feedback and suggestion
版本注释:
minor update :
* Alert feature improvements
* Pine Script v5 update
* Alert feature improvements
* Pine Script v5 update
