TrendPredator ES

1月22日

The TrendPredator Essential (ES)

Stacey Burke, a seasoned trader and mentor, developed his trading system over the years, drawing insights from influential figures such as George Douglas Taylor, Tony Crabel, Steve Mauro, and Robert Schabacker. His popular system integrates select concepts from these experts into a consistent framework. While powerful, it is highly discretionary, requiring significant real-time analysis, which can be challenging for novice traders.

The TrendPredator ES indicator supports this approach by automating the essential analysis required to trade the system effectively and incorporating a mechanical bias and multi-timeframe concept.
It provides value to traders by significantly reducing the time needed for session preparation and offering relevant chart analysis and signals for live trading through real-time updates and a unique consolidated table format.

The Stacey Burke Master Pattern

Inspired by Taylor’s 3-day cycle and Steve Mauro’s work with “Beat the Market Maker,” Burke’s system views markets as cyclical, driven by the manipulative patterns of market makers. These patterns often trap traders at the extremes of moves above or below significant levels with peak formations, then reverse to utilize their liquidity, initiating the next phase. Breakouts away from these traps often lead to range expansions, as described by Tony Crabel and Robert Schabacker. After multiple consecutive breakouts, especially after the psychological number three, overextension might develop. A break in structure may then lead to reversals or pullbacks. Burke’s system is designed to track these cycles on the daily timeframe and provides signals and trade setups to navigate along them.

Bias Logic and Multi-Timeframe Concept

The indicator covers the basic signals of his system:
- First Red Day (FRD): Bearish break in structure, signalling weak longs in the market.
- First Green Day (FGD): Bullish break in structure signalling weak shorts in the markt.
- Three Days of Longs (3DL): Overextension signalling potential weak longs in the market.
- Three Days of Shorts (3DS): Overextension signalling potential weak shorts in the market.
- Inside Day (ID): Contraction, signalling potential impulsive reversal or range expansion move.

It enhances the original system by introducing:

Structured Bias Logic:
Tracks bias by following how price trades concerning the last previous candle high or low that was hit. For example if the high was hit, we are bullish above and bearish below.
- Bullish state: Breakout (BO), Fakeout Low (FOL)
- Bearish state: Breakdown (BD), Fakeout High (FOH)

Multi-Timeframe Perspective:
- Tracks all signals across H4, H8, D, W, and M timeframes, to look for alignment and follow trends and momentum in a mechanical way.

The indicator monitors the bias and signals of the system across all relevant timeframes and automates the related graphical chart analysis to generate the information needed for the trader to identify key setups. Additional to the SB pattern, the system helps to identify the higher timeframe situation and follow the moves driven by other timeframe traders.

Example: Full Bullish Cycle on the Daily Timeframe with Signals

- The Trap/Peak Formation
The market breaks down from a previous day’s and maybe week’s low—potentially after multiple breakdowns—but fails to move lower and pulls back up to form a peak formation low and closes as a first green day.
Signal: Bullish daily and weekly fakeout low; three consecutive breakdown days (1W Curr FOL, 1D Curr FOL, BO 3S).

- Pullback and Consolidation
The next day pulls further up after first green day signal, potentially consolidates inside the previous day’s range.
Signal: Fakeout low and first green day closing as an inside day (1D Curr IS, Prev FOL, First G).

- Range Expansion/Trend
The following day breaks up through the previous day’s high, launching a range expansion away from the trap.
Signal: Bullish daily breakout of an inside day (1D Curr BO, Prev IS).

- Overextension
After multiple consecutive breakouts, the market reaches a state of overextension, signalling a possible reversal or pullback.
Signal: Three days of breakout longs (1D Curr BO, Prev BO, BO 3L).

Note: This is only one possible scenario; there are many variations and combinations.

Example Chart: Full Bullish Cycle with Correlated Signals



Note: The signals shown along the move are manually added illustrations. The indicator shows these in realtime in the table at the bottom right. This is only one possible scenario; there are many variations and combinations.

Due to the fractal nature of markets, this cycle can be observed across timeframes. The strongest setups show multi-timeframe alignment. For example, a peak formation and potential reversal on the daily timeframe has high probability and follow-through if it also aligns with bearish signals on higher timeframes (e.g., weekly/monthly BD/FOH) and confirmation on lower timeframes (H4/H8 FOH/BD). With this perspective the system enables the trader to follow the trend and momentum and identify rollover points in a very differentiated way.

Detailed Features and Options

1. Historic Highs and Lows

Displays historic highs and lows per timeframe for added context, enabling users to track sequences over time.
Timeframes: H4, H8, D, W, M
Options: Customize for timeframes shown, number of historic candles per timeframe, colors, formats, and labels.



2. Previous High and Low Extensions

Displays extended previous levels (high, low, and close) for each timeframe to assess how price trades relative to these levels.
H4: P4H, P4L, P4C
H8: P8H, P8L, P8C
Daily: PDH, PDL, PDC
Weekly: PWH, PWL, PWC
Monthly: PMH, PML, PMC
Options: Fully customizable for timeframes shown, colors, formats, and labels.



3. Breach Lines

Tracks live market reactions (e.g., breakouts or fakeouts) per timeframe for the last previous high or low that was hit, highlighting these levels originating at the breached candle to indicate bias (color-coded).
Red: Bearish below
Green: Bullish above
H4: 4FOL, 4FOH, 4BO, 4BD
H8: 8FOL, 8FOH, 8BO, 8BD
D: dFOL, dFOH, dBO, dBD
W: wFOL, wFOH, wBO, wBD
M: mFOL, mFOH, mBO, mBD
Options: Fully customizable for timeframes shown, colors, formats, and labels.



4. Multi-Timeframe Table

Provides a real-time view of system signals, including:

Current Timeframe (Curr): Bias states.
- Breakout (green BO): Bullish after breaking above the previous high.
- Fakeout High (red FOH): Bearish after breaking above the previous high but pulling back down.
- Breakdown (red BD): Bearish after breaking below the previous low.
- Fakeout Low (green FOL): Bullish after breaking below the previous low but pulling back up.
- Inside (IS): Price trading neutral inside the previous range, taking the previous bias (color indicates the previous bias).

Previous Timeframe (Prev): Tracks last candle bias state and transitions dynamically.
- Bias for last candle: BO, FOH, BD, FOL in respective colors.
- Inside bar (yellow IS): Indicated as standalone signal.

Note: Also previous timeframes get constantly updated in real time to track the bias state in relation to the level that was hit. This means a BO can still lose the level and become a FOH, and vice versa, and a BD can still become a FOL, and vice versa. This is critical to see for example if traders that are trapped in that timeframe with a FOH or FOL are released. An inside bar stays fixed, though, since no level was hit in that timeframe.

Breakouts (BO): Breakout count 3 longs and 3 shorts.
- 3 Longs (red 3L): Bearish after three breakouts without hitting a previous low.
- 3 Shorts (green 3S): Bullish after three breakdowns without hitting a previous high.

First Countertrend Close (First): Tracks First Red or Green Day.
- First Green (G): After two consecutive red closes.
- First Red (R): After two consecutive green closes.

Options: Customizable font size and label colors.



Overall Options:
Toggle single feature groups on/off.
Customize H8 open/close time as an offset to UTC to be provider independent.
Colour settings for dark or bright backgrounds.


Using the Indicator for Trading

The automated analysis provided by the indicator can be used for thesis generation in preparation for a session as well as for live trading, leveraging the real-time updates. It is recommended to customize the settings accordingly, such as hiding the lower timeframes for thesis generation to keep the charts clean.

1. Setup Identification:
Follow the bias of daily and H8 timeframes. A setup always requires alignment of these.
Setup Types:
- Trend Trade: Trade in alignment with the previous day’s trend.
Example: Price above the previous day’s high → Focus on long setups (dBO, H8 FOL) until overextension or reversal signs appear (H8 BO 3L, First R).
- Reversal Trade: Identify reversal setups when lower timeframes show rollovers after higher timeframe weakness.
Example: Price below the previous day’s high after FOH → Look for reversal signals at the current high of day (H8 FOH, BO 3L, First R).

2. Context Assessment:
Evaluate alignment of higher timeframes (e.g., Month/Week, Week/Day). More alignment → Stronger setups. Conflicting situations → Setups invalidated.

3. Entry Confirmation:
Confirm entries based on H8 and H4 alignment and candle closes (e.g., M15 or M5 close after entering setup zone as confirmation).

Example Chart for Reversal Trade:




1. Setup Identification: FOH continuation after BO 3L overextension, confirmed by H8 FOH, First R.
2. Context Assessment: Month in FOL with bearish First R; Week in BO but bearishly overextended with BO 3L.
3. Entry Confirmation: H4 BD, M5 close.

Further recommendations:

- Higher timeframe context: TPO or volume profile indicators can be used to gain an even better overview.
- Entry confirmation: Momentum indicators like VWAP, Supertrend, or EMA are helpful for increasing precision. Additionally, tracking lower timeframe fakeouts can provide powerful confluence.
- Late session trading: Entries later in the session, such as during the 3rd hour of the NY session, offer better analysis and follow-through on setups.

Limitations:

Data availability using TradingView has its limitations. The indicator leverages only the real-time data available for the specific timeframe being used. This means it cannot access data from timeframes lower than the one displayed on the chart. For example, if you are on a daily chart, it cannot use H8 data. Additionally, on very low timeframes, the historical availability of data might be limited, making higher timeframe signals unreliable.

To address this, the indicator automatically hides the affected columns in these specific situations, preventing false signals.

Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational purposes only and does not guarantee profits.
None of the information provided shall be considered financial advice.
The indicator does not provide final buy or sell signals but highlights zones for potential setups.
Users are fully responsible for their trading decisions and outcomes.

昨天

版本注释

Updated colour options for tables

Added optional weekly and monthly separator lines

8小时前

版本注释

Bug fix