OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
已更新 Yield Curve Inversion Monitor
Identifies when the US Treasury Yield Curve inverts (2 and 10 year bond rates).
When they ‘invert’ long-term bonds have a lower interest rate than short-term bonds. In other words, the bond market is pricing in a significant drop in future interest rates (which might be caused by the US Fed fighting off a recession in the future).
In the last 50 years, every time the US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it then drops 37.6% on average, wiping out all those gains and more.
...Looks like 2020 is shaping up to be another prime example.
When they ‘invert’ long-term bonds have a lower interest rate than short-term bonds. In other words, the bond market is pricing in a significant drop in future interest rates (which might be caused by the US Fed fighting off a recession in the future).
In the last 50 years, every time the US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it then drops 37.6% on average, wiping out all those gains and more.
...Looks like 2020 is shaping up to be another prime example.
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开源脚本
秉承TradingView的精神，该脚本的作者将其开源，以便交易者可以查看和验证其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免费使用该脚本，但请记住，重新发布代码须遵守我们的网站规则。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。