Historical Volatility Strategy Strategy buy when HVol above BuyBand and close position when HVol below CloseBand.
Markets oscillate from periods of low volatility to high volatility
and back. The author`s research indicates that after periods of
extremely low volatility, volatility tends to increase and price
may move sharply. This increase in volatility tends to correlate
with the beginning of short- to intermediate-term moves in price.
They have found that we can identify which markets are about to make
such a move by measuring the historical volatility and the application
of pattern recognition.
The indicator is calculating as the standard deviation of day-to-day
logarithmic closing price changes expressed as an annualized percentage.
历史波动率(HV)
We Are Witnessing A Historical Event With A Clear Outcome!!!"Full Disclosure: I came across this information from www.SentimenTrader.com
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The S&P 500 has gone 43 trading days without a 1% daily move, up or down.
which is the equivalent of two months and one day in trading days.
During this stretch, the S&P has gained more than 4%,
and it has notched a 52-week high recently as well.
Since 1952, there were nine other precedents. All of
these went 42 trading days without a 1% move, all of
them saw the S&P gain at least 4% during their streaks,
and all of them saw the S&P close at a 52-week highs.
***There was consistent weakness a week later, with only three
gainers, and all below +0.5%.
***After that, stocks did better, often continuing an Extraordinary move higher.
Charts can sometimes give us a better nuance than
numbers from a table, and from the charts we can see a
general pattern -
***if stocks held up well in the following
weeks, then they tended to do extremely well in the
months ahead.
***If stocks started to stumble after this two-
month period of calm, however, then the following months
tended to show a lot more volatility.
We already know we're seeing an exceptional market
environment at the moment, going against a large number
of precedents that argued for weakness here, instead of
the rally we've seen. If we continue to head higher in
spite of everything, these precedents would suggest that
we're in the midst of something that could be TRULY EXTRAORDINARY.
Statistical Volatility - Extreme Value Method This indicator used to calculate the statistical volatility, sometime
called historical volatility, based on the Extreme Value Method.
Please use this link to get more information about Volatility.
