Bollinger Band and Moving Average v0.1 by JustUncleLThis is another Bollinger Band strategy+indicator in my series of Bollinger based setups. This one is seems to work best with 5min charts and 20 to 30min expiry. The strategy follows variation of a Bollinger band + Moving Averages
reversal strategy, it uses the 2 moving averages mainly to determine market direction.
在脚本中搜索"reversal"
Triple Bollinger BandsI found myself using multiple bollinger bands a lot so I decided to add them all to one script and add the ability to adjust them by 0.2. It has helped me by not taking up as much space in the upper left corner as well as improving my in's and outs of trend continuation trades. If you manage to find a double top at +2 or greater deviation, and with a bearish divergence on the RSI as shown in this picture, GO SHORT SON! This was a fast and easy 35 - 40 pips and if you used your fibonacci for an exit you had little doubt of the final result and could have even been prepared for an immediate reversal knowing you were then at an oversold -2.8 deviation. I could go on and on........
Outside Reversal SetUpwww.tradingview.com
This is an outside reversal set up from Frank Ochoa's book Secrets of a Pivot Boss. He recommends using this in confirmation with Pivots but I guess you can play with any other indicator of your choice.
PATTERN PSYCHOLOGY " The power behind this pattern lies in the psychology behind the traders involved in this setup. If you have ever participated in a breakout at support or resistance only to have the market reverse sharply against you, then you are familiar with the market dynamics of this setup .
Basically, market participants are testing the waters above resistance or below support to make sure there is no new business to be done at these levels. When no initiative buyers or sellers participate in range extension, responsive participants have all the information theyneed to reverse price back toward a new area of perceived value."
1-2-3 Reversal Strategy This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Reversal WaveThis is the type of quantitative system that can get you hated on investment forums, now that the Random Walk Theory is back in fashion. The strategy has simple price action rules, zero over-optimization, and is validated by a historical record of nearly a century on both Gold and the S&P 500 index.
Recommended Markets
SPX (Weekly, Monthly)
SPY (Monthly)
Tesla (Weekly)
XAUUSD (Weekly, Monthly)
NVDA (Weekly, Monthly)
Meta (Weekly, Monthly)
GOOG (Weekly, Monthly)
MSFT (Weekly, Monthly)
AAPL (Weekly, Monthly)
System Rules and Parameters
Total capital: $10,000
We will use 10% of the total capital per trade
Commissions will be 0.1% per trade
Condition 1: Previous Bearish Candle (isPrevBearish) (the closing price was lower than the opening price).
Condition 2: Midpoint of the Body The script calculates the exact midpoint of the body of that previous bearish candle.
• Formula: (Previous Open + Previous Close) / 2.
Condition 3: 50% Recovery (longCondition) The current candle must be bullish (green) and, most importantly, its closing price must be above the midpoint calculated in the previous step.
Once these parameters are met, the system executes a long entry and calculates the exit parameters:
Stop Loss (SL): Placed at the low of the candle that generated the entry signal.
Take Profit (TP): Calculated by projecting the risk distance upward.
• Calculation: Entry Price + (Risk * 1).
Risk:Reward Ratio of 1:1.
About the Profit Factor
In my experience, TradingView calculates profits and losses based on the percentage of movement, which can cause returns to not match expectations. This doesn’t significantly affect trending systems, but it can impact systems with a high win rate and a well-defined risk-reward ratio. It only takes one large entry candle that triggers the SL to translate into a major drop in performance.
For example, you might see a system with a 60% win rate and a 1:1 risk-reward ratio generating losses, even though commissions are under control relative to the number of trades.
My recommendation is to manually calculate the performance of systems with a well-defined risk-reward ratio, assuming you will trade using a fixed amount per trade and limit losses to a fixed percentage.
Remember that, even if candles are larger or smaller in size, we can maintain a fixed loss percentage by using leverage (in cases of low volatility) or reducing the capital at risk (when volatility is high).
Implementing leverage or capital reduction based on volatility is something I haven’t been able to incorporate into the code, but it would undoubtedly improve the system’s performance dramatically, as it would fix a consistent loss percentage per trade, preventing losses from fluctuating with volatility swings.
For example, we can maintain a fixed loss percentage when volatility is low by using the following formula:
Leverage = % of SL you’re willing to risk / % volatility from entry point to exit or SL
And if volatility is high and exceeds the fixed percentage we want to expose per trade (if SL is hit), we could reduce the position size.
For example, imagine we only want to risk 15% per SL on Tesla, where volatility is high and would cause a 23.57% loss. In this case, we subtract 23.57% from 15% (the loss percentage we’re willing to accept per trade), then subtract the result from our usual position size.
23.57% - 15% = 8.57%
Suppose I use $200 per trade.
To calculate 8.57% of $200, simply multiply 200 by 8.57/100. This simple calculation shows that 8.57% equals about $17.14 of the $200. Then subtract that value from $200:
$200 - $17.14 = $182.86
In summary, if we reduced the position size to $182.86 (from the usual $200, where we’re willing to lose 15%), no matter whether Tesla moves up or down 23.57%, we would still only gain or lose 15% of the $200, thus respecting our risk management.
Final Notes
The code is extremely simple, and every step of its development is detailed within it.
If you liked this strategy, which complements very well with others I’ve already published, stay tuned. Best regards.
TrendShift DetectorReversal detector identifying no-wick candles after trend shifts. Scans for first candle without opening-side wick following bullish/bearish sequences. Visual triangle signals (▼ SHORT / ▲ LONG). Customizable parameters: sequence length, body size, wick tolerance, lookback period.
Smart Bottom Catcher @ Le DReversal strategy using recent lowest lows and a fast RSI. Long entries trigger on extreme drops, exits occur when RSI crosses a set threshold. Includes optional SMA55 filter and allows up to 3 pyramids.
EMA100 Bounce Tracker (Support Only)Reversal Traders can use this to trade bounces from the EMA100 on any TF! :)
Reversal Triggers + 200 EMA + Prior D1 + Bias TableKeep it simple stupid.
D1 bias
H1 bias
H1 ORB (momentum)
Reversal off EMA-XsEMA-Xs works mostly on Forex due to the small prices and price fluctuations. It does work on Gold, oddly enough, and some others like UKX 100...but mostly on forex. It doesn't work as well on JPY pairs but occasionally does; the JPY pairs give less signals, but when a JPY pair gives a signal, its a high probability setup. Another script EMA-XL works better on the higher priced instruments like S&P, DJI, OIL, BTC etc.
This script will show 3 moving averages: 13, 34, 200 and works on the 5m, 1hr, 4hr, daily charts. Signals "B" or "S" will be on the chart above or below the candles respectively.
When to open:
The script gives buy and sell signals based on a counter-trend move away from the MA's. When the price rises a specific percent above/below the EMA, it'll give a signal. It's best to take a trade when it gives a cluster of consecutive signals near the same price. If using on the 5m, definitely wait for consecutive signals. Also, use this in conjunction with support and resistance areas. Using with fibs for confirmation really makes this a good tool with high probability: IE, when price hits a fib and the script gives a signal, its a high probability setup.
When to close:
1. After a fast move up/down you may use this to counter trade a scalp 10+ pips, but you need to be quick; applies mostly to the 5m chart.
2. If you have the tenacity wait until you see an opposite signal. With this method you may be holding a loosing trade for a while. But what I've noticed is if it trends against you, price usually with come near to the first time it signaled. You may want to stack trades on each cluster of signals. IE first trade is 1000 units, next is 2000 units, etc... then close when prices comes near the first time it signaled. By this time, if you held, you should have profit. This strategy will really test your mental resilience.
3. Wait until it comes back to one of the trendlines; remember this is a counter trend signal so price is moving away from the MA and it always returns to touch one of the MA's...LOL eventually
4. Applying to scalping on the 5m, keep the stops tight because if the instrument trends hard and fast, you'll be upside-down quickly.
If you put a lot of time into using this signal generator, you can really make good profit. But with all tools, you need to master it. There are nuances to the simple logic of this script that can be both fun and frustrating. With all endeavors, if you put the time into it, you will reap the rewards.
Good luck and let me know if you have any questions/comments.
Z-Score ProZ-Score Pro - Complete Description
This is an **advanced mean reversion indicator** that measures how many standard deviations the current price is from its average. It's ideal for identifying market extremes and trading opportunities.
What is the Z-Score?
The Z-Score is a statistical measure that answers: **"How far is the price from normal?"**
- **Z = 0**: Price is at its average
- **Z = +2**: Price is 2 standard deviations above (overbought)
- **Z = -2**: Price is 2 standard deviations below (oversold)
- **Z > +3** or **Z < -3**: Very rare extremes (occur ~0.3% of the time)
Main Features
### 1. **Flexible Calculation**
- **SMA or EMA**: Choose between simple or exponential moving average
- **Adjustable period**: Default 20 periods
- **Smoothing**: Option to smooth the Z-Score to reduce noise
### 2. **Multiple Levels**
- **±1.0**: Caution zone
- **±2.0**: Overbought/Oversold (68% statistical confidence)
- **±3.0**: Rare extremes (99.7% statistical confidence)
### 3. **Trading Signals**
The indicator generates automatic signals based on:
**Buy Signals (BUY)**:
- Z-Score is in oversold zone
- Momentum changes from negative to positive (price stops falling)
**Sell Signals (SELL)** :
- Z-Score is in overbought zone
- Momentum changes from positive to negative (price stops rising)
**Aggressiveness Levels**:
- **Conservative**: Only signals at extremes (±3.0)
- **Normal**: Signals at ±2.0 (recommended)
- **Aggressive**: More frequent signals at ±1.5
### 4. **Divergence Detection**
**Bullish Divergence** (aqua marker):
- Price makes a lower low
- Z-Score makes a higher low
- Indicates weakening of downtrend
**Bearish Divergence** (fuchsia marker):
- Price makes a higher high
- Z-Score makes a lower high
- Indicates weakening of uptrend
---
## Visualization
### Dynamic Colors
- **Bright red**: Z-Score > 2 and rising (strong overbought)
- **Orange**: Z-Score > 1 and rising
- **Purple**: Neutral zone rising
- **Transparent green**: Z-Score falling (any level)
### Background Zones
- **Intense red**: Extreme overbought (Z > 3)
- **Soft orange**: Overbought (Z > 2)
- **Intense green**: Extreme oversold (Z < -3)
- **Soft lime**: Oversold (Z < -2)
### Info Table (top right corner)
Shows in real-time:
- **Current Z-Score**: Numeric value with color
- **Status**: Extreme OB/OS, Overbought, Oversold, or Neutral
- **Momentum**: Rising ↗ or Falling ↘
- **Mean**: Current average value
- **Std Dev**: Current standard deviation
---
## Alert System
The indicator includes **8 types of alerts**:
1. **Buy Signal**: When entry conditions are met
2. **Sell Signal**: When exit conditions are met
3. **Overbought**: When crossing above +2.0
4. **Oversold**: When crossing below -2.0
5. **Extreme Overbought**: When reaching +3.0
6. **Extreme Oversold**: When reaching -3.0
7. **Bullish Divergence**: Potential reversal up
8. **Bearish Divergence**: Potential reversal down
---
## How to Use It
### **Mean Reversion Strategy**
1. Wait for Z-Score to reach ±2 or beyond
2. Wait for BUY/SELL signal (momentum reversal)
3. Enter trade in opposite direction of extreme
4. Exit when Z-Score returns to zero
### **Divergence Strategy**
1. Identify divergence markers (DIV)
2. Confirm with momentum change
3. Enter in direction of divergence
4. Use Z-Score levels as targets
### **Multi-Timeframe Analysis**
- **Short-term** (5-15 min): Scalping with aggressive mode
- **Medium-term** (1H-4H): Swing trading with normal mode
- **Long-term** (Daily): Position trading with conservative mode
---
## Best Practices
**Do**:
- Use in ranging/sideways markets
- Combine with support/resistance levels
- Wait for momentum confirmation
- Use conservative mode in trending markets
**Don't**:
- Trade against strong trends
- Ignore divergences
- Use alone without confirmation
- Over-trade in low volatility
---
## Statistical Background
The Z-Score follows a **normal distribution**:
- **68%** of values fall within ±1 standard deviation
- **95%** of values fall within ±2 standard deviations
- **99.7%** of values fall within ±3 standard deviations
When price reaches Z = ±2, there's a **95% probability** it will revert toward the mean, making it a powerful mean reversion tool.
---
##Customization Options
All aspects are customizable:
- Calculation method and periods
- Visual colors and transparency
- Signal sensitivity
- Alert preferences
- Level thresholds
- Background zones on/off
White Core Trend [wjdtks255]
White Core Trend is a trend-following indicator designed to strip away market noise and visualize the "Core Trend" of price action. It focuses on the essential relationship between price and a dynamic baseline to provide clear trading decisions.
White Core Line: Built on a responsive HMA (Hull Moving Average) logic, this line acts as the definitive trend filter. It reacts swiftly to price changes while maintaining a smooth trajectory to reduce false signals.
Intuitive Visual Signals: The indicator identifies trend exhaustion and reversal points by plotting triangle labels (▲/▼). These signals help traders maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making.
Minimalist Design: Optimized for clarity, the indicator eliminates unnecessary clutter like background colors or complex data overlays, keeping the focus strictly on the trend and entry levels.
As a core technical tool, this indicator is used to identify the market's direction and establish precise entry/exit benchmarks.
1. Entry Strategy
Long Entry: Enter when the price crosses above the White Core Line and a green triangle appears.
Short Entry: Enter when the price crosses below the White Core Line and a red triangle appears.
Note: Ensure the candle body closes decisively across the line to confirm the signal.
2. Position Management
Trend Following: Stay in the trade as long as the price remains on the correct side of the White Core Line.
Reference Point: Use the horizontal white "Entry" line as a visual anchor for your current position.
3. Exit & Stop Loss
Stop Loss: Exit immediately if the price crosses back over the White Core Line against your position.
Take Profit: Secure profits when the price reaches your target or when the trend starts to flatten out (sideways movement) near the core line.
Volume Pressure OscillatorThe Volume Pressure Oscillator (VPO) measures whether recent volume is mostly supporting up days (buying pressure) or down days (selling pressure). Readings above +5 indicate strong positive volume pressure, while readings below −5 indicate strong negative pressure.
VPO signals are most useful as confirmation around price structures: breakouts with VPO > +5, pullbacks in an existing uptrend where VPO remains positive, or bottom formations where VPO turns from negative to positive. In these cases, volume is aligned with the price move, increasing the probability of trend continuation.
Signals are less reliable in choppy, range-bound markets, on illiquid instruments, or during news-driven spikes, where volume and price can be erratic. A false signal occurs when VPO crosses above/below the threshold but price fails to follow through and quickly reverses. For best results, always use VPO together with trend filters (e.g., moving averages), support/resistance, and market context, rather than as a standalone buy/sell tool.
How VPO works (brief)
VPO > 0: Recent volume is dominantly on up days (buying pressure).
VPO < 0: Recent volume is dominantly on down days (selling pressure).
+5 / −5: Default critical thresholds where signals and “D” markers appear.
The MA line of VPO helps filter noise and highlight more durable pressure.
Situations where signals are interesting
Use VPO as confirmation or early warning around price structures you as already identified (breakouts, bases, trends).
1. Breakout with strong positive volume pressure
Price breaks a resistance or a consolidation zone.
VPO crosses above +5 and stays in the bullish zone for several bars.
The MA of VPO is rising or above zero.
Interpretation:
Buyers dominate the tape, the breakout has real volume behind it. This is often a good context to consider entering or pyramiding, especially if:
Trend is already up (above 50/200 MA).
Broader market is also bullish.
There is no major overhead resistance immediately above.
2. Pullback in an uptrend with VPO staying positive
Price pulls back modestly but remains in an uptrend (higher highs / higher lows, MA up).
VPO dips but stays above zero or quickly recovers above +5.
No heavy negative VPO spikes below −5.
Interpretation:
Selling is more like a pause than real distribution. This context can justify buying the dip or adding, as long as your risk management (stop, position size) is clear.
3. Reversal from a bottom with positive VPO shift
After a downtrend, price forms a base, double bottom, or tight range.
VPO moves from negative territory to above +5 for the first time in a while.
The MA of VPO turns up and crosses above zero.
Interpretation:
Volume starts supporting the upside. It can be an early sign of accumulation. This becomes interesting if:
Price confirms with a breakout above the base.
The market context is improving (index strength, sector rotation).
Situations where signals are not very useful
VPO alone should not drive decisions in noisy or structurally weak contexts.
1. Range-bound / choppy markets
Price oscillates in a flat range without clear trend.
VPO frequently crosses +5 and −5 without sustained direction.
In that case, many “D” signals will just correspond to minor swings inside a range. They can be taken as short-term trading hints, but not as strong investable signals.
2. Very low volume assets or illiquid markets
Spreads are wide, volume is sporadic.
A few orders can push both price and VPO sharply.
In such cases, VPO can overreact and produce apparent “signals” that are just random prints in an illiquid order book.
3. Strong news-driven spikes
Earnings, takeover rumors, macro announcements.
Volume explodes, VPO spikes, but price behavior is abnormal and highly volatile.
The indicator will show strong volume pressure, but the risk profile is different (gap risk, slippage, abnormal volatility). Signals here are more “informational” than investable, unless you have a specific event-driven strategy.
What is a false signal with VPO?
A false signal is when VPO suggests a strong directional edge, but price action fails to follow through or quickly reverses.
Typical patterns of false signals:
VPO crosses above +5 (bullish “D”) near resistance, but:
- Price fails to break out or immediately rejects the level.
- Next bars show a quick drop back below zero or even below −5.
VPO crosses below −5 (bearish “D”) after an extended selloff, but:
- Price quickly rebounds and forms a V-shaped recovery.
- No continuation downside despite “strong” negative volume.
How to reduce false signals:
Always combine VPO with:
- Trend filters (MA 50/200, higher highs/lows).
- Key levels (supports, resistances, bases, breakouts).
- Broader market/sector context.
Give more weight to signals:
- That align with the prevailing trend.
- Where VPO stays above/below the threshold for several bars.
- Where the VPO MA confirms the direction.
FX 30m Full-Stack EMA ORDER FLIP (Chart + Scanner)scans 16 pairs on 30 min. alerts on 30 min tema reversal.
Predator UAV🛩️ Predator UAV — Indicator Overview
Predator UAV is a multi-module market structure & execution assistant.
Think of it as 4 sensors on a drone, each scanning a different layer of price:
Module What it Sees Why it Matters
Module 1 Swing Structure (ZigZag) Trend direction & key levels
Module 2 FVGs, Imbalances, Targets, D/W/M levels Liquidity & objectives
Module 3 Swing Labels + Candle Patterns Entry timing & confirmation
Module 4 VWAP + Slope Dashboard Intraday bias & strength
You can turn any module ON/OFF independently.
🧩 MODULE 1 — ZigZag Swing High / Low (Market Structure)
What it does
Detects Swing Highs (HH / LH) and Swing Lows (HL / LL)
Draws:
Horizontal structure levels
ZigZag connections
Broken vs respected levels
Shows current swing direction in a mini table
How to use it
Bullish structure → higher lows forming
Bearish structure → lower highs forming
Best used for:
Bias filtering
Stop placement
Avoiding counter-trend trades
💡 Pro tip:
If price breaks a swing level and holds → structure shift confirmed.
🧱 MODULE 2 — FVGs, Imbalances, Targets & HTF Levels (Liquidity Engine)
This is the core execution intelligence.
A️⃣ Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
Bullish FVG → price inefficiency below price
Bearish FVG → inefficiency above price
Options:
Extend none / limited / default
Limit number on chart
Show midpoint equilibrium
Usage
Price returning into FVG = high-probability reaction zone
Best entries = FVG + structure + VWAP bias
B️⃣ Imbalances
Based on strong displacement candles
Shows where price moved too fast
Usage
Often aligns with:
Breakouts
Stop runs
Momentum continuation
C️⃣ Swing Targets
Automatically marks next logical target
Swing Highs for longs
Swing Lows for shorts
Usage
Use as:
Take-profit zones
Partial exits
Trail stop reference
D️⃣ Previous Day / Week / Month Highs & Lows
Institutional liquidity magnets
Extremely effective on indices & forex
Usage
Expect:
Rejections
Stop hunts
Reversals near these levels
🔍 MODULE 3 — Swing Labels + Candle Patterns (Entry Timing)
This module answers: WHEN to enter?
Swing Labels
HH / HL / LH / LL printed directly on chart
Candle Patterns Detected
Hammer
Inverted Hammer
Bullish Engulfing
Bearish Engulfing
Hanging Man
Shooting Star
Each label includes:
Pattern name
Tooltip explanation (educational)
Usage
Never trade patterns alone
Best when combined with:
FVG
VWAP
Structure level
📐 MODULE 4 — VWAP with Slope Dashboard (Bias & Strength)
This is your intraday compass.
What it shows
Session VWAP
VWAP slope (numeric + angle)
Direction:
↗ Bullish
↘ Bearish
→ Neutral
Strength:
Weak
Moderate
Strong
How to read it
Above VWAP + positive slope → long bias
Below VWAP + negative slope → short bias
Flat slope → scalp only or wait
💡 Pro tip:
Strong VWAP slope + FVG pullback = A-grade setup.
🎯 COMPLETE TRADING TUTORIAL (Step-by-Step)
Step 1 — Determine Bias
Use Module 1 + Module 4
Structure bullish?
VWAP slope bullish?
✅ If aligned → look for longs
❌ If mixed → reduce size or wait
Step 2 — Identify POI (Point of Interest)
Use Module 2
Bullish:
Bullish FVG
Prior swing low
VWAP pullback
Bearish:
Bearish FVG
Prior swing high
VWAP rejection
Step 3 — Wait for Entry Confirmation
Use Module 3
Look for:
Engulfing
Hammer / Shooting star
Swing HL / LH confirmation
Step 4 — Define Targets
Use Next Target
Or Previous Day / Week Highs
Partial TP near first liquidity pool
Step 5 — Risk Management
SL beyond:
FVG boundary
Swing high/low
Trail using:
VWAP
Structure breaks
🧠 Best Timeframes
Purpose TF
Bias 15m / 30m
Setup 5m
Entry 1m–3m
Scalping VWAP + FVG only
⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Trading every FVG
❌ Ignoring VWAP slope
❌ Counter-trend without confirmation
❌ Overloading chart (turn unused modules off)
🚀 Final Thought
Predator UAV is not a signal generator.
It’s a decision-support system — when multiple modules align, probability shifts in your favor.
CopyPipe Signal Connector🚀 Turn TradingView Alerts into Automatic MetaTrader Trades
Stop copy-pasting signals. This indicator generates **webhook-ready alerts** that execute directly on your MT4 or MT5 — hands-free.
---
### 🎯 How It Works
1. **Add this indicator** to any chart
2. **Set your webhook URL** (from CopyPipe.io) in the alert
3. **Conditions trigger → Trade executes** on MetaTrader automatically
Your TradingView does the analysis. Your MetaTrader does the execution. You do... whatever you want.
---
### 📊 Built-In Strategies
Choose from 4 ready-to-use strategies:
- **RSI Reversal** — Classic oversold/overbought entries
- **EMA Cross** — Trend-following momentum plays
- **Breakout** — Catch support/resistance breaks
- **Custom** — RSI + EMA confluence for filtered entries
Or use this as a **template** and add your own logic.
---
### ⚙️ Features
✅ Webhook-formatted alerts (JSON ready)
✅ Customizable lot size
✅ Built-in SL/TP calculation
✅ Works on any symbol
✅ Clean visual signals on chart
✅ Info panel with live RSI + signal status
---
### 🔗 Setup with CopyPipe (Free Beta)
1. Sign up at **copypipe.io/beta** (free during beta)
2. Download the EA for MT4 or MT5
3. Copy your webhook URL from the dashboard
4. Create an alert on this indicator → paste webhook URL
5. Done. Alerts now auto-trade.
---
### 📝 Alert Message Format
The alerts output clean JSON that CopyPipe understands:
```json
{
"action": "BUY",
"symbol": "BTCUSD",
"lot_size": 0.1,
"sl": 74500,
"tp": 78000
}
```
Works with the free CopyPipe tier. No API coding required.
---
### ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This indicator is a **tool**, not financial advice. Backtest thoroughly. Start with small positions. You are responsible for your own trades.
---
### 💬 Feedback Welcome
Drop a comment if you have questions or feature requests. Building this for the community.
**Happy trading!** 🎯
---
Poseidon [hide System]English Description
Poseidon Ultimate Fix is a sophisticated hybrid trading strategy designed to adapt seamlessly to changing market conditions. Its core strength lies in its ability to automatically distinguish between trending and ranging markets using the Hybrid Logic Engine, which relies on the Average Directional Index (ADX). When the market shows strong directional momentum (ADX > 25), the system activates Trend Mode. In this phase, it utilizes a Supertrend-based logic to follow the market flow, entering trades on breakouts and holding positions until the trend reverses, thereby maximizing profit potential during volatile periods.
Conversely, when volatility is low and the market lacks clear direction (ADX ≤ 25), the system switches to Range Mode. Here, it employs Bollinger Bands to execute mean reversion strategies, buying at the lower band and selling at the upper band to capture smaller, consistent gains within the consolidation. A critical safety feature of this system is its Emergency Escape protocol. If a sudden surge in volatility occurs while a range position is open—threatening a breakout against the trade—the system immediately liquidates the position and switches to a trend-following entry. This mechanism effectively neutralizes the risk of catastrophic losses often associated with reversal strategies during market explosions. Furthermore, the Precise Accounting feature ensures that the dashboard metrics, including Profit Factor and Win Rate, are calculated based on real-time equity changes, providing an accurate reflection of the system's performance without mathematical discrepancies.
日本語による説明
Poseidon Ultimate Fix は、刻々と変化する相場環境に完全適応するために設計された、高度なハイブリッド型トレードシステムです。このシステムの最大の特徴は、ADX（平均方向性指数）を用いたハイブリッド・ロジック・エンジンにあります。これにより、相場が「トレンド状態」にあるか「レンジ状態」にあるかを自動的かつ正確に判別します。強い方向感が出ている局面（ADXが25以上）では、システムは即座にトレンドモードを選択します。ここではスーパートレンド指標に基づいた順張りロジックが作動し、トレンドの発生に合わせてエントリーを行い、相場が反転するその瞬間までポジションを保有し続けることで、利益の最大化を狙います。
一方で、相場の方向感が失われ、ボラティリティが低下した局面（ADXが25以下）では、システムはレンジモードへと切り替わります。このモードではボリンジャーバンドを活用した逆張り戦略を展開し、バンドの下限で買い、上限で売ることで、ボックス相場の中から着実に利益を積み上げます。さらに、このシステムには**緊急脱出機能（エマージェンシー・エスケープ）**という重要な安全装置が搭載されています。もしレンジ逆張りポジションを保有中に突発的な暴騰や暴落が発生した場合、システムは即座に損切りを行い、間髪入れずにトレンド方向への順張りエントリーに切り替えます。これにより、レンジ手法特有の「コツコツ勝ってドカンと負ける」リスクを排除します。加えて、完全な会計処理機能により、ダッシュボード上の勝率やプロフィットファクターは実際の口座残高の増減と1円の狂いもなく一致し、極めて信頼性の高いパフォーマンス分析を提供します。
ICT KillZones + ICT NY Midnight Open "YECHALALE"This powerful indicator combines:
- Asia, London, NY AM, and NY PM sessions with configurable colors and kill zones.
- Automatic alerts when price touches session kill zone highs or lows.
- NY Midnight Open line, drawn both vertically and horizontally, DST-adjusted to always align with 00:00 New York time.
- Ideal for traders following ICT/Smart Money Concepts, spotting liquidity sweeps, session overlaps, and potential reversal zones.
- Fully customizable to match your trading style.
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
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[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
Round Number Analyzer v3Round Number Analyzer v3 is an indicator designed to analyze how price interacts with round number levels (levels spaced at fixed intervals in points or pips).
The indicator does not generate entry/exit signals, but provides detailed statistics to better understand market dynamics around these key levels.
✨ Key Features
Cross Counting: detects every time the price crosses a round number level (up = Long, down = Short).
Continuations & Reversals: classifies each cross as:
Continuation: the move continues in the same direction as the previous sequence.
Reversal: the move changes direction compared to the previous sequence.
Sequence Classification (L1…L5+): each level is labelled based on its position within the consecutive cross sequence:
L1 = first level of the sequence,
L2 = second consecutive,
…
L5+ = fifth or higher.
Comprehensive Stats Table (top right corner):
Total crosses (Long, Short, Totals).
Total continuations + breakdown by L1…L5+.
Total reversals + breakdown by L1…L5+.
Percentages calculated against the proper denominator, displayed directly inside the cells next to the absolute values.
Date range of analysis (user-defined).
Customizable Step: Works in both points and pips, making the indicator suitable for indices and forex.
⚙️ Main Inputs
Start date / End date → sets the analysis period.
Step mode → Points or Pips.
Step value → distance between round levels.
Pip size → pip size (default = 0.0001, typical for forex).
📈 How to Interpret
A high continuation percentage after L1–L2 suggests the market tends to extend multiple times beyond the first breakout levels.
Higher reversal percentages at advanced levels (L4–L5+) may signal trend exhaustion.
The analysis helps estimate the probability of continuation or reversal depending on how many consecutive levels have already been crossed.
🔎 Practical Applications
Support for breakout or mean-reversion strategies.
Comparative analysis across different markets (e.g. indices vs forex) or different time periods.
📝 Notes
The indicator is timeframe-robust, as it accounts for multiple steps within the same candle, ensuring results do not depend on the selected timeframe (except for TradingView’s historical data limits).
It does not provide automatic trading signals, but serves as a quantitative analysis tool to refine your strategies.
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Round Number Analyzer v3 è un indicatore pensato per analizzare come il prezzo interagisce con i livelli di round number (livelli a distanza fissa in punti o pips).
L’indicatore non genera segnali di ingresso/uscita, ma fornisce statistiche dettagliate utili per comprendere la dinamica del mercato attorno a questi livelli.
✨ Funzionalità principali
Conteggio dei Cross: rileva ogni volta che il prezzo attraversa un livello round (verso l’alto = Long, verso il basso = Short).
Continuations & Reversals: classifica ogni attraversamento come:
Continuation: il movimento prosegue nella stessa direzione della sequenza precedente.
Reversal: il movimento inverte la direzione rispetto alla sequenza precedente.
Classificazione per sequenza (L1…L5+): ogni livello è etichettato in base alla sua posizione nella sequenza di cross consecutivi:
L1 = primo livello della sequenza,
L2 = secondo consecutivo,
…
L5+ = quinto o superiore.
Statistiche complete in tabella (in alto a destra):
Cross totali (Long, Short, Totals).
Continuations totali + breakdown per L1…L5+.
Reversals totali + breakdown per L1…L5+.
Percentuali calcolate sul denominatore corretto, mostrate direttamente dentro le celle accanto ai valori assoluti.
Date range di analisi (impostabile dall’utente).
Step personalizzabile: puoi lavorare sia in punti che in pips, così l’indicatore è adatto sia per indici che per forex.
⚙️ Input principali
Start date / End date → imposta l’intervallo temporale di analisi.
Step mode → punti o pips.
Step value → ampiezza tra i livelli round.
Pip size → dimensione del pip (default = 0.0001, tipico per il forex).
📈 Come interpretarlo
Una percentuale di continuation molto alta dopo L1–L2 indica che il mercato tende a proseguire più volte oltre i primi livelli di breakout.
Percentuali di reversal più elevate nei livelli avanzati (L4–L5+) possono suggerire esaurimento della spinta.
L’analisi permette di stimare la probabilità che un movimento in corso continui o si inverta in base a quanti livelli sono già stati attraversati consecutivamente.
🔎 Applicazioni pratiche
Supporto per strategie di breakout o mean reversion.
Analisi comparativa tra mercati (es. indici vs forex) o tra periodi temporali diversi.
📝 Note
L’indicatore è timeframe-robust: il conteggio tiene conto di multipli step dentro la stessa candela, così i risultati non dipendono dal timeframe scelto (salvo i limiti di caricamento storico di TradingView).
Non fornisce segnali operativi automatici, ma è un tool di analisi quantitativa per affinare le proprie strategie.
Mean Reversion Indictor, Based on Standard Deviations Description:
The Reversal Candle Mean Reversion Indicator is designed for traders seeking to identify potential reversal points in the market based on key price action and volatility. This indicator combines price action analysis (sweeping prior highs or lows) with mean reversion theory, highlighting opportunities where the price tests or touches a moving average's standard deviation bands.
By focusing on these moments of price extremes, the indicator helps traders spot bullish and bearish reversal signals when the price retraces from volatile movements. These conditions often signal a return to the mean—an ideal setup for reversal traders who thrive on fading exaggerated price moves.
How It Works:
1. Price Action Reversal Signal:
* Bullish Reversal: The indicator flags a bullish signal when the current candle's low sweeps the prior candle's low, and the candle closes higher than the prior candle's close.
* Bearish Reversal: The indicator flags a bearish signal when the current candle's high sweeps the prior candle's high, and the candle closes lower than the prior candle's close.
2. Mean Reversion Confirmation:
* Mean Reversion Signal is triggered when the price touches or tests the upper or lower bands, calculated using a user-selected moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, or Hull MA) and standard deviation.
* The indicator combines price action and volatility, providing stronger reversal signals when the price reaches an extreme distance from the moving average.
3. Customization Options:
* Moving Average Type: Choose from SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, or Hull MA.
* Moving Average Length: Adjust the length of the moving average (default: 20).
* Standard Deviation Multiplier: Set the number of standard deviations for the volatility bands (default: 2.0).
* Custom Candle Colors: Choose custom colors for bullish and bearish reversal candles to easily spot signals.
How to Use for Trading Reversals:
1. Identify Extremes:
* Watch for candles where the price tests or touches the standard deviation bands. These are key moments when the price has moved significantly from the moving average, indicating a potential overbought or oversold condition.
2. Look for Reversals:
* When the price tests a band and simultaneously forms a bullish reversal pattern (sweeping the prior low and closing higher), it signals a potential mean reversion to the upside.
* When the price tests a band and forms a bearish reversal pattern (sweeping the prior high and closing lower), it signals a potential mean reversion to the downside.
3. Entry Points:
* Long Trades: Enter a long trade after a bullish signal appears (green candle) near the lower band, indicating a likely price reversal back towards the mean.
* Short Trades: Enter a short trade after a bearish signal appears (red candle) near the upper band, indicating a likely price pullback.
4. Exit Strategy:
* Set a profit target at the moving average (the mean) or a specific price level based on your strategy.
* Consider using a trailing stop to capture additional profit in case of a stronger reversal beyond the mean.
5. Risk Management:
* Place stops just below the low of the bullish reversal candle or just above the high of the bearish reversal candle to manage risk efficiently.
