Pivot Reversal Strategy - TimeFramedThis is Pivot Reversal Strategy including the time frames for backtesting.
在脚本中搜索"reversal"
Livermore's One Day ReversalThis is an indicator based on Jessie Livermore's "One Day Reversal" from the book "How to Trade in Stocks" by Richard Smitten.
3-Bar-Reversal-Pattern Strategy Backtest This startegy based on 3-day pattern reversal described in "Are Three-Bar
Patterns Reliable For Stocks" article by Thomas Bulkowski, presented in
January, 2000 issue of Stocks&Commodities magazine.
That pattern conforms to the following rules:
- It uses daily prices, not intraday or weekly prices;
- The middle day of the three-day pattern has the lowest low of the three days, with no ties allowed;
- The last day must have a close above the prior day's high, with no ties allowed;
- Each day must have a nonzero trading range.
Please, use it only for learning or paper trading. Do not for real trading.
Bollinger Band and Moving Average v0.1 by JustUncleLThis is another Bollinger Band strategy+indicator in my series of Bollinger based setups. This one is seems to work best with 5min charts and 20 to 30min expiry. The strategy follows variation of a Bollinger band + Moving Averages
reversal strategy, it uses the 2 moving averages mainly to determine market direction.
Triple Bollinger BandsI found myself using multiple bollinger bands a lot so I decided to add them all to one script and add the ability to adjust them by 0.2. It has helped me by not taking up as much space in the upper left corner as well as improving my in's and outs of trend continuation trades. If you manage to find a double top at +2 or greater deviation, and with a bearish divergence on the RSI as shown in this picture, GO SHORT SON! This was a fast and easy 35 - 40 pips and if you used your fibonacci for an exit you had little doubt of the final result and could have even been prepared for an immediate reversal knowing you were then at an oversold -2.8 deviation. I could go on and on........
Outside Reversal SetUpwww.tradingview.com
This is an outside reversal set up from Frank Ochoa's book Secrets of a Pivot Boss. He recommends using this in confirmation with Pivots but I guess you can play with any other indicator of your choice.
PATTERN PSYCHOLOGY " The power behind this pattern lies in the psychology behind the traders involved in this setup. If you have ever participated in a breakout at support or resistance only to have the market reverse sharply against you, then you are familiar with the market dynamics of this setup .
Basically, market participants are testing the waters above resistance or below support to make sure there is no new business to be done at these levels. When no initiative buyers or sellers participate in range extension, responsive participants have all the information theyneed to reverse price back toward a new area of perceived value."
Reversal WaveThis is the type of quantitative system that can get you hated on investment forums, now that the Random Walk Theory is back in fashion. The strategy has simple price action rules, zero over-optimization, and is validated by a historical record of nearly a century on both Gold and the S&P 500 index.
Recommended Markets
SPX (Weekly, Monthly)
SPY (Monthly)
Tesla (Weekly)
XAUUSD (Weekly, Monthly)
NVDA (Weekly, Monthly)
Meta (Weekly, Monthly)
GOOG (Weekly, Monthly)
MSFT (Weekly, Monthly)
AAPL (Weekly, Monthly)
System Rules and Parameters
Total capital: $10,000
We will use 10% of the total capital per trade
Commissions will be 0.1% per trade
Condition 1: Previous Bearish Candle (isPrevBearish) (the closing price was lower than the opening price).
Condition 2: Midpoint of the Body The script calculates the exact midpoint of the body of that previous bearish candle.
• Formula: (Previous Open + Previous Close) / 2.
Condition 3: 50% Recovery (longCondition) The current candle must be bullish (green) and, most importantly, its closing price must be above the midpoint calculated in the previous step.
Once these parameters are met, the system executes a long entry and calculates the exit parameters:
Stop Loss (SL): Placed at the low of the candle that generated the entry signal.
Take Profit (TP): Calculated by projecting the risk distance upward.
• Calculation: Entry Price + (Risk * 1).
Risk:Reward Ratio of 1:1.
About the Profit Factor
In my experience, TradingView calculates profits and losses based on the percentage of movement, which can cause returns to not match expectations. This doesn’t significantly affect trending systems, but it can impact systems with a high win rate and a well-defined risk-reward ratio. It only takes one large entry candle that triggers the SL to translate into a major drop in performance.
For example, you might see a system with a 60% win rate and a 1:1 risk-reward ratio generating losses, even though commissions are under control relative to the number of trades.
My recommendation is to manually calculate the performance of systems with a well-defined risk-reward ratio, assuming you will trade using a fixed amount per trade and limit losses to a fixed percentage.
Remember that, even if candles are larger or smaller in size, we can maintain a fixed loss percentage by using leverage (in cases of low volatility) or reducing the capital at risk (when volatility is high).
Implementing leverage or capital reduction based on volatility is something I haven’t been able to incorporate into the code, but it would undoubtedly improve the system’s performance dramatically, as it would fix a consistent loss percentage per trade, preventing losses from fluctuating with volatility swings.
For example, we can maintain a fixed loss percentage when volatility is low by using the following formula:
Leverage = % of SL you’re willing to risk / % volatility from entry point to exit or SL
And if volatility is high and exceeds the fixed percentage we want to expose per trade (if SL is hit), we could reduce the position size.
For example, imagine we only want to risk 15% per SL on Tesla, where volatility is high and would cause a 23.57% loss. In this case, we subtract 23.57% from 15% (the loss percentage we’re willing to accept per trade), then subtract the result from our usual position size.
23.57% - 15% = 8.57%
Suppose I use $200 per trade.
To calculate 8.57% of $200, simply multiply 200 by 8.57/100. This simple calculation shows that 8.57% equals about $17.14 of the $200. Then subtract that value from $200:
$200 - $17.14 = $182.86
In summary, if we reduced the position size to $182.86 (from the usual $200, where we’re willing to lose 15%), no matter whether Tesla moves up or down 23.57%, we would still only gain or lose 15% of the $200, thus respecting our risk management.
Final Notes
The code is extremely simple, and every step of its development is detailed within it.
If you liked this strategy, which complements very well with others I’ve already published, stay tuned. Best regards.
TrendShift DetectorReversal detector identifying no-wick candles after trend shifts. Scans for first candle without opening-side wick following bullish/bearish sequences. Visual triangle signals (▼ SHORT / ▲ LONG). Customizable parameters: sequence length, body size, wick tolerance, lookback period.
Smart Bottom Catcher @ Le DReversal strategy using recent lowest lows and a fast RSI. Long entries trigger on extreme drops, exits occur when RSI crosses a set threshold. Includes optional SMA55 filter and allows up to 3 pyramids.
EMA100 Bounce Tracker (Support Only)Reversal Traders can use this to trade bounces from the EMA100 on any TF! :)
Reversal Triggers + 200 EMA + Prior D1 + Bias TableKeep it simple stupid.
D1 bias
H1 bias
H1 ORB (momentum)
Reversal off EMA-XsEMA-Xs works mostly on Forex due to the small prices and price fluctuations. It does work on Gold, oddly enough, and some others like UKX 100...but mostly on forex. It doesn't work as well on JPY pairs but occasionally does; the JPY pairs give less signals, but when a JPY pair gives a signal, its a high probability setup. Another script EMA-XL works better on the higher priced instruments like S&P, DJI, OIL, BTC etc.
This script will show 3 moving averages: 13, 34, 200 and works on the 5m, 1hr, 4hr, daily charts. Signals "B" or "S" will be on the chart above or below the candles respectively.
When to open:
The script gives buy and sell signals based on a counter-trend move away from the MA's. When the price rises a specific percent above/below the EMA, it'll give a signal. It's best to take a trade when it gives a cluster of consecutive signals near the same price. If using on the 5m, definitely wait for consecutive signals. Also, use this in conjunction with support and resistance areas. Using with fibs for confirmation really makes this a good tool with high probability: IE, when price hits a fib and the script gives a signal, its a high probability setup.
When to close:
1. After a fast move up/down you may use this to counter trade a scalp 10+ pips, but you need to be quick; applies mostly to the 5m chart.
2. If you have the tenacity wait until you see an opposite signal. With this method you may be holding a loosing trade for a while. But what I've noticed is if it trends against you, price usually with come near to the first time it signaled. You may want to stack trades on each cluster of signals. IE first trade is 1000 units, next is 2000 units, etc... then close when prices comes near the first time it signaled. By this time, if you held, you should have profit. This strategy will really test your mental resilience.
3. Wait until it comes back to one of the trendlines; remember this is a counter trend signal so price is moving away from the MA and it always returns to touch one of the MA's...LOL eventually
4. Applying to scalping on the 5m, keep the stops tight because if the instrument trends hard and fast, you'll be upside-down quickly.
If you put a lot of time into using this signal generator, you can really make good profit. But with all tools, you need to master it. There are nuances to the simple logic of this script that can be both fun and frustrating. With all endeavors, if you put the time into it, you will reap the rewards.
Good luck and let me know if you have any questions/comments.
Internal vs External Liquidity Zones [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated dual-timeframe market structure visualization system that identifies and maps internal (short-term) and external (long-term) liquidity levels with comprehensive Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) detection across both timeframes. Utilizing pivot-based zone creation with ATR-scaled heights and sweep classification, this indicator delivers institutional-grade liquidity mapping distinguishing between major swing liquidity (external) and minor retracement liquidity (internal) for multi-dimensional market structure analysis. The system's hierarchical structure framework combined with objective arrow projection and state-based zone coloring provides complete smart money concept implementation for advanced order flow trading.
🔶 Understanding Internal vs External Structure
External Structure represents major swing points using longer pivot lengths (default 10 bars), identifying significant highs and lows that define the broader market range and trend direction. These are the key levels where large institutional positions likely exist, stop losses cluster, and major trend reversals may occur. External structure breaks (eBOS/eCHoCH) signal significant shifts in market sentiment and often precede sustained directional moves.
Internal Structure captures minor swing points within the external range using shorter pivot lengths (default 3 bars), revealing short-term liquidity pools formed during retracements, consolidations, and minor corrections. These represent areas where smaller participants' stops accumulate and where price often reacts before continuing toward external objectives. Internal structure breaks (iBOS/iCHoCH) provide early warning signals and tactical entry opportunities within the broader external trend context.
The relationship between internal and external structure creates a hierarchical framework: external zones define the "what" (overall bias and major objectives), while internal zones reveal the "how" (tactical path and entry models). When internal structure breaks bullish while within an external bearish range, it signals potential reversal setup. When internal breaks align with external direction, it confirms trend strength.
🔶 Advanced Dual-Pivot Detection Framework
Implements separate pivot calculation systems for external and internal structure with configurable lookback periods optimizing for different swing magnitudes. The system identifies external pivots using extended length capturing major swing extremes, detects internal pivots using compressed length for minor retracement highs/lows, and optionally requires internal pivots occur within current external range boundaries ensuring hierarchical structure coherence.
// Dual Structure Detection
External_Pivot_High = ta.pivothigh(high, External_Length, External_Length)
External_Pivot_Low = ta.pivotlow(low, External_Length, External_Length)
Internal_Pivot_High = ta.pivothigh(high, Internal_Length, Internal_Length)
Internal_Pivot_Low = ta.pivotlow(low, Internal_Length, Internal_Length)
// Optional Range Requirement
Valid_Internal = requireInside ? (pivot within ) : true
🔶 BOS and CHoCH Detection System
Break of Structure (BOS) occurs when price breaks a recent structure point in the direction of the current trend, confirming trend continuation. The system identifies BOS when:
Price breaks above previous high while trend remains bullish (bullish BOS)
Price breaks below previous low while trend remains bearish (bearish BOS)
Previous structure point hasn't been violated yet
Change of Character (CHoCH) signals potential trend reversal when price breaks structure counter to the established trend direction. The system detects CHoCH when:
Price breaks above previous high while trend was bearish (bullish CHoCH - reversal signal)
Price breaks below previous low while trend was bullish (bearish CHoCH - reversal signal)
Both external (e-prefix) and internal (i-prefix) structures generate independent BOS/CHoCH labels, enabling multi-timeframe structure analysis where eCHoCH may signal major reversal while iBOS confirms minor trend within that reversal.
🔶 Intelligent Zone Creation Architecture
Features ATR-based or tick-based zone height calculation with separate sizing for internal and external liquidity levels, creating visual boxes centered on pivot points. The system calculates zone dimensions using configurable ATR multiples (default 0.40x) or fixed tick counts, positions zones symmetrically above/below pivot levels, and applies distinct color schemes distinguishing external highs (red), external lows (white), internal highs (cyan), and internal lows (blue).
🔶 Equal High/Low Detection Mode
Provides advanced internal zone mode that only creates zones when consecutive internal pivots form equal highs or equal lows within ATR-based tolerance, filtering noise and highlighting significant accumulation/distribution patterns. The system tracks previous internal pivots, compares new pivots against tolerance threshold, creates averaged zone when equality detected, and ignores isolated pivots that don't form patterns, reducing visual clutter while emphasizing institutional liquidity clustering.
🔶 Comprehensive Sweep Classification System
Implements three sweep detection modes distinguishing between liquidity grabs and genuine breakouts with state-based zone coloring:
Wick Mode: Marks zone as swept when wick touches but close remains outside
Close Mode: Requires close through zone for sweep classification
Wick+Close Classify Mode: Distinguishes sweeps (S - wick touches, close outside) from breaks (B - close through zone)
The system transitions zones through three states: Active (0 - untouched), Swept (1 - liquidity grabbed), Broken (2 - fully breached), applying progressive transparency increases to visually distinguish state changes and enabling traders to identify false breakouts versus genuine structural violations.
🔶 Objective Arrow Projection Framework
Features intelligent objective labeling that triggers when internal zones are swept, projecting arrows pointing toward opposite external structure as probable targets. The system generates "->ExtH" labels when internal low swept (suggesting move toward external high) and "->ExtL" labels when internal high swept (suggesting move toward external low), providing smart money concept implementation where internal liquidity grabs often precede runs toward external objectives.
🔶 Dynamic Zone Management System
Maintains separate arrays for external and internal zones with configurable history modes and maximum zone limits. The system implements "Latest Only" mode (clears previous external zones of same side when new pivot detected) or "Keep History" mode (preserves all zones up to maximum limit), automatically expires oldest zones when limits reached, and optionally clears all internal zones when new external pivot forms, maintaining clean chart presentation while preserving relevant liquidity context.
🔶 Trend Momentum Scoring Engine
Calculates sophisticated trend state using dual-component analysis combining momentum (price change normalized by volatility) with strength (MA separation and slope alignment). The system generates TrendScore objects containing momentum value, strength percentage, direction (-1/0/+1), and confidence score (0-100), uses these scores to classify BOS versus CHoCH by comparing previous and current trend states, and provides objective structural classification beyond simple price level violations.
🔶 Adaptive Zone Extension Logic
Implements intelligent right-edge management where active zones extend to current bar but freeze at touch/sweep point when cut-on-touch enabled. The system continuously updates zone right boundaries during active state, locks boundary at bar of first violation, and maintains locked position through subsequent bars, creating visual history of when liquidity was accessed while preventing misleading forward projection of filled zones.
🔶 Multi-State Visual Feedback System
Provides comprehensive color and transparency modulation based on zone state with two visual style options. "Soft Fill" mode uses semi-transparent fills with subtle borders, while "Outline" mode displays only colored borders with transparent fills. The system applies progressive transparency increases: Active (light), Swept (medium), Broken (heavy), with independent control over fill and border transparency enabling customization from subtle hints to prominent highlighting.
🔶 Structure Line Visualization Architecture
Creates dashed horizontal lines connecting structure break points to current bar with BOS/CHoCH labels positioned at midpoint between break bar and detection bar. The system draws lines at exact structure level, applies color coding matching bullish (green) or bearish (red) classification, and uses compact labels (eBOS, eCHoCH, iBOS, iCHoCH) for instant structural event identification without cluttering chart with excessive text.
🔶 Performance Optimization Framework
Utilizes efficient array management with configurable maximum limits (default 120 zones each type), automatic cleanup of oldest elements, and optional hiding of filled zones reducing active object count. The system includes intelligent state tracking minimizing recalculation overhead, optimized sweep detection using simple comparison logic, and streamlined zone update loops processing only active zones for consistent performance across extended sessions.
🔶 Why Choose Internal vs External Liquidity Zones ?
This indicator delivers institutional-grade market structure analysis through hierarchical dual-timeframe liquidity mapping with comprehensive BOS/CHoCH detection. The distinction between external (major swing) and internal (minor retracement) structure provides complete smart money concept implementation where external zones define bias and targets while internal zones reveal tactical entries and stop hunts. The system's sweep classification distinguishes liquidity grabs from genuine breakouts, objective arrows project probable targets based on internal sweeps toward external levels, and comprehensive BOS/CHoCH labeling across both timeframes enables multi-dimensional structural analysis. Perfect for order flow traders implementing ICT concepts, liquidity-based strategies, or market maker models in cryptocurrency, forex, and futures markets where understanding the relationship between internal accumulation and external objectives is essential for high-probability trade location and proper risk management.
PinBar Finder by cryptokazancevEnglish description:
This script helps traders identify high-probability reversal points based on price action, specifically Pin Bars — a well-known candlestick pattern used in technical analysis.
What does the indicator do?
It detects bullish and bearish Pin Bars using a custom method for wick-to-body ratio and filters based on historical volatility (pseudo-ATR). A label appears on the chart with detailed info on wick and body size when a valid signal is found.
How does it work?
- The indicator calculates a pseudo-ATR based on the percentage range of the last 1000 candles.
- It then multiplies this value by a user-defined factor (default: 1.1) to set a dynamic threshold for wick size.
- Bullish Pin Bars are detected when the lower wick is at least 1.1 times the body and greater than the dynamic ATR.
- Bearish Pin Bars are detected when the upper wick meets similar conditions.
- Signals are shown using chart labels with exact wick/body percentages.
- Alerts are included for automation or integration with trading bots.
How to use it?
- Add the indicator to any timeframe and asset.
- Use the alerts to notify you when a Pin Bar appears.
- Ideal for traders who use candlestick reversal strategies or combine price action with other confluence tools.
- You can adjust the wick length multiplier to fit the volatility of the instrument.
What makes it original?
Unlike many public scripts that use fixed ratios, this script adapts wick length detection based on recent volatility (pseudo-ATR logic). This makes it more dynamic and suitable for different markets and timeframes.
Описание на русском:
Этот скрипт помогает трейдерам находить точки потенциального разворота на основе прайс-экшена, а именно — свечного паттерна «Пин-бар». Индикатор автоматически определяет бычьи и медвежьи пин-бары с учетом адаптивных параметров волатильности.
Что делает индикатор?
Скрипт ищет свечи, у которых тень в несколько раз превышает тело (пин-бары), и отображает на графике точную информацию о длине тела и тени. Это полезно для трейдеров, использующих свечные сигналы на разворот.
Как работает?
- Рассчитывается псевдо-ATR по 1000 последним свечам на основе процентного диапазона high-low.
- Этот ATR умножается на заданный множитель (по умолчанию: 1.1), чтобы динамически задать минимальную длину тени.
- Бычий пин-бар определяется, когда нижняя тень больше тела в 1.1 раза и превышает ATR.
- Медвежий пин-бар — аналогично, но для верхней тени.
- Индикатор отображает лейблы с точными значениями тела и тени.
- Реализованы условия для оповещений (alerts).
Как использовать?
- Добавьте индикатор на нужный график и таймфрейм.
- Настройте alerts, чтобы не пропустить сигналы.
- Особенно полезен для трейдеров, работающих со свечным анализом, стратегиями разворота, а также в сочетании с другими индикаторами.
В чем оригинальность?
В отличие от многих скриптов, использующих фиксированные параметры, здесь используется динамический расчет длины тени на основе волатильности. Это делает скрипт адаптивным к рынку и таймфрейму.
Strategy Pack by cryptokazancevStrategy Pack by cryptokazancev
Комплексный инструмент для анализа рыночной структуры / Comprehensive Market Structure Analysis Tool
🇷🇺 Описание на русском
Strategy Pack by cryptokazancev - это мощный набор инструментов для технического анализа, включающий:
• Ордерблоки (Order Blocks) с настройкой количества и цветов
• Пивоты (Pivot Points) различных таймфреймов
• Рыночную структуру с зонами Фибоначчи (0.618, 0.786)
• Разворотные конструкции (пинбары и поглощения)
• Зоны интереса на основе скопления свингов
📊 Основные функции:
1. Ордерблоки
- Автоматическое определение бычьих/медвежьих OB
- Настройка максимального количества блоков (до 30)
- Кастомизация цветов
2. Пивоты
- Поддержка таймфреймов: Дневные/Недельные/Месячные/Квартальные/Годовые
- Уровни Camarilla (P, R1-R4, S1-S4)
3. Рыночная структура
- Четкое определение тренда (UP/DOWN)
- Ключевые уровни Фибо (0.618 и 0.786)
- Настройка глубины анализа (10-1000 баров)
4. Разворотные конструкции
- Обнаружение пинбаров
- Обнаружение поглощений
- Настройка чувствительности
5. Зоны интереса
- Алгоритм кластеризации свингов
- Настройка через ATR-мультипликатор
- Лимит отображаемых зон
🇬🇧 English Description
Strategy Pack is a comprehensive market analysis toolkit featuring:
• Order Blocks with customizable count and colors
• Pivot Points for multiple timeframes
• Market Structure with Fibonacci zones
• Reversal patterns (pinbars and engulfings)
• Interest Zones based on swing clustering
📊 Key Features:
1. Order Blocks
- Auto-detection of bullish/bearish OB
- Configurable max blocks (up to 30)
- Custom color schemes
2. Pivot Points
- Supports: Daily/Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly/Yearly
- Camarilla levels (P, R1-R4, S1-S4)
3. Market Structure
- Clear trend detection (UP/DOWN)
- Key Fibonacci levels (0.618 & 0.786)
- Adjustable analysis depth (10-1000 bars)
4. Reversal Patterns
- Smart pinbar detection
- ATR-based engulfing filter
- Sensitivity adjustment
5. Interest Zones
- Swing clustering algorithm
- ATR-multiplier configuration
- Display limit (up to 10 zones)
⚙️ Technical Highlights:
• Built with Pine Script v5
• Performance-optimized
• Well-commented code
• Flexible settings system
⚠️ Важно / Important:
Индикатор в бета-версии. Тестируйте перед использованием в реальной торговле.
This is BETA version. Please test before live trading.
💬 Поддержка / Support:
Комментарии к скрипту / Script comments section
Developer: ZeeZeeMon
CSO FSVZO V104 - BOX & PRICESDescription
Overview
The Apex Adaptive Trend Engine is a high-precision trend-following strategy designed for traders who value clean visual confirmation and strict entry criteria. Built on a Zero-Lag EMA foundation, this system specializes in capturing explosive trend movements while filtering out market noise through a proprietary multi-condition validation process.
Core Logic: How it Works
The strategy utilizes a Volatility-Adjusted Envelope system. Unlike standard moving averages, our engine calculates a "Trend Anker" that adapts to market volatility in real-time.
Trend Identification: Entry signals are generated only when price action breaks out of the dynamic bands with confirmed momentum.
The Apex Filter: To ensure high-quality entries, the system checks for a "Reversal Lock." If a trade hits a Stop Loss, the strategy will not "Double-Dip" into the same direction until a full trend reversal is confirmed, preventing "revenge trading" in a choppy market.
Dynamic Volume Confirmation: (If active) Signals are validated by a Z-Score Volume analysis. This ensures you only enter when there is actual "fuel" (liquidity) behind the move.
Visual Trade Management (Box Tech)
One of the standout features of V104 is the Live Risk Visualization.
Auto-Projections: The moment a signal triggers, the script projects a Green (TP) and Red (SL) box directly onto the chart.
Clean Labeling: Price targets are offset to the right of the current bar to ensure your price action remains clear and readable.
Real-Time Scaling: Boxes expand dynamically as the trade progresses, giving you a professional-grade dashboard for your active positions.
Key Features
MTF Synchronization: Optionally filters entries based on a higher timeframe (e.g., 60m trend) to ensure you are never trading against the "Big Picture".
Zero-Lag Calculation: Optimized EMA lengths (14) provide a perfect balance between speed and reliability.
Pro-Grade Alerts: Specifically defined alerts for BUY and SELL scenarios, making it 100% compatible with automated trading bots and webhooks.
Recommended Timeframes & Assets
Timeframes: Optimized for 15m, 30m, and 1H.
Assets: High liquidity instruments (BTC, ETH, Major Forex Pairs, and Tech Stocks).
How to Use
Wait for a Box: When the Trend Envelopes change color, a Buy/Sell signal will trigger.
Confirm Volume: Ensure the background highlights (optional) show a volume surge.
Follow the Levels: Use the projected Green/Red boxes for your exit management.
Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk. This strategy is for educational and informational purposes. Always perform your own backtests and practice proper risk management.
Logarithmic Fair Value Anchor | PWLogarithmic Fair Value Anchor
This indicator overlays a dynamic "fair value" estimate on the price chart, anchored to the momentum and historical relationship of a user-selected reference asset (e.g., gold, broad liquidity proxies, or major indices). It combines logarithmic deviation analysis with relative valuation to adapt to the anchor's behavior, offering a flexible tool for exploring cross-asset divergences, mean-reversion setups, and contextual extremes.
Core Mechanics and Math Overview
The fair value starts with a baseline: an EMA-smoothed ratio of price to the anchor over the lookback period (default 180 bars). This ratio reflects the historical "normal" relationship between the chart symbol and the anchor.
Anchor momentum is added via the smoothed 1-period ROC of the anchor, scaled by a user-adjustable Momentum Influence Scale (default 5.0 — lower values increase responsiveness). This scaled influence is exponentially applied to adjust the baseline ratio. An optional correlation filter weights the adjustment using absolute log-price correlation (with threshold and manual multiplier). The result is DEMA-smoothed (default length 14) for a responsive yet stable fair value line.
Deviation bands are built multiplicatively around this fair value using exp(deviation * level), preserving log-scale compatibility. Three band types are available:
Log Stdev: Standard deviation of log(price / fair value) — dynamic, volatility-responsive.
Static Sigma: Fixed user-defined deviation (default 0.15) — consistent relative widths.
ATR: Relativized ATR converted to log deviation — range-based smoothing for volatile markets.
Bands use asymmetric multipliers (defaults 1.8 upper / 1.25 lower) with three levels, fills, and markers for visual clarity.
Key Features
Anchor Flexibility: Choose from Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD), S&P 500 (SPX), BTC, or experimental proxies (GLI/M2 aggregates from FRED/ECONOMICS data).
Trend and Visuals: Trend detection (price vs. offset fair value) with optional bar coloring, background highlights for extremes, and diamond markers for overbought/oversold.
Enhanced Info Table (toggleable): Shows current fair value, selected anchor, band type, bias (LONG/SHORT/NEUTRAL), trend duration, trend quality (% clean bars), strength rating (icon-based), z-score deviation (effective band multiple in sigmas + approximate percentile), and valuation (Overvalued/Undervalued/Fair).
Customization: Lookback, offset, smoothing, momentum scale, correlation weighting, band type, multipliers, bar color toggle — adaptable to different assets/timeframes.
What Makes This Approach Distinct
The script uses a smoothed price-to-anchor ratio as its baseline, then applies scaled logarithmic momentum influence to create a fair value that respects both history and external dynamics. This differs from pure moving averages or direct ratio models by incorporating cross-asset momentum in a log framework. Band variety and detailed trend quality/strength metrics provide practical tools for navigating volatility regimes and assessing trend reliability — features not commonly combined in one overlay.
Usage Suggestions
Crypto: Anchor to GLI/M2 for liquidity context; ATR bands help manage volatility. Watch high z-score/percentile or low trend quality for reversals.
Equities/Commodities: Gold for inflation views, S&P for market ties; static sigma for stable benchmarks.
General Tips: Use log scale for visual alignment. Offset (default 90) projects fair value forward. Leverage table metrics — e.g., quality >80% for stronger trends, strength icons for momentum conviction, valuation extremes for mean-reversion ideas. Test anchors and scales to fit your market.
This is an exploratory relative-valuation overlay — results vary by anchor, conditions, and settings. Not financial advice; backtest thoroughly and verify independently.
Notes
Pine Script v6; requires access to external symbols via request.security().
Minor repainting possible on realtime bars due to smoothing and external data.
Community feedback welcome for refinements!
Sakalau02 Weekly Daily SessionsSakalau02: Weekly Daily Sessions – The Architecture of the Trading Week
The "Sakalau02 Weekly Daily Sessions" is a high-definition visual mapping tool designed to dissect the trading week into distinct daily blocks. More than just a period separator, this script defines the "field of play" for each day, allowing you to visualize where liquidity builds and how price interacts with temporal boundaries.
Here is why this script is the cornerstone of a professional Top-Down analysis:
📅 High-Definition Daily Structure
The indicator transforms your chart into a logical map of the week, providing visual support for all 7 days, with a focus on active trading from Monday to Friday.
Visual Identity: Each day is assigned its own unique color, helping you instantly recognize repetitive market signatures (like the "Tuesday Reversal" or "Mid-week Expansion").
Timezone Precision: Featuring a dedicated Timezone Input, the script ensures that daily boxes open exactly at 00:00 according to your chosen financial hub (UTC, New York, London, etc.).
📐 Range and Liquidity Analysis
Through its Dynamic Box System, the script monitors price evolution in real-time:
High/Low Tracking: Automatically expands the box boundaries as price carves out new daily highs or lows.
The 0.5 Level (Daily Equilibrium): Automatically calculates the midpoint of the entire day. This is the critical "Fair Value" zone where price decides whether to trend or mean-revert.
Open/Close Trajectory: A discreet line tracks price relative to the daily open, providing an instant read on the intraday bias (Bullish/Bearish).
⚡ Precision Alert System
Never miss a structural shift. The indicator comes equipped with built-in alerts for:
Session Starts: Be notified the moment a new daily cycle begins.
Liquidity Sweeps (New High/Low): Receive alerts the second price breaches the current day’s high or low—perfect for executing Judas Swings or Expansion setups.
💎 Versatile Display Modes
Boxes Mode: Encapsulates price for a clear view of market structure.
Zones Mode: Highlights the background for a cleaner integration with secondary indicators.
Timeline Mode: Marks the base of the chart, keeping the price action area completely untouched.
Piața nu este doar preț, este ritm. În timp ce alții se pierd în zgomotul fiecărei secunde, eu definesc limitele zilei. O structură creată pentru traderul care știe că volumul urmează timpul, iar profitul urmează disciplina — păstrați ochii pe echilibrul zilei!" — Semnat, Andrei (Sakalau02) ⏳
Swing Trade StrategySwing Trade Strategy
📊 Overview
Multi-indicator trend-following system for cryptocurrency swing trading. Combines 10 technical indicators with weighted voting to identify high-probability trend reversals.
🎯 Key Features
10 indicators with weighted consensus voting (max 13 points Bull/Bear)
Trend confirmation system reduces false signals
Visual signals: Green/red trend line, buy/sell arrows, position backgrounds
Real-time dashboard: Shows Bull/Bear scores and trend strength
Long-only positions with automatic exits during bear markets
📈 How It Works
Entry: When Bull score exceeds Bear score by +2 (WEAK BULL) or +5 (STRONG BULL), confirmed over 2 bars
Exit: When Bear score exceeds Bull score by -2, confirmed over 2 bars
Indicators: RMI, ALMA, CTI, EMA crossovers, DEMA DMI, Stochastic, Trend Oscillators, and more
📊 Performance Characteristics
Trades: 4-5 per year (swing trading approach)
Win Rate: 39% (fewer wins but larger gains)
Profit Factor: 2.4+ (winners are 2.4x larger than losers)
Max Drawdown: -42%
⚙️ Settings
Timeframe: Daily (1D) recommended
Position Size: 95% of equity
Commission: 0.1% per trade
Asset: Optimized for BTC/crypto
💡 Usage
Apply to BTC Daily chart
Green arrow = BUY, Red arrow = SELL
Monitor dashboard for trend strength
Hold positions until opposite signal
⚠️ Risk Warning
Max 42% drawdown - high risk tolerance required
Long-only strategy - no shorting
Optimized for crypto markets
Past performance ≠ future results
Version: 1.0 | Pine Script: v6 | Style: Trend Following
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
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[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
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Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
