A bump and run reversal patterm was first theorized by Thomas Bulkowski and was first introduced in June 1997 "Technical Analysis of Stock and Commodities" and is also found his book "The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns". I cannot remember the exact page so I will just give the stock charts source (apologies I'm lazy) stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s... .
In summary we have the "lead" phase which occurs over a month or more where the price is on a steady uptrend on a rough 30-45 degree angle. Volume is uniform and there is not a great deal of speculation.
Next is the "bump" phase were there is a massive spike in volume and prices progress at an unsustainable rate usually at a trend angle of 45 degrees typically higher. Note the bump angle must be 50% higher than the lead in angle.
I understand the angle of the trend line is relative to your chart zoom but taking the ratio between the trend angles at different zooms you always end up with a ratio of 1.5 or higher (50%).
The last phase is the "run" phase which occurs when the lead in phase trend line is broken and note that prices often bounce or hesitate at the trend line before a further decline.
We can plainly see these phases in BTC, the volume supports this as well and it could mean we are in one ugly bull trap. This is by no means my primary scenario I just came across this interesting reversal pattern and saw BTC's chart displays striking characteristics of the reversal so I thought I would share. The bounce we have got is quite significant so I believe this scenario will only play out IF we cannot break the local inverse Head and shoulders neckline and close below 10700 on the daily chart (local uptrend line). If we break the lead in phase trend line I believe we should get a bounce at $4500 which is the next significant uptrend line.
I am new to this reversal pattern so critique on the analysis is welcome.
In summary we have the "lead" phase which occurs over a month or more where the price is on a steady uptrend on a rough 30-45 degree angle. Volume is uniform and there is not a great deal of speculation.
Next is the "bump" phase were there is a massive spike in volume and prices progress at an unsustainable rate usually at a trend angle of 45 degrees typically higher. Note the bump angle must be 50% higher than the lead in angle.
I understand the angle of the trend line is relative to your chart zoom but taking the ratio between the trend angles at different zooms you always end up with a ratio of 1.5 or higher (50%).
The last phase is the "run" phase which occurs when the lead in phase trend line is broken and note that prices often bounce or hesitate at the trend line before a further decline.
We can plainly see these phases in BTC, the volume supports this as well and it could mean we are in one ugly bull trap. This is by no means my primary scenario I just came across this interesting reversal pattern and saw BTC's chart displays striking characteristics of the reversal so I thought I would share. The bounce we have got is quite significant so I believe this scenario will only play out IF we cannot break the local inverse Head and shoulders neckline and close below 10700 on the daily chart (local uptrend line). If we break the lead in phase trend line I believe we should get a bounce at $4500 which is the next significant uptrend line.
I am new to this reversal pattern so critique on the analysis is welcome.
评论:
Man just woke up to some crazy FUD, if BTC can hold this level and not drop back into the downward channel I will remain neutral. If not then this becomes my primary scenario.
交易开始:
It seems the bump and run reversal is quite indicative, the lead trend line has been broken and we are facing a potential drop to $4500.
