The chart is illustrative. I think we'll slow down & take some time in each accumulation zone. Chinese NY is the 16th.
BTC is like an index. In the short-term, its dominance level is likely to stay; perhaps it could even go a little higher around / after the breakout. Coins that significantly & consistently outperform BTC are the ones to hold. Those that underperform BTC are speculation-only IMHO.
Perhaps when RSI goes to 50 & UO under 40 on 4h scale we could be ready for the push.
I think we're not ready for breakout today; a revisit later to 7.8k & hard bounce w/ volume combined with the oscillators as I mentioned in my last update should be the signal.
After capitulation, many people are in despair. A small fall after the bounce has scared them. Surely we couldn't go straight up even in the most bullish markets?!
I'd say the chance of a 6k retest is minimal, but a retest of 7k is possible.
I'd like to see that we accumulate for a while & build a strong base.
We need to accumulate, and within the range it's likely to come down. If there's no rush sell-off during this, the market sentiment can be confirmed to be warming up.
Also, like I mentioned yesterday in the comment section that I think the ones that are likely to perform well are those with solid fundamentals & great progress: I believe in the beginning of a market cycle people are more cautious; it's towards the end, when the market is euphoric, that people buy into undelivered promises.
It's one of my investment principles. I can't post the link here because I'm not a "premium member" & not allowed to promote myself. I may subscribe if I get to make a little this year. Cash flow is tight.
Nevertheless, IMHO we're not going to break out just yet. Perhaps this evening or tomorrow. Again, this breakout will likely be followed by a retest (as this post original suggests).