Historiker weisen regelmässig auf den Zusammenhang zwischen Aussen- und Innenpolitik hin. Aussenpolitische Konflikte wurden teils bis hin zu Kriegen eskaliert. Trumps "Trade War" ist ein weiteres Beispiel dafür - in diesem Fall geht es um einen Handelskrieg gegen die eigenen Verbündeten und gegen China sowie Südamerika. Zeitlicher Ablauf und Hintergrund der Einführung der "Strafzölle" ergeben sich bereits aus den headlines und werden auch so von Anlegern wahrgenommen. Die kommende Woche wird interessant.
Die News (selbsterklärend):
16.03.2018, 12.53 Uhr:
"PORNO-STAR „STORMY DANIELS“ PACKT BEI CBS AUS Der 25. März könnte Trumps schwärzester Tag werden
17.03.2018 - 03:36 Uhr: "Erst vergangene Woche wirbelt US-Präsident Donald Trump mit der Ankündigung von Schutzzöllen auf Aluminium und Stahl das globale Handelssystem auf, jetzt geht es ganz schnell. Trump verliert keine Zeit: US-Schutzzölle sollen nächste Woche greifen. Großbritanniens Handelsminister findet die Umstände "ein wenig seltsam". n-tv.de/politik/US-Schutzzoelle-sollen-naechste-Woche-greifen-article20341036.html
vs. 17.03.2018, 10.00 Uhr
Zwei Tage vor Pensionierung Trump feuert widerspenstigen Ex-FBI-Vize
Der nächste Rauswurf aus der US-Regierung lässt nicht lange auf sich warten. Nun trifft es den ehemaligen FBI-Vizedirektor Andrew McCabe, der lange ein Dorn im Auge des US-Präsidenten war. Die Umstände machen seinen Fall allerdings besonders bizarr. mobil.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-feuert-widerspenstigen-Ex-FBI-Vize-article20341080.html
Am Dienstag hat US Präsident Trump bereits eine Nachwahl verloren, die er nicht hätte verlieren dürfen:
(Chart bitte anklicken um facts & figures zu laden)
Cls.: Vor der Ausstrahlung des Interviews reagiert Trump zunehmend gehetzter und aggressiver während Anleger zunehmend gelassener werden. Den DAX erwartet eine mehr als spannende Handelswoche. Für Trump dagegen droht der 25. März der Anfangspunkt seines politischen Endes zu werden.
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Streit um angebliche Affäre Trump erwägt Millionenklage gegen Pornodarstellerin Stormy Daniels
This political-risk gauge just hit a 15-year high — and here’s what it means for the stock market
Published: Mar 17, 2018 12:41 p.m. ET
Add heightened political risk to the growing number of factors that have been contributing to volatility on Wall Street.
In fact, according to Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen, one measure of political risk is at its highest level since 2003, during President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq.
Hansen highlighted the Geopolitical Risk Index in a tweet (pointed out in MarketWatch’s Need to Know column), noting that the previous high for the GRI was back in August during intensifying fears that North Korea could spark a military, or even nuclear, conflict:
So, how is this filtering through trade on Wall Street?
In 2017, political turmoil and geopolitical fears meant very little for the S&P 500, Dow and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.00% which finished the year with gains between 19% and about 28%.
However, several strategists have made the case that the asset that has borne the brunt of political uncertainty—not even to mention the implications of a full-blown trade war sparked by tariffs on steel and aluminum imports—is the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.07%
Bloomberg spricht von „Showdown“. Um von „Stormy Daniels“ abzulenken bleibt Trump nur noch, Sonderermittler Trump zu feuern. Trumps „last bullet“.
Trump Lawyer, in Shift, Calls for Mueller’s Probe to End
Signs that showdown may be nearing on collusion investigation
President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer called for Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into alleged collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign to end, hours after the former FBI deputy director was fired by Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
The statement was a dramatic shift from the Trump legal team’s previous commitment to fully cooperate with Mueller. Trump’s lawyers have asserted in the past -- and Trump said again on Saturday -- that the president’s campaign didn’t collude with the Russian government, and predicted that the probe would be complete by now. Democrats warned the president against trying to shut down the probe. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-17/sessions-fires-fbi-official-right-before-he-was-to-retire
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ANDREW MCCABE
Gefeuerter Ex-FBI-Vize soll Trump-Gespräche mitgeschrieben haben Knapp zwei Tage vor dessen Pensionierung feuerte Trump Ex-FBI-Vize Andrew McCabe. Der soll Notizen über beunruhigende Äußerungen Trumps besitzen.
WashingtonDer gerade von der US-Regierung gefeuerte ehemalige FBI-Vizedirektor Andrew McCabe hat nach Informationen der Nachrichtenagentur AP persönliche Notizen über US-Präsident Donald Trump geführt. Die Notizen ähnelten denen des von Trump im Mai entlassenen FBI-Direktors James Comey, erklärte am Samstag eine mit dem Vorgang vertraute Person, die nicht genannt werde möchte. Comey machte sich Notizen von Gesprächen mit Trump, die ihn nach eigener Aussage beunruhigten.
Mueller has McCabe memos documenting conversations with Trump
Washington (CNN)Special counsel Robert Mueller has memos written by former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe documenting his conversations with President Donald Trump, a person familiar with the matter told CNN. The memos also detail what former FBI Director James Comey told McCabe about his own interactions with Trump while he was FBI director, the source said, and are seen as a way to corroborate Comey's account in Mueller's probe on Russian interference in the 2016 election. Attorney General Jeff Sessions fired McCabe on Friday, about a day before his 50th birthday and the date he was set to retire and begin receiving his anticipated pension, over accusations that McCabe directed FBI officials to speak to the media about an investigation tied to the Clinton Foundation and misled investigators about his actions. Following his firing Friday, McCabe told CNN in an interview that he had four interactions with the President last May, while he was acting FBI director. edition.cnn.com/2018/03/17/politics/mccabe-memos-trump/index.html
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Comey issues uncharacteristically direct response to Trump: Everyone 'will hear my story very soon'
China and Germany agree to work on steel overcapacity following US tariffs German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed overcapacity in world steel markets and agreed on Saturday to work on solutions within G20.
They also underscored the importance of multilateral cooperation on global trade, a pointed response to an accelerating shift away from multilateral action and institutions by the U.S. under Trump. The Merkel-Xi call came amid tensions between the U.S., Europe and China over U.S. tariffs, and China's rejection of U.S. legislation encouraging an exchange of officials between the United States and Taiwan. cnbc.com/2018/03/17/china-and-germany-agree-to-work-on-steel-overcapacity-following-us-tariffs.html
注释
FOXnews: foxnews.com/ Am 18.03.2017: Keine Headlines oder Titelstory, die sich auf Trumps Seite stellt.
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Sonntag, 18. März 2018 Sex, Lügen und WahldebakelTrump ringt nach Chaoswoche um Kontrolle
Von Roland Peters
Seinen Außenminister und andere feuert US-Präsident Trump, sein Wirtschaftsberater schmeißt hin. Er kassiert im Sinne der Waffenlobby Versprechen und prahlt damit, keine Ahnung zu haben. Dazu kommen düstere Vorzeichen für November. n-tv.de/politik/Trump-ringt-nach-Chaoswoche-um-Kontrolle-article20341665.html
Trump Twitter vs. Facts: Trump zunehmend sprachlos - und die für Trump alles entscheidende Woche hat gerade einmal erst begonnen.Die US Aktienmärkte rutschen ab, facebook crashed. Aktueller Trump Tweet: Gerade einmal 9 Wörter - keine Fakten.
Donald Trump's weekend of assaults on Robert Mueller's investigation pushed Washington closer than ever to the major crisis of governance that could ensue if the President were to act on his fury and fire the special counsel. The President's lambasting of the Russia probe and the administration's sacking of former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe prompted warnings from key Republicans that he would send the country over a cliff if he tried to dismiss Mueller. And the White House will Monday face uncomfortable new questions about the Trump team's conduct during the 2016 election after Facebook suspended Cambridge Analytica, a data firm used by President's campaign, over allegations it used the data of 50 million users of the social media site without their permission.
Trump's major agenda push this week will highlight his plan to tackle the opioid crisis. But it's a good bet that initiative will be overtaken by a fresh round of West Wing chaos, speculation about personnel shake-ups and revelations about the legal duel between the President and Stormy Daniels, a porn star who claims she had an affair with Trump more than decade ago. edition.cnn.com/2018/03/19/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-washington-week/index.html
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Trump tweets 'WITCH HUNT' following his attacks on Mueller
"A total WITCH HUNT with massive conflicts of interest!" Trump tweeted. He has frequently slammed the probe as a "witch hunt," dismissing it as a frivolous investigation launched by his political enemies seeking to delegitimize his election victory.
Trump lashed out at Mueller's team over the weekend, as well as former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, and former FBI Director James Comey, raising fresh speculation that the President could seek to fire Mueller. The White House publicly denied Sunday that Trump would do so. Trump has previously accused Mueller's investigative team as being politically biased, pointing to some of the lawyers who have donated to Democrats over the years. Over the weekend, he said the team has "13 hardened Democrats, some big Crooked Hillary supporters, and Zero Republicans."
Selbst FOXnews rücken immer weiter von Trump ab - und das Interview mit "Stormy Daniels" kommt erst noch:
Fox News senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano explained Monday why he believes the firing of FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe could be viewed as "obstruction of justice." McCabe was fired Friday, two days before he was set to officially retire and receive pension benefits. The FBI’s Office of Professional Responsibility made the recommendation to Attorney General Jeff Sessions to terminate McCabe, accusing him of a "lack of candor" under oath. Napolitano said he sees the firing as "reckless" and "vindictive" because McCabe is "more likely than not to be a witness" against Sessions' boss, President Trump. insider.foxnews.com/2018/03/19/judge-napolitano-andrew-mccabe-firing-could-be-obstruction-justice
The Stormy Daniels saga could turn into a big deal for Mueller's Trump probe, experts say
Porn star Stormy Daniels is suing President Trump to void a non-disclosure agreement barring her from discussing an alleged affair with Trump. Asked whether he has been contacted by special counsel Robert Mueller's team about the lawsuit, Daniels' lawyer told CNBC: "I'm not at liberty to answer that question one way or the other." Questions over possible campaign finance law violations could be of interest to Mueller. cnbc.com/2018/03/19/stormy-daniels-saga-could-turn-be-big-deal-for-muellers-trump-probe.html
Cambridge Analytica suspends CEO Alexander Nix after undercover recordings air
We did all the research, all the data, all the analytics, all the targeting," Nix said. "We ran all the digital campaign, the television campaign, and our data informed all the strategy." Alex Tayler, labeled as the chief data officer for Cambridge Analytica, is recorded separately as saying the firm's analysis was responsible for Trump's Electoral College performance. Cambridge Analytica responds after CEO filmed discussing bribery and entrapment "When you think about the fact that Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million votes, but won the Electoral College, that's down to the data and the research," Tayler said. "That's how he won the election." edition.cnn.com/2018/03/20/politics/alexander-nix-cambridge-analytica/index.html
Donald Trump war einst ein gescheiterter Mann. Ein Zufall und die goldene Idee eines Fernsehproduzenten retteten den heutigen US-Präsidenten - und machten ihn zum Superstar.
Stocks- U.S. Futures Fall as Trump Set for Chinese Tariffs
U.S. Futures pointed to a lower opening bell on Thursday, as investor concern over a possible trade war resurfaced after news that U.S. President Donald Trump is imposing tariffs on Chinese imports. The S&P 500 futures was down 19 points or 0.71% to 2,699.0 as of 6:43 AM ET (10:43 GMT) while Dow futures decreased 176 points or 0.71% to 24,551.0. Meanwhile tech heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 79 points or 1.15% to 6,804.50. Trump is expected to announce tariffs targeting $60 billion in Chinese imports aimed at curbing theft of U.S. technology, rising fears of a global trade war. He is set to sign an order "targeting China's economic aggression" at 12:30PM ET (16:30 GMT), which will be imposed under Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act. China is already preparing to retaliate with tariffs focused on U.S. exports of soybeans, sorghum and live hogs. investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks-us-futures-fall-as-trump-set-for-chinese-tariffs-1353957
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Trumps Ablenkungsgefechte wirken zunehmend stärker auf die US Aktienmärkte:
Trump's big tariff blow on China may cause a backlash against Boeing
President Donald Trump will announce tariffs on China on Thursday to curb theft of U.S. technology. If Trump imposes a $60 billion tariff on Chinese goods, China can slap back against U.S. companies, such as Boeing. Boeing has announced China will buy about $1 trillion of aircraft over the next 20 years. Aircraft is a top U.S. export to China. Boeing has contributed 24 percent of the gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since December 2016. cnbc.com/2018/03/22/trumps-big-tariff-blow-on-china-may-cause-a-backlash-against-boeing.html
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US Sentimentindikatoren steigen erneut auf Crashniveaus: Kaufsignal folgt erfahrungsgemäss bereits kurze Zeit später.
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Trump lenkt die gesamte Aufmerksamkeit auf "seinen" trade war, um von Stormy Daniels abzulenken:
Anwalt von Pornostar droht Donald Trump mit Datenträger Gegenüber dem amerikanischen Fernsehsender CNN sagte er, dass der Datenträger Beweise für die Aussagen seiner Mandantin enthalte. So sei das Foto eine Warnung an Trumps Anwälte. Diese sollten nach Sonntagnacht besser sehr, sehr vorsichtig sein. Am Sonntagabend tritt die Darstellerin in dem TV-Magazin „60 Minutes“ auf. welt.de/politik/ausland/article174862275/Stormy-Daniels-Anwalt-von-Pornostar-droht-Donald-Trump-mit-Datentraeger.html
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End of day, 23.03.2018: Extremwerte für US Sentiment Indikatoren
15:04 Uhr USA weisen 60 russische Geheimdienstmitarbeiter aus
Jetzt geht's Schlag auf Schlag: Nach Deutschland weisen nun auch die USA russische Geheimdienstmitarbeiter aus. Allerdings nicht nur vier, sondern gleich 60. Außerdem werde das russische Konsulat in Seattle geschlossen, hieß es vom Weißen Haus. Hintergrund ist auch hier der Giftanschlag auf Sergej Skripal. mobil.n-tv.de/der_tag/Montag-26-Maerz-2018-article20354144.html
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„Stormy Daniels“ ist durch ....
USA verhandeln nun doch mit China
Seit vergangenen Freitag gelten in den USA Strafzölle auf Stahl und Aluminium aus China - doch nun gibt es offenbar doch noch Verhandlungen. Das teilt der Handelsberater des US-Präsidenten, Peter Navarro gegenüber einem TV-Sender mit. Finanzminister Steven Mnuchin und der US-Handelsbeauftragte Robert Lighthizer verhandelten mit ihren chinesischen Kollegen, um bestehende Differenzen auszuräumen, hieß es. mobil.n-tv.de/der_tag/Montag-26-Maerz-2018-article20354144.html
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U.S., South Korea to revise trade pact with currency side-deal, autos concessions
Trump's China tariffs may not begin until June -U.S. officials U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods may not be imposed until early June, administration officials said on Wednesday, with public consultations and potential tariff revisions buying time for negotiations to forestall them. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he anticipates about 60 days worth of public comment on a soon-to-be published tariff list, but added that it would take years to bring the U.S.-China trading relationship "to a good place." investing.com/news/economy-news/us-trade-chief-to-give-china-60day-tariff-notice-sees-yearslong-effort-1368309
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Trump's three-front legal war turns on sex, money and Russia
A barrage of revelations and court gambits over the last 48 hours has left President Donald Trump and his shrinking legal team fighting an escalating battle on multiple fronts -- involving an explosive triumvirate of sex, Russia and money.
Fox News und die Karawane Warum Trump Ostern die Kontrolle verlor
Vermutlich waren es die Bilder aus dem Frühstücksfernsehen von Fox News. Der Sender, eine der Hauptinformationsquellen des US-Präsidenten, berichtete über eine "Karawane" von Hunderten Flüchtlingen aus Zentralamerika, die unter der Führung der Organisation Pueblo Sin Fronteras (Menschen ohne Grenzen) durch Mexiko marschierte, um in den USA Asyl zu beantragen. mobil.n-tv.de/politik/Warum-Trump-Ostern-die-Kontrolle-verlor-article20365706.html
Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen in Europa ist im Februar weiter zurückgegangen. Wie das EU-Statistikamt Eurostat mitteilte, sank die Erwerbslosenquote in der Eurozone saisonbereinigt auf 8,5 Prozent, in der gesamten EU auf 7,1 Prozent. Dies war in beiden Fällen der niedrigste Stand seit gut neun Jahren. Vor einem Jahr lag die Rate noch einen Prozentpunkt höher. In der Hochphase der Euro-Schuldenkrise war die Arbeitslosenquote zeitweise sogar auf über zwölf Prozent gestiegen. n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Arbeitslosigkeit-so-gering-wie-zuletzt-2008-article20367222.html
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Globale „Larry Kudlow Rallye“
Aktien Frankfurt Schluss: Anleger jubeln über versöhnliche Töne im Handelsstreit FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Die jüngste Erholung am deutschen Aktienmarkt hat sich am Donnerstag deutlich beschleunigt. Unter den Anlegern sorgten beschwichtigende Äußerungen der US-Regierung im Handelskonflikt mit China für spürbare Erleichterung. Der Dax baute seine Gewinne stetig aus und schloss 2,90 Prozent höher bei 12 305,19 Punkten. Der hiesige Leitindex erreichte das höchste Niveau seit rund zwei Wochen und verzeichnete den größten prozentualen Tagesgewinn seit rund einem Jahr.
Trump ändert seine Tonlage: "Best buddy" von Chinas President Xi und harter Kämpfer gegen "Animal Assat" nach den Giftgasangriffen.
"President Xi and I will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!" twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982954355509907457
Many dead, including women and children, in mindless CHEMICAL attack in Syria. Area of atrocity is in lockdown and encircled by Syrian Army, making it completely inaccessible to outside world. President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible for backing Animal Assad. Big price...
....to pay. Open area immediately for medical help and verification. Another humanitarian disaster for no reason whatsoever. SICK!
Very thankful for President Xi of China’s kind words on tariffs and automobile barriers...also, his enlightenment on intellectual property and technology transfers. We will make great progress together! twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/983774270886236161?s=20
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A Syria decision hadn't been made when Trump tweeted missiles 'will be coming'
President Donald Trump's morning declaration that "nice and new and 'smart'" missiles would soon be fired toward Syria caught most of his aides off guard and came before an agreement had been reached between key US allies, multiple American and Western officials said on Wednesday.
That Trump would surprise staffers and allies with a morning tweet is not new; he regularly sets his own tone for the day on Twitter based on cable television and his own mood. But Wednesday's messages were unique in their telegraphing of upcoming US military action, something Trump vowed he would never do as president. edition.cnn.com/2018/04/11/politics/donald-trump-syria-tweets/index.html
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Verwendung von Wahlkampfhilfen? Trump erstattete Zahlung an Pornostar
US-Präsident Donald Trump hat nach Angaben seines neuen Anwalts, Rudy Giuliani, seinem Rechtsvertreter Michael Cohen die Zahlung von 130.000 Dollar an die Pornodarstellerin Stormy Daniels erstattet. Das Geld sei von Trumps Anwalt gezahlt worden, der Präsident habe es über mehrere Monate hinweg zurückerstattet, sagte Giuliani dem Sender Fox News. Giuliani betonte, die Zahlung habe keinen Verstoß gegen das Gesetz zur Wahlkampffinanzierung dargestellt. mobil.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-erstattete-Zahlung-an-Pornostar-article20416053.html
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Trump praises China's Xi as U.S. team arrives for trade talks
U.S. President Donald Trump praised his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a U.S. delegation arrived in Beijing on Thursday for talks on tariffs, with state media saying China will stand up to U.S. bullying.A breakthrough deal to fundamentally change China's economic policies is viewed as highly unlikely during the two-day visit, though a package of short-term Chinese measures could delay a U.S. decision to impose tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese exports.The discussions, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, are expected to cover a wide range of U.S. complaints about China's trade practices, from accusations of forced technology transfers to state subsidies for technology development."Thrilled to be here. Thank you," Mnuchin told Reuters on arriving at his hotel, when asked if he expected progress. He made no other comments.As Mnuchin arrived, Trump tweeted: "Our great financial team is in China trying to negotiate a level playing field on trade! I look forward to being with President Xi in the not too distant future. We will always have a good (great) relationship!" investing.com/news/economy-news/chinese-state-media-cautious-as-us-delegation-flies-in-for-trade-talks-1428215
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Trump hat Anwalt Schweigegeld für Daniels erstattet
Erst will er nichts von der Zahlung gewusst haben, dann ruderte sein Rechtsberater Rudy Guiliani zurück. Jetzt belegt ein Dokument, dass US-Präsident Donald Trump seinem Anwalt Michael Cohen tatsächlich die Kosten zurückerstattet hat, die dessen Zahlung an die Pornodarstellerin Stormy Daniels entsprechen.
Das geht aus einer jährlichen Finanzaufstellung des Präsidenten hervor, die von der Ethikbehörde der US-Regierung veröffentlicht wurde. Der Anwalt Cohen hatte der Pornodarstellerin kurz vor der Präsidentschaftswahl im November 2016 für ein Stillhalteabkommen 130.000 Dollar gezahlt, damit sie nicht über eine angebliche Affäre mit Trump sprechen würde. mobil.n-tv.de/der_tag/Mittwoch-16-Mai-2018-article20436104.html