DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSIS

In recent weeks the Dollar Index has moved within a rectangle. If we take the analysis on a "fundamental" level, it could be an inversion rectangle.

Yesterday, the Fed raised rates. In the early hours, the dollar strengthened. It was enough, however, a reading of the Economic Projections to understand that the dollar came out weakened by the meeting. Briefly, almost all data were revised downwards (compared to the previous September report). In particular, the GDP dropped from 3.1% to 3.0% for this year and from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2019. The rate hikes, forecast three times in 2019, fell to two (at the moment). So, fewer rate hikes and weakened economic conditions certainly don't help the dollar.

However, we have to take into account that, right now, it's not the best time to trade. In five days it's Christmas, and most of the big investors are currently out of the markets. So, everything becomes more complicated. In the medium-term, I'm convinced that we will see a drop in the dollar but in the short-term, anything can happen.

To all of you Merry Christmas and a New Year full of gains!!