Since my first analysis, IOTA has found bottom at the previous long term support level between 4400 and 4800 and bounced with massive volume. In that post, I wrote when it was still in the 4800 area: "As you can see, we're clearly in the final buying zone for IOTA. We had a nice green doji candle that took us briefly back to 5200 on high volume. Looking at the chart, we can see that the volume on this bounce was greater than the recent sell volume. If IOTA is to make a bigger bounce, I'd like to see another big buying candle appear over the next day or two, to take us back above the triangle resistance." I posted this BEFORE the bounce. A lot of analysts will post about a trading opportunity after it's already happened. I try to do my best to ANTICIPATE a move, because it gives you much more control as a trader.
On top of that, I speculated that we could potentially use IOTA as a bellwether for the altcoin market, since it has such a defined market cycle against Bitcoin, with a very obvious bottom range and top. It also seemed to be accelerating its bottoming process, causing many investors to be concerned. I posted my chart right as it was heading towards the bottom of its range, and voila! It bounced nearly 50% from its bottom, with some very bullish news to boot! Since then, IOTA has retraced substantially, so those expecting it to continue rising may find current prices an attractive entry point. How about that timing though?
If IOTA is going to consolidate and move up, I'd expect the current 5400-5600 area to be a good zone to load up for these potential target zones:
8000-8200
9800-1100
12800-13200
Other potential buy in points:
4700-5000
A stop loss should probably be set below our 4400 low, just in case...though giant stop hunts often occur in this market. IOTA could experience an even bigger retrace before moving up (BNB did something similar before its unstoppable bull run).
So far today, I like what I'm seeing with the rest of the altcoin market. As per my most recent video, we've continued to hold the long term support. There is still a possibility for a breakdown though, and one should always be prepared for all possible outcomes.
Many people are still expecting a big drop here in Bitcoin. However, the market is very different from 2015. Instead of Bitcoin dropping back to the lows, it may be enough that altcoins have created second bottoms or ventured to new lows on their Bitcoin ratios. Some altcoins may even be experiencing pretty enormous bear traps (XLM and NEO, for example), if they bounce hard from current levels. This is based on the massive buying volume they experienced when they were at lower USD valuations (but higher BTC valuations). This divergence is confusing to many people, because it seems like many alts are bearish, when they are in fact looking quite healthy in terms of how they've recovered from their bottoms (so far). The recovery we're seeing in the cryptocurrency market right now, by the way, is perfectly in line with what happened to many stocks after the dotcom bubble popped and bottomed out.
Due to this comparison to the dotcom bubble, Bitcoin DOES NOT have to retest the lows before moving up further. Let's also look at BNB as an example. Binance Coin may very well never see the $4-6 area again. The people waiting for a pullback never got their opportunity. Markets don't have to offer many chances to get in, even for experienced traders. This is why my strategy since the $3K area for Bitcoin has been to simply hold, and occasionally take small short term trading opportunities.
A failure for the market at this sensitive point in time (on our long term trendline) would make a future recovery very difficult indeed. This is why I kind of see it as an "all or nothing " moment. Those with a bit too much money in the market may want to de-risk at this point, especially with the Tether situation. I'm sure many have done so already.
Ideally, I'd like to see more bullish momentum for altcoins in the coming days. The recent trend has been for just one or two alts to take center stage while everything else bleeds. This trend needs to stop if we're to remain bullish, as it indicates that the market is being controlled by day traders and bots, rather than people with capital they want to invest for the long term.
Anyway, this is for educational and speculative purposes only. Not financial advice.
Good luck everyone!
Below, you can find my ETH comparison to the dotcom bubble recovery, my terminal shakeout analyses on ONT, NEO, and XLM, as well as my first IOTA chart, speculating about a possible alt cycle.
-Victor Cobra
On top of that, I speculated that we could potentially use IOTA as a bellwether for the altcoin market, since it has such a defined market cycle against Bitcoin, with a very obvious bottom range and top. It also seemed to be accelerating its bottoming process, causing many investors to be concerned. I posted my chart right as it was heading towards the bottom of its range, and voila! It bounced nearly 50% from its bottom, with some very bullish news to boot! Since then, IOTA has retraced substantially, so those expecting it to continue rising may find current prices an attractive entry point. How about that timing though?
If IOTA is going to consolidate and move up, I'd expect the current 5400-5600 area to be a good zone to load up for these potential target zones:
8000-8200
9800-1100
12800-13200
Other potential buy in points:
4700-5000
A stop loss should probably be set below our 4400 low, just in case...though giant stop hunts often occur in this market. IOTA could experience an even bigger retrace before moving up (BNB did something similar before its unstoppable bull run).
So far today, I like what I'm seeing with the rest of the altcoin market. As per my most recent video, we've continued to hold the long term support. There is still a possibility for a breakdown though, and one should always be prepared for all possible outcomes.
Many people are still expecting a big drop here in Bitcoin. However, the market is very different from 2015. Instead of Bitcoin dropping back to the lows, it may be enough that altcoins have created second bottoms or ventured to new lows on their Bitcoin ratios. Some altcoins may even be experiencing pretty enormous bear traps (XLM and NEO, for example), if they bounce hard from current levels. This is based on the massive buying volume they experienced when they were at lower USD valuations (but higher BTC valuations). This divergence is confusing to many people, because it seems like many alts are bearish, when they are in fact looking quite healthy in terms of how they've recovered from their bottoms (so far). The recovery we're seeing in the cryptocurrency market right now, by the way, is perfectly in line with what happened to many stocks after the dotcom bubble popped and bottomed out.
Due to this comparison to the dotcom bubble, Bitcoin DOES NOT have to retest the lows before moving up further. Let's also look at BNB as an example. Binance Coin may very well never see the $4-6 area again. The people waiting for a pullback never got their opportunity. Markets don't have to offer many chances to get in, even for experienced traders. This is why my strategy since the $3K area for Bitcoin has been to simply hold, and occasionally take small short term trading opportunities.
A failure for the market at this sensitive point in time (on our long term trendline) would make a future recovery very difficult indeed. This is why I kind of see it as an "all or nothing " moment. Those with a bit too much money in the market may want to de-risk at this point, especially with the Tether situation. I'm sure many have done so already.
Ideally, I'd like to see more bullish momentum for altcoins in the coming days. The recent trend has been for just one or two alts to take center stage while everything else bleeds. This trend needs to stop if we're to remain bullish, as it indicates that the market is being controlled by day traders and bots, rather than people with capital they want to invest for the long term.
Anyway, this is for educational and speculative purposes only. Not financial advice.
Good luck everyone!
Below, you can find my ETH comparison to the dotcom bubble recovery, my terminal shakeout analyses on ONT, NEO, and XLM, as well as my first IOTA chart, speculating about a possible alt cycle.
-Victor Cobra
评论:
Great to see altcoins moving up together (finally). This is what I've been wanting to see for quite a while, in terms of market strength.
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Man, my titles have just been screwy today. Hate to get all semantic on TradingView, but I should’ve written it as “IOTA Comes At My Beck And Call.” But I guess IOTA can beckon us to trade it ; )
评论:
So it seems that many alts have failed to sustain their rallies from yesterday - I said a retest of some of these recent lows was possible before a move up.
HOWEVER, as also mentioned above, it is still possible that we could see a market-wide wipeout if altcoins break below their long term trend. Now is the time to be careful. If IOTA can bounce back up soon, it will be a good sign...but if it breaks back below 5000 decisively, we can also use IOTA as a bellwether for further altcoin gloom.
HOWEVER, as also mentioned above, it is still possible that we could see a market-wide wipeout if altcoins break below their long term trend. Now is the time to be careful. If IOTA can bounce back up soon, it will be a good sign...but if it breaks back below 5000 decisively, we can also use IOTA as a bellwether for further altcoin gloom.
评论:
As I expected since yesterday, we've continued to slide lower on the ratio while Bitcoin remains strong. This means altcoin values are still looking alright against the USD. Will buyers step in for IOTA between 4800 and 5200?
评论:
We've headed down to the 4800-5000 support area, so here would be one of the better places to look for an entry, assuming the recent bounce was the beginning of a reversal. This area has the best Risk/Reward, since we're decently close to the bottom support, and the potential upside from here is pretty enormous. Guess we'll see what happens. Not ruling out another wick to the 4700 area or thereabouts, but probably a good place to start laddering in buys. I'm even considering doing some myself...but too hesitant to trade any of my ETH at the moment.
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This idea is currently invalidated, as we've dropped below the previous support. Looking very bad for the market, indeed.
评论:
Well well well! Looks like we’ve found some strong demand and IOTA is back above the support. This might be a great opportunity for a long trade. The bullish view is back in play. Goes to show you how crazy this market is. Will be posting a new analysis soon.
