HEADER - This is the theoretical favorite for next 24 hours.
SUMMARY - There can only be so much "delay". This because too much delay equals trend change. So SHORT TERM BEAR thesis has 24 hours to prove it.
DETAILS - See previous draft for background.
NOTES 1 - It pretty has to hit perfect, perfect, so I am ready to be wrong with this one.
a) so on the way down, there are certain places that regressions line up for a move down
b) but the counter trend support are really impossible to forecast right unless you are watching 15sec and 30sec bars all of the time
c) but if there are too many of these things, the trend change with it
d) hence there's only one window left for bears to prove something this week and this is it
e) if there's hesitation, punishment tends to follow meaning that...
f) in perfect spots for one direction move, if IT DOES NOT MOVE THAT WAY...
g) for whatever reasons, it moves THE OPPOSITE STRONGLY AFTERWARDS
h) it's like a tug of war, where YOU GET PUNISHED FOR HESITATION
SUMMARY - There can only be so much "delay". This because too much delay equals trend change. So SHORT TERM BEAR thesis has 24 hours to prove it.
DETAILS - See previous draft for background.
NOTES 1 - It pretty has to hit perfect, perfect, so I am ready to be wrong with this one.
a) so on the way down, there are certain places that regressions line up for a move down
b) but the counter trend support are really impossible to forecast right unless you are watching 15sec and 30sec bars all of the time
c) but if there are too many of these things, the trend change with it
d) hence there's only one window left for bears to prove something this week and this is it
e) if there's hesitation, punishment tends to follow meaning that...
f) in perfect spots for one direction move, if IT DOES NOT MOVE THAT WAY...
g) for whatever reasons, it moves THE OPPOSITE STRONGLY AFTERWARDS
h) it's like a tug of war, where YOU GET PUNISHED FOR HESITATION
评论:
8:45 AM ET BULLISH BIAS TOO STRONG
a) past 1983 and holding at 1990 as I type
b) so the bullish bias really is strangely strong
c) I don't have time to deal with this
d) SO THIS POST HAS ENDED
e) I don't have a plan right now
a) past 1983 and holding at 1990 as I type
b) so the bullish bias really is strangely strong
c) I don't have time to deal with this
d) SO THIS POST HAS ENDED
e) I don't have a plan right now
评论:
THIS IS EARLY, BUT HERE IS MAY FORECAST:
评论:
7:10 AM ET 04/20
THIS IS IMMEDIATE, BUT HERE IS 36-HOUR BREAK OUT FORECAST:
a) for chart above:
b) first things first, so we will deal with breakout setup first
THIS IS IMMEDIATE, BUT HERE IS 36-HOUR BREAK OUT FORECAST:
b) first things first, so we will deal with breakout setup first
1) looks like stalling here for now
2) maybe bounce +10 to 1980
3) next 4 hour floor is 1955
4) in theory it should get there (by noon)
5) the next 36 hour floor is 1922 ish right now