HEADER - My intuition is not good. But I know when a break down looks like a break down.
SUMMARY - The only thing reliable I have at this moment is we should hit 1940s in 18-24 hours.
DETAILS - Will post when I know more if I ever do. Again, the double reversal odds are real, so if you are shorting, choose stops carefully.
SUMMARY - The only thing reliable I have at this moment is we should hit 1940s in 18-24 hours.
DETAILS - Will post when I know more if I ever do. Again, the double reversal odds are real, so if you are shorting, choose stops carefully.
评论:
NOTES 2 - DRAFT 2 IN THE WORKS.
a) after running line by line, this move should stretch sideways more
b) so first a bounce to 2025 by 8AM ET MONDAY
c) then a move to 1953 by WED NY CLOSE
d) the tail move to 1910 is more complicated
e) will post more when I can
a) after running line by line, this move should stretch sideways more
b) so first a bounce to 2025 by 8AM ET MONDAY
c) then a move to 1953 by WED NY CLOSE
d) the tail move to 1910 is more complicated
e) will post more when I can
评论:
NOTE 3 - MORE MINOR CHANGES
1) so basically we are going down
2) questions are when, how fast, and how deep
3) after more reviews of wave order, this is what I see:
4) first, we may go to 1980s first OR NOT
5) after that we head for 2008-2020 zone
6) if we go to 1980s first, then 2008-2012 is the likely bounce
7) it we don't then, 2014-2017 is the likely bounce
8) this should take us to MONDAY morning around 8-9AM ET or NY OPEN
9) after that we head for 1936 BY TUESDAY NIGHT
10) if we stay above 2020 for more than 4 hours, THEN WAIT IT OUT
11) if we stay right at 2000+/- 5 for 48 hours, then regressions project instant crash to 1910 that may only take 4 hours
1) so basically we are going down
2) questions are when, how fast, and how deep
3) after more reviews of wave order, this is what I see:
4) first, we may go to 1980s first OR NOT
5) after that we head for 2008-2020 zone
6) if we go to 1980s first, then 2008-2012 is the likely bounce
7) it we don't then, 2014-2017 is the likely bounce
8) this should take us to MONDAY morning around 8-9AM ET or NY OPEN
9) after that we head for 1936 BY TUESDAY NIGHT
10) if we stay above 2020 for more than 4 hours, THEN WAIT IT OUT
11) if we stay right at 2000+/- 5 for 48 hours, then regressions project instant crash to 1910 that may only take 4 hours
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12) if I have time I will post what that looks like as DRAFT 2
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SO HERE IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW:
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a) for chart above:
b) I am not posting it yet bc of unfinished detailing
c) but generally, Tuesday should give us 1936 or less
b) I am not posting it yet bc of unfinished detailing
c) but generally, Tuesday should give us 1936 or less
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d) how that was derived:
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MEANWHILE, IN THE LONG TERM:
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a) for chart above:
b) if you replay this chart from November 10th, 2022...
c) even if we somehow make it down to 1870...
d) we would still be on time for NEW ALL TIME HIGH 5/20-6/20
e) this set of curves is now much more difficult - but not impossible, just not probable or very unlikely - to change now because...
f) we are already ahead of schedule
b) if you replay this chart from November 10th, 2022...
c) even if we somehow make it down to 1870...
d) we would still be on time for NEW ALL TIME HIGH 5/20-6/20
e) this set of curves is now much more difficult - but not impossible, just not probable or very unlikely - to change now because...
f) we are already ahead of schedule
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g) HOWEVER, IF WERE TO MAKE IT TO 1870 BY 4/26
h) the curves have to be reviewed for long term changes
i) as always, we will cross that bridge if and when
h) the curves have to be reviewed for long term changes
i) as always, we will cross that bridge if and when
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j) again, I am intending to publish DRAFT 2 tomorrow morning unless I am out of time
k) have a good night
k) have a good night
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8:09 AM ET MONDAY 4/17 2009.XX from 2014.xx overnight
1) no change of plans
2) just don't have time to post DRAFT 2
3) if moving higher ceiling is 2017-2020
4) otherwise, sideways to down to TUESDAY MORNING
4) then STRAIGHT DOWN TO 1936
1) no change of plans
2) just don't have time to post DRAFT 2
3) if moving higher ceiling is 2017-2020
4) otherwise, sideways to down to TUESDAY MORNING
4) then STRAIGHT DOWN TO 1936
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10 AM MONDAY FROM MY CAR:
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1) for chart above:
2) had a few min and that's most updated route right now
3) all signs pointing to 1933 TUESDAY NIGHT
2) had a few min and that's most updated route right now
3) all signs pointing to 1933 TUESDAY NIGHT
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4) there's should be some zig zag
5) short any decent bounce is the strategy here
6) that's all I have time for
5) short any decent bounce is the strategy here
6) that's all I have time for
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MONDAY 3 PM ET
1) bounce 1980 to 1996 changes nothing
2) it's earlier than I thought 5 hours ago but it's
3) LATER than I thought Sunday night
1) bounce 1980 to 1996 changes nothing
2) it's earlier than I thought 5 hours ago but it's
3) LATER than I thought Sunday night
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4) continuing price action is sideways to down
5) and then Tuesday straight down to 1933
6) maybe a tad lower
5) and then Tuesday straight down to 1933
6) maybe a tad lower
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4/18 10:56 AM ET TUESDAY
a) for chart above
b) this move above this trend line is holding on 1-min chart
c) the longer it holds, the worse odds are of a move straight down
d) so I really don't know what of this
b) this move above this trend line is holding on 1-min chart
c) the longer it holds, the worse odds are of a move straight down
d) so I really don't know what of this
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e) my regression has said this is where it goes straight down
f) but it stopped at 1991 and reversed all the way up to 2011
g) and its now at 2009.xx as I type it only has a small window to do "double reversal"
h) because once the spike "holds" for a while the trend change
i) SO WHAT NOW?
j) if it reverses down under 2000 again, it SHOULD get crushed to 1940s today
k) but it also needs to do this quickly or the setup changes
l) but after reviewing all the angles and ratios
m) I don't know WHAT IT WOULD CHANGE INTO
n) the only that makes sense is zig and zag around 2000 for days before anything happens
o) to sum it up, as it stands...
p) the current setup still favor bearish move down but it has maybe 12 hours to finish the move down if it moves
f) but it stopped at 1991 and reversed all the way up to 2011
g) and its now at 2009.xx as I type it only has a small window to do "double reversal"
h) because once the spike "holds" for a while the trend change
i) SO WHAT NOW?
j) if it reverses down under 2000 again, it SHOULD get crushed to 1940s today
k) but it also needs to do this quickly or the setup changes
l) but after reviewing all the angles and ratios
m) I don't know WHAT IT WOULD CHANGE INTO
n) the only that makes sense is zig and zag around 2000 for days before anything happens
o) to sum it up, as it stands...
p) the current setup still favor bearish move down but it has maybe 12 hours to finish the move down if it moves
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SO DRAFT 1 IS DONE. HERE IS DRAFT 2:
相关观点
a) it's hard to see lower for now
b) if it were to go lower, it would take some time
c) in weeks