IU Gap Fill StrategyThe IU Gap Fill Strategy is designed to capitalize on price gaps that occur between trading sessions. It identifies gaps based on a user-defined percentage threshold and executes trades when the price fills the gap within a day. This strategy is ideal for traders looking to take advantage of market inefficiencies that arise due to overnight or session-based price movements. An ATR-based trailing stop-loss is incorporated to dynamically manage risk and lock in profits.
USER INPUTS
Percentage Difference for Valid Gap - Defines the minimum gap size in percentage terms for a valid trade setup. ( Default is 0.2 )
ATR Length - Sets the lookback period for the Average True Range (ATR) calculation. (default is 14 )
ATR Factor - Determines the multiplier for the trailing stop-loss, helping in risk management. ( Default is 2.00 )
LONG CONDITION
A gap-up occurs, meaning the current session opens above the previous session’s close.
The price initially dips below the previous session's close but then recovers and closes above it.
The gap meets the valid percentage threshold set by the user.
The bar is not the first or last bar of the session to avoid false signals.
SHORT CONDITION
A gap-down occurs, meaning the current session opens below the previous session’s close.
The price initially moves above the previous session’s close but then closes below it.
The gap meets the valid percentage threshold set by the user.
The bar is not the first or last bar of the session to avoid false signals.
LONG EXIT
An ATR-based trailing stop-loss is set below the entry price and dynamically adjusts upwards as the price moves in favor of the trade.
The position is closed when the trailing stop-loss is hit.
SHORT EXIT
An ATR-based trailing stop-loss is set above the entry price and dynamically adjusts downwards as the price moves in favor of the trade.
The position is closed when the trailing stop-loss is hit.
WHY IT IS UNIQUE
Precision in Identifying Gaps - The strategy focuses on real price gaps rather than minor fluctuations.
Dynamic Risk Management - Uses ATR-based trailing stop-loss to secure profits while allowing the trade to run.
Versatility - Works on stocks, indices, forex, and any market that experiences session-based gaps.
Optimized Entry Conditions - Ensures entries are taken only when the price attempts to fill the gap, reducing false signals.
HOW USERS CAN BENEFIT FROM IT
Enhance Trade Timing - Captures high-probability trade setups based on market inefficiencies caused by gaps.
Minimize Risk - The ATR trailing stop-loss helps protect gains and limit losses.
Works in Different Market Conditions - Whether markets are trending or consolidating, the strategy adapts to potential gap fill opportunities.
Fully Customizable - Users can fine-tune gap percentage, ATR settings, and stop-loss parameters to match their trading style.
波动率
Combined BB & New SuperTrend StrategyExplanation
Bollinger Bands Section:
A customizable moving average (with multiple options) calculates the basis, upper, and lower bands. These are plotted on the chart with a filled area between them.
New SuperTrend Section:
The new SuperTrend code is integrated after renaming its variables (prefixed with st_) to avoid conflicts. This section calculates ATR-based stop levels, determines the trend direction, and generates buy/sell signals when the trend reverses. Optional labels and visual fills are also provided.
Trading Logic:
When a bullish SuperTrend signal occurs (transition from bearish to bullish), the script closes any short position and enters a long position. Conversely, when a bearish signal occurs, it closes the long position and enters a short. Additionally, if the price touches the Bollinger Bands (upper for longs, lower for shorts), the respective positions are exited.
This combined script should now compile without errors and use your new SuperTrend indicator for trade signals while retaining the Bollinger Bands exit conditions. Let me know if you need further modifications or explanations!
Dual SuperTrend w VIX Filter - Strategy [presentTrading]Hey everyone! Haven't been here for a long time. Been so busy again in the past 2 months. I recently started working on analyzing the combination of trend strategy and VIX, but didn't get outstanding results after a few tries. Sharing this tool with all of you in case you have better insights.
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The Dual SuperTrend with VIX Filter Strategy combines traditional trend following with market volatility analysis. Unlike conventional SuperTrend strategies that focus solely on price action, this experimental system incorporates VIX (Volatility Index) as an adaptive filter to create a more context-aware trading approach. By analyzing where current volatility stands relative to historical norms, the strategy adjusts to different market environments rather than applying uniform logic across all conditions.
BTCUSD 6hr Long Short Performance
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Dual SuperTrend Core
The strategy uses two SuperTrend indicators with different sensitivity settings:
- SuperTrend 1: Length = 13, Multiplier = 3.5
- SuperTrend 2: Length = 8, Multiplier = 5.0
The SuperTrend calculation follows this process:
1. ATR = Average of max(High-Low, |High-PreviousClose|, |Low-PreviousClose|) over 'length' periods
2. UpperBand = (High+Low)/2 - (Multiplier * ATR)
3. LowerBand = (High+Low)/2 + (Multiplier * ATR)
Trend direction is determined by:
- If Close > previous LowerBand, Trend = Bullish (1)
- If Close < previous UpperBand, Trend = Bearish (-1)
- Otherwise, Trend = previous Trend
🔶 VIX Analysis Framework
The core innovation lies in the VIX analysis system:
1. Statistical Analysis:
- VIX Mean = SMA(VIX, 252)
- VIX Standard Deviation = StdDev(VIX, 252)
- VIX Z-Score = (Current VIX - VIX Mean) / VIX StdDev
2. **Volatility Bands:
- Upper Band 1 = VIX Mean + (2 * VIX StdDev)
- Upper Band 2 = VIX Mean + (3 * VIX StdDev)
- Lower Band 1 = VIX Mean - (2 * VIX StdDev)
- Lower Band 2 = VIX Mean - (3 * VIX StdDev)
3. Volatility Regimes:
- "Very Low Volatility": VIX < Lower Band 1
- "Low Volatility": Lower Band 1 ≤ VIX < Mean
- "Normal Volatility": Mean ≤ VIX < Upper Band 1
- "High Volatility": Upper Band 1 ≤ VIX < Upper Band 2
- "Extreme Volatility": VIX ≥ Upper Band 2
4. VIX Trend Detection:
- VIX EMA = EMA(VIX, 10)
- VIX Rising = VIX > VIX EMA
- VIX Falling = VIX < VIX EMA
Local performance:
🔶 Entry Logic Integration
The strategy combines trend signals with volatility filtering:
Long Entry Condition:
- Both SuperTrend 1 AND SuperTrend 2 must be bullish (trend = 1)
- AND selected VIX filter condition must be satisfied
Short Entry Condition:
- Both SuperTrend 1 AND SuperTrend 2 must be bearish (trend = -1)
- AND selected VIX filter condition must be satisfied
Available VIX filter rules include:
- "Below Mean + SD": VIX < Lower Band 1
- "Below Mean": VIX < VIX Mean
- "Above Mean": VIX > VIX Mean
- "Above Mean + SD": VIX > Upper Band 1
- "Falling VIX": VIX < VIX EMA
- "Rising VIX": VIX > VIX EMA
- "Any": No VIX filtering
█ Trade Direction
The strategy allows testing in three modes:
1. **Long Only:** Test volatility effects on uptrends only
2. **Short Only:** Examine volatility's impact on downtrends only
3. **Both (Default):** Compare how volatility affects both trend directions
This enables comparative analysis of how volatility regimes impact bullish versus bearish markets differently.
█ Usage
Use this strategy as an experimental framework:
1. Form a hypothesis about how volatility affects trend reliability
2. Configure VIX filters to test your specific hypothesis
3. Analyze performance across different volatility regimes
4. Compare results between uptrends and downtrends
5. Refine your volatility filtering approach based on results
6. Share your findings with the trading community
This framework allows you to investigate questions like:
- Are uptrends more reliable during rising or falling volatility?
- Do downtrends perform better when volatility is above or below its historical average?
- Should different volatility filters be applied to long vs. short positions?
█ Default Settings
The default settings serve as a starting point for exploration:
SuperTrend Parameters:
- SuperTrend 1 (Length=13, Multiplier=3.5): More responsive to trend changes
- SuperTrend 2 (Length=8, Multiplier=5.0): More selective filter requiring stronger trends
VIX Analysis Settings:
- Lookback Period = 252: Establishes a full market cycle for volatility context
- Standard Deviation Bands = 2 and 3 SD: Creates statistically significant regime boundaries
- VIX Trend Period = 10: Balances responsiveness with noise reduction
Default VIX Filter Selection:
- Long Entry: "Above Mean" - Tests if uptrends perform better during above-average volatility
- Short Entry: "Rising VIX" - Tests if downtrends accelerate when volatility is increasing
Feel Free to share your insight below!!!
[3Commas] Turtle StrategyTurtle Strategy
🔷 What it does: This indicator implements a modernized version of the Turtle Trading Strategy, designed for trend-following and automated trading with webhook integration. It identifies breakout opportunities using Donchian channels, providing entry and exit signals.
Channel 1: Detects short-term breakouts using the highest highs and lowest lows over a set period (default 20).
Channel 2: Acts as a confirmation filter by applying an offset to the same period, reducing false signals.
Exit Channel: Functions as a dynamic stop-loss (wait for candle close), adjusting based on market structure (default 10 periods).
Additionally, traders can enable a fixed Take Profit level, ensuring a systematic approach to profit-taking.
🔷 Who is it for:
Trend Traders: Those looking to capture long-term market moves.
Bot Users: Traders seeking to automate entries and exits with bot integration.
Rule-Based Traders: Operators who prefer a structured, systematic trading approach.
🔷 How does it work: The strategy generates buy and sell signals using a dual-channel confirmation system.
Long Entry: A buy signal is generated when the close price crosses above the previous high of Channel 1 and is confirmed by Channel 2.
Short Entry: A sell signal occurs when the close price falls below the previous low of Channel 1, with confirmation from Channel 2.
Exit Management: The Exit Channel acts as a trailing stop, dynamically adjusting to price movements. To exit the trade, wait for a full bar close.
Optional Take Profit (%): Closes trades at a predefined %.
🔷 Why it’s unique:
Modern Adaptation: Updates the classic Turtle Trading Strategy, with the possibility of using a second channel with an offset to filter the signals.
Dynamic Risk Management: Utilizes a trailing Exit Channel to help protect gains as trades move favorably.
Bot Integration: Automates trade execution through direct JSON signal communication with your DCA Bots.
🔷 Considerations Before Using the Indicator:
Market & Timeframe: Best suited for trending markets; higher timeframes (e.g., H4, D1) are recommended to minimize noise.
Sideways Markets: In choppy conditions, breakouts may lead to false signals—consider using additional filters.
Backtesting & Demo Testing: It is crucial to thoroughly backtest the strategy and run it on a demo account before risking real capital.
Parameter Adjustments: Ensure that commissions, slippage, and position sizes are set accurately to reflect real trading conditions.
🔷 STRATEGY PROPERTIES
Symbol: BINANCE:ETHUSDT (Spot).
Timeframe: 4h.
Test Period: All historical data available.
Initial Capital: 10000 USDT.
Order Size per Trade: 1% of Capital, you can use a higher value e.g. 5%, be cautious that the Max Drawdown does not exceed 10%, as it would indicate a very risky trading approach.
Commission: Binance commission 0.1%, adjust according to the exchange being used, lower numbers will generate unrealistic results. By using low values e.g. 5%, it allows us to adapt over time and check the functioning of the strategy.
Slippage: 5 ticks, for pairs with low liquidity or very large orders, this number should be increased as the order may not be filled at the desired level.
Margin for Long and Short Positions: 100%.
Indicator Settings: Default Configuration.
Period Channel 1: 20.
Period Channel 2: 20.
Period Channel 2 Offset: 20.
Period Exit: 10.
Take Profit %: Disable.
Strategy: Long & Short.
🔷 STRATEGY RESULTS
⚠️Remember, past results do not guarantee future performance.
Net Profit: +516.87 USDT (+5.17%).
Max Drawdown: -100.28 USDT (-0.95%).
Total Closed Trades: 281.
Percent Profitable: 40.21%.
Profit Factor: 1.704.
Average Trade: +1.84 USDT (+1.80%).
Average # Bars in Trades: 29.
🔷 How to Use It:
🔸 Adjust Settings:
Select your asset and timeframe suited for trend trading.
Adjust the periods for Channel 1, Channel 2, and the Exit Channel to align with the asset’s historical behavior. You can visualize these channels by going to the Style tab and enabling them.
For example, if you set Channel 2 to 40 with an offset of 40, signals will take longer to appear but will aim for a more defined trend.
Experiment with different values, a possible exit configuration is using 20 as well. Compare the results and adjust accordingly.
Enable the Take Profit (%) option if needed.
🔸Results Review:
It is important to check the Max Drawdown. This value should ideally not exceed 10% of your capital. Consider adjusting the trade size to ensure this threshold is not surpassed.
Remember to include the correct values for commission and slippage according to the symbol and exchange where you are conducting the tests. Otherwise, the results will not be realistic.
If you are satisfied with the results, you may consider automating your trades. However, it is strongly recommended to use a small amount of capital or a demo account to test proper execution before committing real funds.
🔸Create alerts to trigger the DCA Bot:
Verify Messages: Ensure the message matches the one specified by the DCA Bot.
Multi-Pair Configuration: For multi-pair setups, enable the option to add the symbol in the correct format.
Signal Settings: Enable the option to receive long or short signals (Entry | TP | SL), copy and paste the messages for the DCA Bots configured.
Alert Setup:
When creating an alert, set the condition to the indicator and choose "alert() function call only".
Enter any desired Alert Name.
Open the Notifications tab, enable Webhook URL, and paste the Webhook URL.
For more details, refer to the section: "How to use TradingView Custom Signals".
Finalize Alerts: Click Create, you're done! Alerts will now be sent automatically in the correct format.
🔷 INDICATOR SETTINGS
Period Channel 1: Period of highs and lows to trigger signals
Period Channel 2: Period of highs and lows to filter signals
Offset: Move Channel 2 to the right x bars to try to filter out the favorable signals.
Period Exit: It is the period of the Donchian channel that is used as trailing for the exits.
Strategy: Order Type direction in which trades are executed.
Take Profit %: When activated, the entered value will be used as the Take Profit in percentage from the entry price level.
Use Custom Test Period: When enabled signals only works in the selected time window. If disabled it will use all historical data available on the chart.
Test Start and End: Once the Custom Test Period is enabled, here you select the start and end date that you want to analyze.
Check Messages: Check Messages: Enable this option to review the messages that will be sent to the bot.
Entry | TP | SL: Enable this options to send Buy Entry, Take Profit (TP), and Stop Loss (SL) signals.
Deal Entry and Deal Exit: Copy and paste the message for the deal start signal and close order at Market Price of the DCA Bot. This is the message that will be sent with the alert to the Bot, you must verify that it is the same as the bot so that it can process properly.
DCA Bot Multi-Pair: You must activate it if you want to use the signals in a DCA Bot Multi-pair in the text box you must enter (using the correct format) the symbol in which you are creating the alert, you can check the format of each symbol when you create the bot.
👨🏻💻💭 We hope this tool helps enhance your trading. Your feedback is invaluable, so feel free to share any suggestions for improvements or new features you'd like to see implemented.
__
The information and publications within the 3Commas TradingView account are not meant to be and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by 3Commas and any of the parties acting on behalf of 3Commas, including its employees, contractors, ambassadors, etc.
Enhanced BarUpDn StrategyEnhanced BarUpDn Strategy
The Enhanced BarUpDn Strategy is a refined price action-based trading approach that identifies market trends and reversals using bar formations. It focuses on detecting bullish and bearish momentum by analyzing consecutive price bars and key support/resistance levels.
Key Features:
✅ Trend Confirmation – Uses a combination of bar patterns and indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI) to confirm momentum shifts.
✅ Entry Signals – A buy signal is triggered when an "Up Bar" (higher high, higher low) follows a bullish setup; a sell signal when a "Down Bar" (lower high, lower low) confirms bearish momentum.
✅ Enhanced Filters – Incorporates volume analysis and additional conditions to reduce false signals.
✅ Stop-Loss & Risk Management – Uses recent swing highs/lows for stop placement and dynamic trailing stops for maximizing gains.
3 Red / 3 Green Strategy with Volatility CheckStrategy Name: 3 Red / 3 Green Strategy with Volatility Check by AlgoTradeKit
Overview
This long-only strategy is designed for daily bars on NASDAQ (or similar instruments) and combines simple price action with a volatility filter. It “tells it like it is” – enter when the market shows weakness, but only in sufficiently volatile conditions, and exit either on signs of a reversal or after a set number of days.
Entry Conditions
- Price Action :
Enter a long position when there are 3 consecutive red days (each day's close is below its open).
- Volatility Filter :
The entry is allowed only if the current ATR (Average True Range) calculated over the specified ATR Period (default 12) is greater than its 30-day simple moving average. This ensures the market has enough volatility to justify the trade.
Exit Conditions
- Reversal Signal :
Exit the long position when 3 consecutive green days occur (each day's close is above its open), signaling a potential reversal.
- Time Limit :
Regardless of market conditions, any open trade is closed if it reaches the Maximum Trade Duration (default 22 days). This helps limit exposure during stagnant or unfavorable market conditions.
- You can toggle the three-green-day exit if you want to isolate the time-based exit.
Input Parameters
- Maximum Trade Duration (days): Default is 22 days.
- ATR Period: Default is 12.
- Use 3 Green Days Exit: Toggle to enable or disable the three-green-day exit condition.
How It Works
1. Entry: The strategy monitors daily price action for 3 consecutive down days. When this occurs and if the market is volatile enough (current ATR > 30-day ATR average), it opens a long position.
2. Exit: The position is closed if the price action reverses with 3 consecutive up days or if the trade has been open for the maximum allowed duration - i.e. use it on daily chart.
Risk Management
- The built-in maximum trade duration prevents trades from lingering too long in a non-trending or consolidating market.
- The volatility filter helps ensure that trades are only taken when there is sufficient price movement, potentially increasing the odds of a meaningful move.
Disclaimer
This strategy is provided “as is” without any warranties. It is essential to backtest and validate the performance on your specific instrument and market conditions before deploying live capital. Trading involves significant risk, and you should adjust parameters to match your risk tolerance.
Test and tweak this strategy to see if it fits your trading style and market conditions. Happy trading!
Smart MA Crossover BacktesterSmart MA Crossover Backtester - Strategy Overview
Strategy Name: Smart MA Crossover Backtester
Published on: TradingView
Applicable Markets: Works well on crypto (tested profitably on ETH)
Strategy Concept
The Smart MA Crossover Backtester is an improved Moving Average (MA) crossover strategy that incorporates a trend filter and an ATR-based stop loss & take profit mechanism for better risk management. It aims to capture trends efficiently while reducing false signals by only trading in the direction of the long-term trend.
Core Components & Logic
Moving Averages (MA) for Entry Signals
Fast Moving Average (9-period SMA)
Slow Moving Average (21-period SMA)
A trade signal is generated when the fast MA crosses the slow MA.
Trend Filter (200-period SMA)
Only enters long positions if price is above the 200-period SMA (bullish trend).
Only enters short positions if price is below the 200-period SMA (bearish trend).
This helps in avoiding counter-trend trades, reducing whipsaws.
ATR-Based Stop Loss & Take Profit
Uses the Average True Range (ATR) with a multiplier of 2 to calculate stop loss.
Risk-Reward Ratio = 1:2 (Take profit is set at 2x ATR).
This ensures dynamic stop loss and take profit levels based on market volatility.
Trading Rules
✅ Long Entry (Buy Signal):
Fast MA (9) crosses above Slow MA (21)
Price is above the 200 MA (bullish trend filter active)
Stop Loss: Below entry price by 2× ATR
Take Profit: Above entry price by 4× ATR
✅ Short Entry (Sell Signal):
Fast MA (9) crosses below Slow MA (21)
Price is below the 200 MA (bearish trend filter active)
Stop Loss: Above entry price by 2× ATR
Take Profit: Below entry price by 4× ATR
Why This Strategy Works Well for Crypto (ETH)?
🔹 Crypto markets are highly volatile – ATR-based stop loss adapts dynamically to market conditions.
🔹 Long-term trend filter (200 MA) ensures trading in the dominant direction, reducing false signals.
🔹 Risk-reward ratio of 1:2 allows for profitable trades even with a lower win rate.
This strategy has been tested on Ethereum (ETH) and has shown profitable performance, making it a strong choice for crypto traders looking for trend-following setups with solid risk management. 🚀
Stochastic-Dynamic Volatility Band ModelThe Stochastic-Dynamic Volatility Band Model is a quantitative trading approach that leverages statistical principles to model market volatility and generate buy and sell signals. The strategy is grounded in the concepts of volatility estimation and dynamic market regimes, where the core idea is to capture price fluctuations through stochastic models and trade around volatility bands.
Volatility Estimation and Band Construction
The volatility bands are constructed using a combination of historical price data and statistical measures, primarily the standard deviation (σ) of price returns, which quantifies the degree of variation in price movements over a specific period. This methodology is based on the classical works of Black-Scholes (1973), which laid the foundation for using volatility as a core component in financial models. Volatility is a crucial determinant of asset pricing and risk, and it plays a pivotal role in this strategy's design.
Entry and Exit Conditions
The entry conditions are based on the price’s relationship with the volatility bands. A long entry is triggered when the price crosses above the lower volatility band, indicating that the market may have been oversold or is experiencing a reversal to the upside. Conversely, a short entry is triggered when the price crosses below the upper volatility band, suggesting overbought conditions or a potential market downturn.
These entry signals are consistent with the mean reversion theory, which asserts that asset prices tend to revert to their long-term average after deviating from it. According to Poterba and Summers (1988), mean reversion occurs due to overreaction to news or temporary disturbances, leading to price corrections.
The exit condition is based on the number of bars that have elapsed since the entry signal. Specifically, positions are closed after a predefined number of bars, typically set to seven bars, reflecting a short-term trading horizon. This exit mechanism is in line with short-term momentum trading strategies discussed in literature, where traders capitalize on price movements within specific timeframes (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
Market Adaptability
One of the key features of this strategy is its dynamic nature, as it adapts to the changing volatility environment. The volatility bands automatically adjust to market conditions, expanding in periods of high volatility and contracting when volatility decreases. This dynamic adjustment helps the strategy remain robust across different market regimes, as it is capable of identifying both trend-following and mean-reverting opportunities.
This dynamic adaptability is supported by the adaptive market hypothesis (Lo, 2004), which posits that market participants evolve their strategies in response to changing market conditions, akin to the adaptive nature of biological systems.
References:
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
Bollinger, J. (1980). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. Wiley.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Lo, A. W. (2004). The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Market Efficiency from an Evolutionary Perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 30(5), 15-29.
Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 27-59.
Volatility Arbitrage Spread Oscillator Model (VASOM)The Volatility Arbitrage Spread Oscillator Model (VASOM) is a systematic approach to capitalizing on price inefficiencies in the VIX futures term structure. By analyzing the differential between front-month and second-month VIX futures contracts, we employ a momentum-based oscillator (Relative Strength Index, RSI) to signal potential market reversion opportunities. Our research builds upon existing financial literature on volatility risk premia and contango/backwardation dynamics in the volatility markets (Zhang & Zhu, 2006; Alexander & Korovilas, 2012).
Volatility derivatives have become essential tools for managing risk and engaging in speculative trades (Whaley, 2009). The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility derived from S&P 500 option prices (CBOE, 2018). Term structures in VIX futures often exhibit contango or backwardation, depending on macroeconomic and market conditions (Alexander & Korovilas, 2012).
This strategy seeks to exploit the spread between the front-month and second-month VIX futures as a proxy for term structure dynamics. The spread’s momentum, quantified by the RSI, serves as a signal for entry and exit points, aligning with empirical findings on mean reversion in volatility markets (Zhang & Zhu, 2006).
• Entry Signal: When RSI_t falls below the user-defined threshold (e.g., 30), indicating a potential undervaluation in the spread.
• Exit Signal: When RSI_t exceeds a threshold (e.g., 70), suggesting mean reversion has occurred.
Empirical Justification
The strategy aligns with findings that suggest predictable patterns in volatility futures spreads (Alexander & Korovilas, 2012). Furthermore, the use of RSI leverages insights from momentum-based trading models, which have demonstrated efficacy in various asset classes, including commodities and derivatives (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
References
• Alexander, C., & Korovilas, D. (2012). The Hazards of Volatility Investing. Journal of Alternative Investments, 15(2), 92-104.
• CBOE. (2018). The VIX White Paper. Chicago Board Options Exchange.
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
• Zhang, C., & Zhu, Y. (2006). Exploiting Predictability in Volatility Futures Spreads. Financial Analysts Journal, 62(6), 62-72.
• Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual EditionOverview:
The Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual Edition is designed to capture potential reversal moves at price extremes—often termed “bounce points”—by using a combination of technical indicators. The strategy integrates Bollinger Bands, MACD, and volume analysis, and it provides rich on‑chart visual cues to help traders understand its signals and conditions. Additionally, the strategy enforces a maximum of 5 trades per day and uses fixed risk management parameters. This publication is intended for educational purposes and offers a systematic, transparent approach that you can further adjust to fit your market or risk profile.
How It Works:
Bollinger Bands:
A 20‑period simple moving average (SMA) and a user‑defined standard deviation multiplier (default 2.0) are used to calculate the Bollinger Bands.
When the price reaches or crosses these bands (i.e. falls below the lower band or rises above the upper band), it suggests that the price is in an extreme, potentially oversold or overbought, state.
MACD Filter:
The MACD (calculated with standard lengths, e.g. 12, 26, 9) provides momentum information.
For a bullish (long) signal, the MACD line should be above its signal line; for a bearish (short) signal, the MACD line should be below.
Volume Confirmation:
The strategy uses a 20‑period volume moving average to determine if current volume is strong enough to validate a signal.
A signal is confirmed only if the current volume is at or above a specified multiple (by default, 1.0×) of this moving average, ensuring that the move is supported by increased market participation.
Visual Cues:
Bollinger Bands and Fill: The basis (SMA), upper, and lower Bollinger Bands are plotted, and the area between the upper and lower bands is filled with a semi‑transparent color.
Signal Markers: When a long or short signal is generated, corresponding markers (labels) appear on the chart.
Background Coloring: The chart’s background changes color (green for long signals and red for short signals) on the bars where signals occur.
Information Table: An on‑chart table displays key indicator values (MACD, signal line, volume, average volume) and the number of trades executed that day.
Entry Conditions:
Long Entry:
A long trade is triggered when the previous bar’s close is below the lower Bollinger Band and the current bar’s close crosses above it, combined with a bullish MACD condition and strong volume.
Short Entry:
A short trade is triggered when the previous bar’s close is above the upper Bollinger Band and the current bar’s close crosses below it, with a bearish MACD condition and high volume.
Risk Management:
Daily Trade Limit: The strategy restricts trading to no more than 5 trades per day.
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit:
For each position, a stop loss is set at a fixed percentage away from the entry price (typically 2%), and a take profit is set to target a 1:2 risk-reward ratio (typically 4% from the entry price).
Backtesting Setup:
Initial Capital: $10,000
Commission: 0.1% per trade
Slippage: 1 tick per bar
These realistic parameters help ensure that backtesting results reflect the conditions of an average trader.
Disclaimer:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This strategy is experimental and provided solely for educational purposes. It is essential to backtest extensively and paper trade before any live deployment. All risk management practices are advisory, and you should adjust parameters to suit your own trading style and risk tolerance.
Conclusion:
By combining Bollinger Bands, MACD, and volume analysis, the Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual Edition provides a clear, systematic method to identify potential reversal opportunities at price extremes. The added visual cues help traders quickly interpret signals and assess market conditions, while strict risk management and a daily trade cap help keep trading disciplined. Adjust and refine the settings as needed to better suit your specific market and risk profile.
Bollinger Bands Long Strategy
This strategy is designed for identifying and executing long trades based on Bollinger Bands and RSI. It aims to capitalize on potential oversold conditions and subsequent price recovery.
Key Features:
- Bollinger Bands (10,2): The strategy uses Bollinger Bands with a 10-period moving average and a multiplier of 2 to define price volatility.
- RSI Filter: A trade is only triggered when the RSI (14-period) is below 30, ensuring entry during oversold conditions.
- Entry Condition: A long trade is entered immediately when the price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI is under 30.
- Exit Condition: The position is exited when the price reaches or crosses above the Bollinger Band basis (20-period moving average).
Best Used For:
- Identifying oversold conditions with a strong potential for a rebound.
- Markets or assets with clear oscillations and volatility e.g., BTC.
**Disclaimer:** This strategy is for educational purposes and should be used with caution. Backtesting and risk management are essential before live trading.
GOLD Volume-Based Entry StrategyShort Description:
This script identifies potential long entries by detecting two consecutive bars with above-average volume and bullish price action. When these conditions are met, a trade is entered, and an optional profit target is set based on user input. This strategy can help highlight momentum-driven breakouts or trend continuations triggered by a surge in buying volume.
How It Works
Volume Moving Average
A simple moving average of volume (vol_ma) is calculated over a user-defined period (default: 20 bars). This helps us distinguish when volume is above or below recent averages.
Consecutive Green Volume Bars
First bar: Must be bullish (close > open) and have volume above the volume MA.
Second bar: Must also be bullish, with volume above the volume MA and higher than the first bar’s volume.
When these two bars appear in sequence, we interpret it as strong buying pressure that could drive price higher.
Entry & Profit Target
Upon detecting these two consecutive bullish bars, the script places a long entry.
A profit target is set at current price plus a user-defined fixed amount (default: 5 USD).
You can adjust this target, or you can add a stop-loss in the script to manage risk further.
Visual Cues
Buy Signal Marker appears on the chart when the second bar confirms the signal.
Green Volume Columns highlight the bars that fulfill the criteria, providing a quick visual confirmation of high-volume bullish bars.
Works fine on 1M-2M-5M-15M-30M. Do not use it on higher TF. Due the lack of historical data on lower TF, the backtest result is limited.
High-Low Breakout Strategy with ATR traling Stop LossThis script is a TradingView Pine Script strategy that implements a High-Low Breakout Strategy with ATR Trailing Stop.created by SK WEALTH GURU, Here’s a breakdown of its key components:
Features and Functionality
Custom Timeframe and High-Low Detection
Allows users to select a custom timeframe (default: 30 minutes) to detect high and low levels.
Tracks the high and low within a user-specified period (e.g., first 30 minutes of the session).
Draws horizontal lines for high and low, persisting for a specified number of days.
Trade Entry Conditions
Long Entry: If the closing price crosses above the recorded high.
Short Entry: If the closing price crosses below the recorded low.
The user can choose to trade Long, Short, or Both.
ATR-Based Trailing Stop & Risk Management
Uses Average True Range (ATR) with a multiplier (default: 3.5) to determine a dynamic trailing stop-loss.
Trades reset daily, ensuring a fresh start each day.
Trade Execution and Partial Profit Taking
Stop-loss: Default at 1% of entry price.
Partial profit: Books 50% of the position at 3% profit.
Max 2 trades per day: If the first trade hits stop-loss, the strategy allows one re-entry.
Intraday Exit Condition
All positions close at 3:15 PM to ensure no overnight risk.
IU Range Trading StrategyIU Range Trading Strategy
The IU Range Trading Strategy is designed to identify range-bound markets and take trades based on defined price ranges. This strategy uses a combination of price ranges and ATR (Average True Range) to filter entry conditions and incorporates a trailing stop-loss mechanism for better trade management.
User Inputs:
- Range Length: Defines the number of bars to calculate the highest and lowest price range (default: 10).
- ATR Length: Sets the length of the ATR calculation (default: 14).
- ATR Stop-Loss Factor: Determines the multiplier for the ATR-based stop-loss (default: 2.00).
Entry Conditions:
1. A range is identified when the difference between the highest and lowest prices over the selected range is less than or equal to 1.75 times the ATR.
2. Once a valid range is formed:
- A long trade is triggered at the range high.
- A short trade is triggered at the range low.
Exit Conditions:
1. Trailing Stop-Loss:
- The stop-loss adjusts dynamically using ATR targets.
- The strategy locks in profits as the trade moves in your favor.
2. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are visually plotted for transparency and easier decision-making.
Features:
- Automated box creation to visualize the trading range.
- Supports one position at a time, canceling opposite-side entries.
- ATR-based trailing stop-loss for effective risk management.
- Clear visual representation of stop-loss and take-profit levels with colored bands.
This strategy works best in markets with defined ranges and can help traders identify breakout opportunities when the price exits the range.
Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM)The Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM) is a systematic trading approach grounded in momentum and volatility analysis, designed to exploit behavioral inefficiencies in the equity markets. It focuses on the NYSE Down Ticks, a metric reflecting the cumulative number of stocks trading at a lower price than their previous trade. As a proxy for market sentiment and selling pressure, this indicator is particularly useful in identifying shifts in investor behavior during periods of heightened uncertainty or volatility (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
Theoretical Basis
The DTOM builds on established principles of momentum and mean reversion in financial markets. Momentum strategies, which seek to capitalize on the persistence of price trends, have been shown to deliver significant returns in various asset classes (Carhart, 1997). However, these strategies are also susceptible to periods of drawdown due to sudden reversals. By incorporating volatility as a dynamic component, DTOM adapts to changing market conditions, addressing one of the primary challenges of traditional momentum models (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Sentiment and Volatility as Core Drivers
The NYSE Down Ticks serve as a proxy for short-term negative sentiment. Sudden increases in Down Ticks often signal panic-driven selling, creating potential opportunities for mean reversion. Behavioral finance studies suggest that investor overreaction to negative news can lead to temporary mispricings, which systematic strategies can exploit (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By incorporating a rate-of-change (ROC) oscillator into the model, DTOM tracks the momentum of Down Ticks over a specified lookback period, identifying periods of extreme sentiment.
In addition, the strategy dynamically adjusts entry and exit thresholds based on recent volatility. Research indicates that incorporating volatility into momentum strategies can enhance risk-adjusted returns by improving adaptability to market conditions (Moskowitz, Ooi, & Pedersen, 2012). DTOM uses standard deviations of the ROC as a measure of volatility, allowing thresholds to contract during calm markets and expand during turbulent ones. This approach helps mitigate false signals and aligns with findings that volatility scaling can improve strategy robustness (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Practical Implications
The DTOM framework is particularly well-suited for systematic traders seeking to exploit behavioral inefficiencies while maintaining adaptability to varying market environments. By leveraging sentiment metrics such as the NYSE Down Ticks and combining them with a volatility-adjusted momentum oscillator, the strategy addresses key limitations of traditional trend-following models, such as their lagging nature and susceptibility to reversals in volatile conditions.
References
• Barroso, P., & Santa-Clara, P. (2015). Momentum Has Its Moments. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 111–120.
• Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57–82.
• De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805.
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
• Moskowitz, T. J., Ooi, Y. H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228–250.
Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi StrategySunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy
The Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy is a trend-following trading strategy that combines Bollinger Bands with Heikin-Ashi candles for precise market entries and exits. It aims to capitalize on price volatility while ensuring controlled risk through dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels based on a user-defined Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR).
Key Features:
Trading Window:
The strategy operates within a user-defined time window (e.g., from 09:20 to 15:00) to align with market hours or other preferred trading sessions.
Trade Direction:
Users can select between Long Only, Short Only, or Long/Short trade directions, allowing flexibility depending on market conditions.
Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands are used to identify potential breakout or breakdown zones. The strategy enters trades when price breaks through the upper or lower Bollinger Band, indicating a possible trend continuation.
Heikin-Ashi Candles:
Heikin-Ashi candles help smooth price action and filter out market noise. The strategy uses these candles to confirm trend direction and improve entry accuracy.
Risk Management (Risk-to-Reward Ratio):
The strategy automatically adjusts the take-profit (TP) level and stop-loss (SL) based on the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR). This ensures that trades are risk-managed effectively.
Automated Alerts and Webhooks:
The strategy includes automated alerts for trade entries and exits. Users can set up JSON webhooks for external execution or trading automation.
Active Position Tracking:
The strategy tracks whether there is an active position (long or short) and only exits when price hits the pre-defined SL or TP levels.
Exit Conditions:
The strategy exits positions when either the take-profit (TP) or stop-loss (SL) levels are hit, ensuring risk management is adhered to.
Default Settings:
Trading Window:
09:20-15:00
This setting confines the strategy to the specified hours, ensuring trading only occurs during active market hours.
Strategy Direction:
Default: Long/Short
This allows for both long and short trades depending on market conditions. You can select "Long Only" or "Short Only" if you prefer to trade in one direction.
Bollinger Band Length (bbLength):
Default: 19
Length of the moving average used to calculate the Bollinger Bands.
Bollinger Band Multiplier (bbMultiplier):
Default: 2.0
Multiplier used to calculate the upper and lower bands. A higher multiplier increases the width of the bands, leading to fewer but more significant trades.
Take Profit Multiplier (tpMultiplier):
Default: 2.0
Multiplier used to determine the take-profit level based on the calculated stop-loss. This ensures that the profit target aligns with the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Default: 1.0
The ratio used to calculate the take-profit relative to the stop-loss. A higher RRR means larger profit targets.
Trade Automation (JSON Webhooks):
Allows for integration with external systems for automated execution:
Long Entry JSON: Customizable entry condition for long positions.
Long Exit JSON: Customizable exit condition for long positions.
Short Entry JSON: Customizable entry condition for short positions.
Short Exit JSON: Customizable exit condition for short positions.
Entry Logic:
Long Entry:
The strategy enters a long position when:
The Heikin-Ashi candle shows a bullish trend (green close > open).
The price is above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling a breakout.
The previous candle also closed higher than it opened.
Short Entry:
The strategy enters a short position when:
The Heikin-Ashi candle shows a bearish trend (red close < open).
The price is below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a breakdown.
The previous candle also closed lower than it opened.
Exit Logic:
Take-Profit (TP):
The take-profit level is calculated as a multiple of the distance between the entry price and the stop-loss level, determined by the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR).
Stop-Loss (SL):
The stop-loss is placed at the opposite Bollinger Band level (lower for long positions, upper for short positions).
Exit Trigger:
The strategy exits a trade when either the take-profit or stop-loss level is hit.
Plotting and Visuals:
The Heikin-Ashi candles are displayed on the chart, with green candles for uptrends and red candles for downtrends.
Bollinger Bands (upper, lower, and basis) are plotted for visual reference.
Entry points for long and short trades are marked with green and red labels below and above bars, respectively.
Strategy Alerts:
Alerts are triggered when:
A long entry condition is met.
A short entry condition is met.
A trade exits (either via take-profit or stop-loss).
These alerts can be used to trigger notifications or webhook events for automated trading systems.
Notes:
The strategy is designed for use on intraday charts but can be applied to any timeframe.
It is highly customizable, allowing for tailored risk management and trading windows.
The Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy combines two powerful technical analysis tools (Bollinger Bands and Heikin-Ashi candles) with strong risk management, making it suitable for both beginners and experienced traders.
Feebacks are welcome from the users.
Dynamic Volatility Differential Model (DVDM)The Dynamic Volatility Differential Model (DVDM) is a quantitative trading strategy designed to exploit the spread between implied volatility (IV) and historical (realized) volatility (HV). This strategy identifies trading opportunities by dynamically adjusting thresholds based on the standard deviation of the volatility spread. The DVDM is versatile and applicable across various markets, including equity indices, commodities, and derivatives such as the FDAX (DAX Futures).
Key Components of the DVDM:
1. Implied Volatility (IV):
The IV is derived from options markets and reflects the market’s expectation of future price volatility. For instance, the strategy uses volatility indices such as the VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq 100), or RVX (Russell 2000), depending on the target market. These indices serve as proxies for market sentiment and risk perception (Whaley, 2000).
2. Historical Volatility (HV):
The HV is computed from the log returns of the underlying asset’s price. It represents the actual volatility observed in the market over a defined lookback period, adjusted to annualized levels using a multiplier of \sqrt{252} for daily data (Hull, 2012).
3. Volatility Spread:
The difference between IV and HV forms the volatility spread, which is a measure of divergence between market expectations and actual market behavior.
4. Dynamic Thresholds:
Unlike static thresholds, the DVDM employs dynamic thresholds derived from the standard deviation of the volatility spread. The thresholds are scaled by a user-defined multiplier, ensuring adaptability to market conditions and volatility regimes (Christoffersen & Jacobs, 2004).
Trading Logic:
1. Long Entry:
A long position is initiated when the volatility spread exceeds the upper dynamic threshold, signaling that implied volatility is significantly higher than realized volatility. This condition suggests potential mean reversion, as markets may correct inflated risk premiums.
2. Short Entry:
A short position is initiated when the volatility spread falls below the lower dynamic threshold, indicating that implied volatility is significantly undervalued relative to realized volatility. This signals the possibility of increased market uncertainty.
3. Exit Conditions:
Positions are closed when the volatility spread crosses the zero line, signifying a normalization of the divergence.
Advantages of the DVDM:
1. Adaptability:
Dynamic thresholds allow the strategy to adjust to changing market conditions, making it suitable for both low-volatility and high-volatility environments.
2. Quantitative Precision:
The use of standard deviation-based thresholds enhances statistical reliability and reduces subjectivity in decision-making.
3. Market Versatility:
The strategy’s reliance on volatility metrics makes it universally applicable across asset classes and markets, ensuring robust performance.
Scientific Relevance:
The strategy builds on empirical research into the predictive power of implied volatility over realized volatility (Poon & Granger, 2003). By leveraging the divergence between these measures, the DVDM aligns with findings that IV often overestimates future volatility, creating opportunities for mean-reversion trades. Furthermore, the inclusion of dynamic thresholds aligns with risk management best practices by adapting to volatility clustering, a well-documented phenomenon in financial markets (Engle, 1982).
References:
1. Christoffersen, P., & Jacobs, K. (2004). The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(2), 375-397.
2. Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.
3. Hull, J. C. (2012). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. Pearson Education.
4. Poon, S. H., & Granger, C. W. J. (2003). Forecasting volatility in financial markets: A review. Journal of Economic Literature, 41(2), 478-539.
5. Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
This strategy leverages quantitative techniques and statistical rigor to provide a systematic approach to volatility trading, making it a valuable tool for professional traders and quantitative analysts.
Adaptive Momentum Reversion StrategyThe Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy: An Empirical Approach to Market Behavior
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy seeks to capitalize on market price dynamics by combining concepts from momentum and mean reversion theories. This hybrid approach leverages a Rate of Change (ROC) indicator along with Bollinger Bands to identify overbought and oversold conditions, triggering trades based on the crossing of specific thresholds. The strategy aims to detect momentum shifts and exploit price reversions to their mean.
Theoretical Framework
Momentum and Mean Reversion: Momentum trading assumes that assets with a recent history of strong performance will continue in that direction, while mean reversion suggests that assets tend to return to their historical average over time (Fama & French, 1988; Poterba & Summers, 1988). This strategy incorporates elements of both, looking for periods when momentum is either overextended (and likely to revert) or when the asset’s price is temporarily underpriced relative to its historical trend.
Rate of Change (ROC): The ROC is a straightforward momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price over a specified period (Wilder, 1978). The strategy calculates the ROC over a 2-period window, making it responsive to short-term price changes. By using ROC, the strategy aims to detect price acceleration and deceleration.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are used to identify volatility and potential price extremes, often signaling overbought or oversold conditions. The bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bounds that adjust dynamically with price volatility (Bollinger, 2002).
The strategy employs two sets of Bollinger Bands: one for short-term volatility (lower band) and another for longer-term trends (upper band), with different lengths and standard deviation multipliers.
Strategy Construction
Indicator Inputs:
ROC Period: The rate of change is computed over a 2-period window, which provides sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.
Bollinger Bands:
Lower Band: Calculated with a 18-period length and a standard deviation of 1.7.
Upper Band: Calculated with a 21-period length and a standard deviation of 2.1.
Calculations:
ROC Calculation: The ROC is computed by comparing the current close price to the close price from rocPeriod days ago, expressing it as a percentage.
Bollinger Bands: The strategy calculates both upper and lower Bollinger Bands around the ROC, using a simple moving average as the central basis. The lower Bollinger Band is used as a reference for identifying potential long entry points when the ROC crosses above it, while the upper Bollinger Band serves as a reference for exits, when the ROC crosses below it.
Trading Conditions:
Long Entry: A long position is initiated when the ROC crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift from a period of low momentum to an increase in price movement.
Exit Condition: A position is closed when the ROC crosses under the upper Bollinger Band, or when the ROC drops below the lower band again, indicating a reversal or weakening of momentum.
Visual Indicators:
ROC Plot: The ROC is plotted as a line to visualize the momentum direction.
Bollinger Bands: The upper and lower bands, along with their basis (simple moving averages), are plotted to delineate the expected range for the ROC.
Background Color: To enhance decision-making, the strategy colors the background when extreme conditions are detected—green for oversold (ROC below the lower band) and red for overbought (ROC above the upper band), indicating potential reversal zones.
Strategy Performance Considerations
The use of Bollinger Bands in this strategy provides an adaptive framework that adjusts to changing market volatility. When volatility increases, the bands widen, allowing for larger price movements, while during quieter periods, the bands contract, reducing trade signals. This adaptiveness is critical in maintaining strategy effectiveness across different market conditions.
The strategy’s pyramiding setting is disabled (pyramiding=0), ensuring that only one position is taken at a time, which is a conservative risk management approach. Additionally, the strategy includes transaction costs and slippage parameters to account for real-world trading conditions.
Empirical Evidence and Relevance
The combination of momentum and mean reversion has been widely studied and shown to provide profitable opportunities under certain market conditions. Studies such as Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) confirm that momentum strategies tend to work well in trending markets, while mean reversion strategies have been effective during periods of high volatility or after sharp price movements (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By integrating both strategies into one system, the Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy may be able to capitalize on both trending and reverting market behavior.
Furthermore, research by Chan (1996) on momentum-based trading systems demonstrates that adaptive strategies, which adjust to changes in market volatility, often outperform static strategies, providing a compelling rationale for the use of Bollinger Bands in this context.
Conclusion
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy provides a robust framework for trading based on the dual concepts of momentum and mean reversion. By using ROC in combination with Bollinger Bands, the strategy is capable of identifying overbought and oversold conditions while adapting to changing market conditions. The use of adaptive indicators ensures that the strategy remains flexible and can perform across different market environments, potentially offering a competitive edge for traders who seek to balance risk and reward in their trading approaches.
References
Bollinger, J. (2002). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. McGraw-Hill Professional.
Chan, L. K. C. (1996). Momentum, Mean Reversion, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681-1713.
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 27-59.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research.
Forex Pair Yield Momentum This Pine Script strategy leverages yield differentials between the 2-year government bond yields of two countries to trade Forex pairs. Yield spreads are widely regarded as a fundamental driver of currency movements, as highlighted by international finance theories like the Interest Rate Parity (IRP), which suggests that currencies with higher yields tend to appreciate due to increased capital flows:
1. Dynamic Yield Spread Calculation:
• The strategy dynamically calculates the yield spread (yield_a - yield_b) for the chosen Forex pair.
• Example: For GBP/USD, the spread equals US 2Y Yield - UK 2Y Yield.
2. Momentum Analysis via Bollinger Bands:
• Yield momentum is computed as the difference between the current spread and its moving
Bollinger Bands are applied to identify extreme deviations:
• Long Entry: When momentum crosses below the lower band.
• Short Entry: When momentum crosses above the upper band.
3. Reversal Logic:
• An optional checkbox reverses the trading logic, allowing long trades at the upper band and short trades at the lower band, accommodating different market conditions.
4. Trade Management:
• Positions are held for a predefined number of bars (hold_periods), and each trade uses a fixed contract size of 100 with a starting capital of $20,000.
Theoretical Basis:
1. Yield Differentials and Currency Movements:
• Empirical studies, such as Clarida et al. (2009), confirm that interest rate differentials significantly impact exchange rate dynamics, especially in carry trade strategies .
• Higher-yields tend to appreciate against lower-yielding currencies due to speculative flows and demand for higher returns.
2. Bollinger Bands for Momentum:
• Bollinger Bands effectively capture deviations in yield momentum, identifying opportunities where price returns to equilibrium (mean reversion) or extends in trend-following scenarios (momentum breakout).
• As Bollinger (2001) emphasized, this tool adapts to market volatility by dynamically adjusting thresholds .
References:
1. Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Journal of Political Economy.
2. Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1996). Foundations of International Macroeconomics.
3. Clarida, R., Davis, J., & Pedersen, N. (2009). Currency Carry Trade Regimes. NBER.
4. Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands.
5. Mendelsohn, L. B. (2006). Forex Trading Using Intermarket Analysis.
Kernel Regression Envelope with SMI OscillatorThis script combines the predictive capabilities of the **Nadaraya-Watson estimator**, implemented by the esteemed jdehorty (credit to him for his excellent work on the `KernelFunctions` library and the original Nadaraya-Watson Envelope indicator), with the confirmation strength of the **Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI)** to create a dynamic trend reversal strategy. The core idea is to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions using the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and then confirm these signals with the SMI before entering a trade.
**Understanding the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope:**
The Nadaraya-Watson estimator is a non-parametric regression technique that essentially calculates a weighted average of past price data to estimate the current underlying trend. Unlike simple moving averages that give equal weight to all past data within a defined period, the Nadaraya-Watson estimator uses a **kernel function** (in this case, the Rational Quadratic Kernel) to assign weights. The key parameters influencing this estimation are:
* **Lookback Window (h):** This determines how many historical bars are considered for the estimation. A larger window results in a smoother estimation, while a smaller window makes it more reactive to recent price changes.
* **Relative Weighting (alpha):** This parameter controls the influence of different time frames in the estimation. Lower values emphasize longer-term price action, while higher values make the estimator more sensitive to shorter-term movements.
* **Start Regression at Bar (x\_0):** This allows you to exclude the potentially volatile initial bars of a chart from the calculation, leading to a more stable estimation.
The script calculates the Nadaraya-Watson estimation for the closing price (`yhat_close`), as well as the highs (`yhat_high`) and lows (`yhat_low`). The `yhat_close` is then used as the central trend line.
**Dynamic Envelope Bands with ATR:**
To identify potential entry and exit points around the Nadaraya-Watson estimation, the script uses **Average True Range (ATR)** to create dynamic envelope bands. ATR measures the volatility of the price. By multiplying the ATR by different factors (`nearFactor` and `farFactor`), we create multiple bands:
* **Near Bands:** These are closer to the Nadaraya-Watson estimation and are intended to identify potential immediate overbought or oversold zones.
* **Far Bands:** These are further away and can act as potential take-profit or stop-loss levels, representing more extreme price extensions.
The script calculates both near and far upper and lower bands, as well as an average between the near and far bands. This provides a nuanced view of potential support and resistance levels around the estimated trend.
**Confirming Reversals with the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI):**
While the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope identifies potential overextended conditions, the **Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI)** is used to confirm a potential trend reversal. The SMI, unlike a traditional stochastic oscillator, oscillates around a zero line. It measures the location of the current closing price relative to the median of the high/low range over a specified period.
The script calculates the SMI on a **higher timeframe** (defined by the "Timeframe" input) to gain a broader perspective on the market momentum. This helps to filter out potential whipsaws and false signals that might occur on the current chart's timeframe. The SMI calculation involves:
* **%K Length:** The lookback period for calculating the highest high and lowest low.
* **%D Length:** The period for smoothing the relative range.
* **EMA Length:** The period for smoothing the SMI itself.
The script uses a double EMA for smoothing within the SMI calculation for added smoothness.
**How the Indicators Work Together in the Strategy:**
The strategy enters a long position when:
1. The closing price crosses below the **near lower band** of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope, suggesting a potential oversold condition.
2. The SMI crosses above its EMA, indicating positive momentum.
3. The SMI value is below -50, further supporting the oversold idea on the higher timeframe.
Conversely, the strategy enters a short position when:
1. The closing price crosses above the **near upper band** of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope, suggesting a potential overbought condition.
2. The SMI crosses below its EMA, indicating negative momentum.
3. The SMI value is above 50, further supporting the overbought idea on the higher timeframe.
Trades are closed when the price crosses the **far band** in the opposite direction of the trade. A stop-loss is also implemented based on a fixed value.
**In essence:** The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope identifies areas where the price might be deviating significantly from its estimated trend. The SMI, calculated on a higher timeframe, then acts as a confirmation signal, suggesting that the momentum is shifting in the direction of a potential reversal. The ATR-based bands provide dynamic entry and exit points based on the current volatility.
**How to Use the Script:**
1. **Apply the script to your chart.**
2. **Adjust the "Kernel Settings":**
* **Lookback Window (h):** Experiment with different values to find the smoothness that best suits the asset and timeframe you are trading. Lower values make the envelope more reactive, while higher values make it smoother.
* **Relative Weighting (alpha):** Adjust to control the influence of different timeframes on the Nadaraya-Watson estimation.
* **Start Regression at Bar (x\_0):** Increase this value if you want to exclude the initial, potentially volatile, bars from the calculation.
* **Stoploss:** Set your desired stop-loss value.
3. **Adjust the "SMI" settings:**
* **%K Length, %D Length, EMA Length:** These parameters control the sensitivity and smoothness of the SMI. Experiment to find settings that work well for your trading style.
* **Timeframe:** Select the higher timeframe you want to use for SMI confirmation.
4. **Adjust the "ATR Length" and "Near/Far ATR Factor":** These settings control the width and sensitivity of the envelope bands. Smaller ATR lengths make the bands more reactive to recent volatility.
5. **Customize the "Color Settings"** to your preference.
6. **Observe the plots:**
* The **Nadaraya-Watson Estimation (yhat)** line represents the estimated underlying trend.
* The **near and far upper and lower bands** visualize potential overbought and oversold zones based on the ATR.
* The **fill areas** highlight the regions between the near and far bands.
7. **Look for entry signals:** A long entry is considered when the price touches or crosses below the lower near band and the SMI confirms upward momentum. A short entry is considered when the price touches or crosses above the upper near band and the SMI confirms downward momentum.
8. **Manage your trades:** The script provides exit signals when the price crosses the far band. The fixed stop-loss will also close trades if the price moves against your position.
**Justification for Combining Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and SMI:**
The combination of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and the SMI provides a more robust approach to identifying potential trend reversals compared to using either indicator in isolation. The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope excels at identifying potential areas where the price is overextended relative to its recent history. However, relying solely on the envelope can lead to false signals, especially in choppy or volatile markets. By incorporating the SMI as a confirmation tool, we add a momentum filter that helps to validate the potential reversals signaled by the envelope. The higher timeframe SMI further helps to filter out noise and focus on more significant shifts in momentum. The ATR-based bands add a dynamic element to the entry and exit points, adapting to the current market volatility. This mashup aims to leverage the strengths of each indicator to create a more reliable trading strategy.
Z-Strike RecoveryThis strategy utilizes the Z-Score of daily changes in the VIX (Volatility Index) to identify moments of extreme market panic and initiate long entries. Scientific research highlights that extreme volatility levels often signal oversold markets, providing opportunities for mean-reversion strategies.
How the Strategy Works
Calculation of Daily VIX Changes:
The difference between today’s and yesterday’s VIX closing prices is calculated.
Z-Score Calculation:
The Z-Score quantifies how far the current change deviates from the mean (average), expressed in standard deviations:
Z-Score=(Daily VIX Change)−MeanStandard Deviation
Z-Score=Standard Deviation(Daily VIX Change)−Mean
The mean and standard deviation are computed over a rolling period of 16 days (default).
Entry Condition:
A long entry is triggered when the Z-Score exceeds a threshold of 1.3 (adjustable).
A high positive Z-Score indicates a strong overreaction in the market (panic).
Exit Condition:
The position is closed after 10 periods (days), regardless of market behavior.
Visualizations:
The Z-Score is plotted to make extreme values visible.
Horizontal threshold lines mark entry signals.
Bars with entry signals are highlighted with a blue background.
This strategy is particularly suitable for mean-reverting markets, such as the S&P 500.
Scientific Background
Volatility and Market Behavior:
Studies like Whaley (2000) demonstrate that the VIX, known as the "fear gauge," is highly correlated with market panic phases. A spike in the VIX is often interpreted as an oversold signal due to excessive hedging by investors.
Source: Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Z-Score in Financial Strategies:
The Z-Score is a proven method for detecting statistical outliers and is widely used in mean-reversion strategies.
Source: Chan, E. (2009). Quantitative Trading. Wiley Finance.
Mean-Reversion Approach:
The strategy builds on the mean-reversion principle, which assumes that extreme market movements tend to revert to the mean over time.
Source: Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Trend Trader-Remastered StrategyOfficial Strategy for Trend Trader - Remastered
Indicator: Trend Trader-Remastered (TTR)
Overview:
The Trend Trader-Remastered is a refined and highly sophisticated implementation of the Parabolic SAR designed to create strategic buy and sell entry signals, alongside precision take profit and re-entry signals based on marked Bill Williams (BW) fractals. Built with a deep emphasis on clarity and accuracy, this indicator ensures that only relevant and meaningful signals are generated, eliminating any unnecessary entries or exits.
Please check the indicator details and updates via the link above.
Important Disclosure:
My primary objective is to provide realistic strategies and a code base for the TradingView Community. Therefore, the default settings of the strategy version of the indicator have been set to reflect realistic world trading scenarios and best practices.
Key Features:
Strategy execution date&time range.
Take Profit Reduction Rate: The percentage of progressive reduction on active position size for take profit signals.
Example:
TP Reduce: 10%
Entry Position Size: 100
TP1: 100 - 10 = 90
TP2: 90 - 9 = 81
Re-Entry When Rate: The percentage of position size on initial entry of the signal to determine re-entry.
Example:
RE When: 50%
Entry Position Size: 100
Re-Entry Condition: Active Position Size < 50
Re-Entry Fill Rate: The percentage of position size on initial entry of the signal to be completed.
Example:
RE Fill: 75%
Entry Position Size: 100
Active Position Size: 50
Re-Entry Order Size: 25
Final Active Position Size:75
Important: Even RE When condition is met, the active position size required to drop below RE Fill rate to trigger re-entry order.
Key Points:
'Process Orders on Close' is enabled as Take Profit and Re-Entry signals must be executed on candle close.
'Calculate on Every Tick' is enabled as entry signals are required to be executed within candle time.
'Initial Capital' has been set to 10,000 USD.
'Default Quantity Type' has been set to 'Percent of Equity'.
'Default Quantity' has been set to 10% as the best practice of investing 10% of the assets.
'Currency' has been set to USD.
'Commission Type' has been set to 'Commission Percent'
'Commission Value' has been set to 0.05% to reflect the most realistic results with a common taker fee value.
VIX Spike StrategyThis script implements a trading strategy based on the Volatility Index (VIX) and its standard deviation. It aims to enter a long position when the VIX exceeds a certain number of standard deviations above its moving average, which is a signal of a volatility spike. The position is then exited after a set number of periods.
VIX Symbol (vix_symbol): The input allows the user to specify the symbol for the VIX index (typically "CBOE:VIX").
Standard Deviation Length (stddev_length): The number of periods used to calculate the standard deviation of the VIX. This can be adjusted by the user.
Standard Deviation Multiplier (stddev_multiple): This multiplier is used to determine how many standard deviations above the moving average the VIX must exceed to trigger a long entry.
Exit Periods (exit_periods): The user specifies how many periods after entering the position the strategy will exit the trade.
Strategy Logic:
Data Loading: The script loads the VIX data, both for the current timeframe and as a rescaled version for calculation purposes.
Standard Deviation Calculation: It calculates both the moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of the VIX over the specified period (stddev_length).
Entry Condition: A long position is entered when the VIX exceeds the moving average by a specified multiple of its standard deviation (calculated as vix_mean + stddev_multiple * vix_stddev).
Exit Condition: After the position is entered, it will be closed after the user-defined number of periods (exit_periods).
Visualization:
The VIX is plotted in blue.
The moving average of the VIX is plotted in orange.
The threshold for the VIX, which is the moving average plus the standard deviation multiplier, is plotted in red.
The background turns green when the entry condition is met, providing a visual cue.
Sources:
The VIX is often used as a measure of market volatility, with high values indicating increased uncertainty in the market.
Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the variability or dispersion of a set of data points. In financial markets, it is used to measure the volatility of asset prices.
References:
Bollerslev, T. (1986). "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity." Journal of Econometrics.
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities." Journal of Political Economy.
