MNQM2025交易观点
浅谈一波nq1！自从上次推荐做空nq1失败，nq1突破后，纳斯达克指数已经经过了长达接近1年的牛市。
虽然大家经常打趣说美股万年长牛，但现在还是必须进行一些调整了。
从技术层面来看，8h rsi已经严重背离，而且目前这个价位在1d rsi上也已经出现轻微背离，这是比较少见的情况，而每次发生都会迎来一波调整，所以不需要过度担心。
Dynamic Volume Profile profiting 動態成交量分布盈利
**Dynamic Volume Profile Profiting** **動態成交量分布盈利**
Dynamic volume profile involves creating multiple volume profiles not based on time, but rather according to market participants. This is one of the most straightforward and effective methods for applying volume profile, put out higher success rate.
動態成交量分布涉及創建多個成交量分布圖，不是基於時間，而是根據市場參與者。這是應用Volume Profile的最直接、最有效的方法之一，輸出較高的成功率。
In golfing, a successful golfer swings consistently and knows exact which club to apply. Does this sound familiar in trading? Yes, but if every single hole is 100 yards, would an average person be better at scoring? Yes, you would only need 2 clubs.
在高爾夫運動中，成功的高爾夫球手會始終如一地揮桿並確切地知道該使用哪支球桿。這在交易中聽起來很熟悉嗎？是的，但如果每個洞都是 100 碼，普通人的得分會更好嗎？是的，您只需要 2 個球桿.
**Historical Background:**
**历史背景
In the early 1980s, Peter Steidlmayer introduced Market Profile for CBOE. Rather than focusing on visual elements like blocks or alphabets, Steidlmayer identified two primary groups of market participants:
20 世纪 80 年代初，Peter Steidlmayer 介紹了 CBOE 的市場籌碼分布(市場輪廓)。 Steidlmayer 沒有關注塊或字母等視覺元素，而是確定了兩個主要的市場參與者群體：
- A. Short Time Frame (STF) 短時間
- B. Long Time Frame (LTF) 長期
Market Profile is not a trading system; it's a data distribution curve. Crucially, it highlights areas where the underlying asset is either overvalued or undervalued.
市場概況不是一個交易系統；這是一條數據分布曲線。至關重要的是，它突出顯示了標的資產被高估或低估的領域。
Market Profile and Volume Profile(later), introduced 40 years ago, serve the same purpose: identifying market participants and determining fair market value.
40 年前推出的市場籌碼分布(市場輪廓)和成交量分布(後期) 具有相同的目的：識別市場參與者並確定公平市場價值。
**Applying Market Profile or Volume Profile:**
**應用市場概況或成交量分布：**
- STF traders tend to gravitate towards fair value, creating a balanced market. 交易者傾向於公允價值，從而創造一個平衡的市場。
- LTF participants are the true drivers of market movements. They can enter the market at any time, which necessitates the use of Dynamic Volume Profile. 參與者是市場走勢的真正推動者。他們可以隨時進入市場，這就需要使用動態成交量分布 Dynamic Volume Profile。
With these two groups in play, the market oscillates between balance and imbalance, but not on a regular schedule, as only LTF traders truly know.
在這兩個群體的作用下，市場在平衡和不平衡之間振蕩，但並不是有規律的，只有 LTF 交易者才真正知道。
The traditional settings for Market Profile or Volume Profile (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or Yearly) were established 40 years ago due to limited computing resources and technical constraints. This led to single profiles showing multiple overlapping and disorganized structures, making it time-consuming for the average trader to master. Dynamic volume profile separates each micro-structure (balance) into its own profile. This visually distinguishes each balance from imbalance, which is the primary purpose of Market Profile or Volume Profile. Once these structures are clearly defined, value is revealed, simplifying trading.
由于有限的计算资源和技术限制，市場籌碼分布(市場輪廓)或成交量分布（每日、每周、每月或每年）的传统设置是在 40 年前建立的。这导致单个配置profile显示出多个重叠和杂乱的结构，使得普通交易者需要花费大量时间来掌握。Dynamic Volume Profile分布将每个微观结构（平衡點）分成自己的分布。这在视觉上区分了每个平衡与不平衡，这是市场概况或成交量概况的主要目的。一旦明确定义了这些结构，价值就会显现出来，从而简化交易。
There are two outcomes:
有兩個情況：
- Balance: Multiple structure profiles overlapping horizontally, creating a choppy zone unfavorable for day trading.
- 平衡：多個結構分布圖水平重疊，形成不利於日間交易的波動區域。
P-shape and b-shape distribution curve characteristics
P-shape profile means that the market rally and spends time higher of the distribution and creating a profile that looks like a letter P.
b-shape profile means that the market drops and spends the rest of its distributing, creating a profile that looks like letter b.
P 型和 b 型分布曲線特徵
P 形圖意味著市場反彈並長時間較高區的分布並創建看起來像字母 P 的輪廓。
b 形圖意味著市場下降並耗長期在較低處分布，形成一個看起來像字母 b 的輪廓。
- Imbalance: - 不平衡
- **Long Trade:** Each structure profile forms a higher high. Place a trade targeting the previous profile's Value Area High (VAH). Consider anticipating a breakout with added strength. Set a stop below the previous profile's low.
- **多頭交易：** 每個結構輪廓形成更高的高點。以先前配置分布图的價值區域高點 (VAH) 為目標進行交易。考慮預期會出現強度更大的突破。如果價格跌破之前的低點，設置止損。
- **Short Trade:** Each structure profile forms a lower low. Place a trade targeting the previous profile's Value Area Low (VAL). You might hold it for a breakdown with added caution. Set a stop above the previous profile's high.
- **空頭交易：** 每個結構輪廓形成較低的低點。以先前配置分布圖的價值區域低點 (VAL) 為目標進行交易。您可能會謹慎持有它以等待穿透。如果價格上漲超過之前的高點，設置止損。
This is a very famous systematic strategy by Jim Dalton: there is an 80% chance to rotate to the other side of the value area.
這是道爾頓, Jim Dalton非常著名的系統策略: 有80%的幾率旋轉到數值區域的另一邊.
The suggested Reward/Risk ratio is 3:1, depending on your personal risk tolerance.
建議的回報/風險比率為 3:1，具體取決於您個人的風險承受能力。
Market Profile/Volume Profile prerequisite knowledge if setting on preset time (skip if use with Dynamic Volume Profile):
-Excess is buying/selling tail
Excess is seen at the tops and bottoms of the profile, and it indicates the end of the auction and the start of a new one.
-Poor high/low are often revisited
Poor high and poor low can be considered as a lack of excess.
We can see these when the market has low confidence in the current direction.
Showing no tails and conviction of traders stepping in.
-Failed auction
The failed auction occurs when the Initial Balance low or high is taken out, but the market fails to sustain the breakout.
-Single prints are the same as excess but happen inside the profile.
They are represented with single TPOs printed on the Market profile.
They leave low volume nodes with liquidity gaps, so they tell us that market moved too fast through the area.
These inefficient moves tend to get filled, and we can seek trading opportunities once they get filled, or we can also enter before they get filled and use these single prints as targets.
-Market Profile opening types
Open Drive
Open Test Drive
Open Rejection Reverse
Open Auction
如果設置預設時間，市場籌碼分布(市場輪廓)或成交量分布必備知識（如果使用動態成交量分布則跳過)：
- Excess是買入/賣出長尾巴
在profile的頂部和底部可以看到多餘的部分，這表明拍賣的結束和新拍賣的開始。
-高機會回去的Poor高點/低點
Poor高和Poor低都可以認為是缺乏Excess。
當市場對當前方向信心不足時，我們可以看到這些。
沒有表現出尾巴和交易者介入的信念。
- 拍賣失敗
當IB低點或高點被消除，但市場未能維持突破時，就會出現拍賣失敗。
-SinglePrints與Excess相同，但發生在profile內部。
它們以印在市場籌碼分布(市場輪廓)上的單個 TPO 來表示。
他們留下了具有流動性缺口的低交易量節點，因此他們告訴我們市場在該區域移動得太快。
這些低效的動作往往將會被成交，我們可以在成交後尋找交易機會，也可以在成交之前入場，以這些SinglePrints為目標。
-市場籌碼分布(市場輪廓)開市類型
Open Drive
Open Test Drive
Open Rejection Reverse
Open Auction
**Mysteries:**
**謎團：**
- **POC Trade:** Trading based on the Point of Control (POC) during the day is often incomplete, only evident in hindsight. In a balanced market, the POC doesn't change much, potentially resulting in getting chopped out of trades in the POC zone. In an imbalanced market, your trade might start in the POC zone, but as value shifts, your trade may no longer align with the POC. The market is dynamic, and traders must adapt to new information to thrive.
- **POC 交易：** 白天基於控制點 (POC) 的交易通常是不完整的，只有在事後才可見。在平衡的市場中，POC 不會發生太大變化，可能會導致 POC 區域的交易被剔除。在不平衡的市場中，您的交易可能從 POC 區域開始，但隨著價值的變化，您的交易可能不再與 POC 保持一致。市場是動態的，交易者必須適應新信息才能蓬勃發展。
- **Value Area High/Low Trade:** Steidlmayer explained that balance and imbalance occur intermittently, not necessarily every day at specific times like 10:01 AM or 12:00 PM. This unpredictability is due to the Long Time Frame participants. While it might seem like a good deal to enter a trade at Value Area Low (VAL) in hindsight, a balanced market throughout the day is not guaranteed. Only experts like Jim Dalton or experienced Market Profile and Volume Profile practitioners may possess the expertise to navigate such conditions. For the average trader, simplicity often proves most effective. A good deal at VAL may not necessarily be a great deal if the LTF participants are no longer driving the market and are willing to accept a lower fair value.
- **價值區域高/低交易：** Steidlmayer 解釋說，平衡和不平衡是間歇性發生的，不一定每天都在特定時間（例如上午 10:01 或下午 12:00）發生。這種不可預測性是由於LTF參與者造成的。雖然事後看來，在價值區域低點 (VAL) 進行交易似乎是一筆不錯的交易，但並不能保證全天市場的平衡。只有像吉姆·道爾頓這樣的專家或經驗豐富的市場籌碼分布(市場輪廓)和成交量分布從業者才能擁有應對此類情況的專業知識。
- Initial balance: Initially, it was defined as the first hour (back when there was limited internet access for most people), then later considered the first 30 minutes. Some YouTubers recently apply the first 15 minutes, which is not a static rule. It's important to remember that Long Time Frame (LTF) may not initiate any action during such times, then become much less influential. Dynamic Volume Profile detects market momentum and displays a new structural profile regardless of the time of day or night.
-Initial balance：最初被定義為第一個小時（當時大多數人的互聯網訪問權限有限），後來被定義為前 30 分鐘。一些 YouTuber 最近應用了前 15 分鐘，這不是靜態規則。重要的是要記住，LTF 可能不會在這些時間內發起任何行動，然後影響力就會大大降低。動態成交量概況可檢測市場動量並顯示新的結構概況，無論白天或晚上的時間
To enhance trading success, let the market reveal its balance or imbalance, and align with the prevailing trend. Swiftly identify trends through visualization, as with Dow Theory (price), Entanglement Theory (price), and Wyckoff (volume+price). Dynamic Volume Profile, incorporating both price and volume, is designed for simplicity and ease of trading.
為了提高交易成功率，讓市場揭示其平衡或不平衡，並與當前趨勢保持一致。通過可視化快速識別趨勢，如道氏理論（價格）, 纏論（價格）和威科夫理論（成交量+價格）。動態成交量分布結合了價格和交易量，旨在簡化和輕鬆交易。
纳指看多今年纳指回到大多头格局，4H图中可以看见下跌的行情再度转回多头，下影线回测跳空后的缺口，说明下方支撑强劲。
九月目前放空纳指的胜率仍不如做多可观，多单值得多次尝试，到周线图目标前高点可以出场。
纳指看多今年纳指回到大多头格局，4H图中可以看见下跌的行情再度转回多头，下影线回测跳空后的缺口，说明下方支撑强劲。
九月目前放空纳指的胜率仍不如做多可观，多单值得多次尝试，到周线图目标前高点可以出场。
納指看多今年纳指回到大多头格局，4H图中可以看见下跌的行情再度转回多头，下影线回测跳空后的缺口，说明下方支撑强劲。
九月目前放空纳指的胜率仍不如做多可观，多单值得多次尝试，到周线图目标前高点可以出场。
纳指看多今年纳指回到大多头格局，4H图中可以看见下跌的行情再度转回多头，下影线回测跳空后的缺口，说明下方支撑强劲。
九月目前放空纳指的胜率仍不如做多可观，多单值得多次尝试，到周线图目标前高点可以出场。
破底翻交易机会出现？破底翻交易机会
Nasdaq 与 台指 同步出现破底翻的型态，
看起来是个不错的交易机会，停损也不难抓。
站上做多、跌破做空，
其实大部份时候做短线的交易者都是在追涨杀跌的。
无推荐买卖之意，个人研究仅供参考。
买股票震荡2%大家没什么感觉，但是指数期货震荡2%通常会很痛苦，这是为什么呢？指数不也是权值股组成的，股票震荡2%以内似乎随机性很高吧，那指数好像也是一样的道理，可以思考看看也许会有一些收获。
