In a severe economic contraction with unemployment above 10% and interest rates above 5% ( mortgage rates above 8%) puts the S&P's probable trough multiple below 10.
My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply.
100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough.
Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply.
100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough.
Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
评论:
2008-2009 is another economic contraction that I based my projections off of. Corporate profits fell over 45%.