😀 SVB Crisis Is Over?! What S&P500 and VIX Are Talking About

已更新

The stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over.

👉 The CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed below the 20 level on Wednesday, for the first time since SVB - The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.
That is basically could be a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post SVB-failure.

👉 The VIX term structure is also back into normal contango. This normalization of spread is often a sign investors see the worst of the crisis behind.
The lower chart illustrates 3-months futures spread between a July, 2023 VIX Futures contract and the nearest - - April, 2023 VIX Futures contract, that is three months ahead of that, marking that the reddish days are over.

👉 S&P500 Technical picture indicates the breakdown of reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure is happening.
SPX is above weekly SMA (200) as it got the support early on Q4'22. 52-weeks simple moving average is trying to hold on above, for the 12th year in a row.

👉 If investors expect an imminent financial crisis but one doesn't materialize, the change in sentiment will help drive stocks higher as investors unwind bearish positions and get more bullish .
All-in, with stocks higher over the past six months since the mid-October low, so further upside could be ahead. If stocks do not make a new low post this crisis, the bears could capitulate.

交易开始

31-03-2023

💎🙌 VIX Magic Power Works

交易开始

01-04-2023

SPX TR is on the Bullish path, breaks 11-months resistance at the end of Q1'23.

Based on SPX seasonality over the past twenty years the following month (April) averagely is positive in 80% cases (the best month as well as November).
In years over the past twenty where Q1 return is positive, the following month (April) averagely is positive in 86% of all cases (the best month in a year).

And this one is not an April, 1 joke 😄