Stef's Enterprise Value CalculatorI have learned the hard way why Enterprise Value is far more superior than Market Cap. That's why I made this indicator, but more importantly, why I added several features that other similar indicators just don't have. The key thing is to not just show you Enterprise Value of a company (it's true worth) but also the capability to see that line colored in a specific way, with key stats as a neat table, and the ability to chart the key facts that go into Enterprise Value, which are debt and cash.
I'll say it again: Market Cap is not nearly as good as Enterprise Value. Don't get tricked by what Market Cap does NOT show you and instead focus on Enterprise Value. I hope my indicator, and the features you see below, help investors and traders all over the world better understand this.
Here are the key features:
Enterprise Value Indicator Features:
1. Real-Time Enterprise Value (EV) Display: Track the EV of a company directly on your chart, providing a comprehensive measure of its true market value.
2. Custom Color Trends: Customize the color of your EV line based on specific trends you’re monitoring, allowing for personalized and insightful visual analysis.
3. Debt & Cash Visualization: Plot both debt and cash & equivalents on the same chart, offering a clear and concise view of a company’s financial health.
4. Key Metrics Table: View a table displaying essential metrics including:
- Average EV
- Highest EV
- Lowest EV
- MC-EV (Market Cap minus Enterprise Value)
MC-EV Charting: Easily chart MC-EV to understand how much debt a company has relative to its market cap, providing insight into financial leverage and growth potential.
Why MC-EV Matters: This metric is crucial for evaluating a company’s financial risk and operational efficiency, giving you an edge in making informed investment decisions.
Thanks for reading and I hope you find some value in this! More updates to come.
Valueinvesting
Stef's Money Supply IndicatorI have been fascinated by the growth in the Money Supply. Well, I think we ALL have been fascinated by this and the corresponding inflation that followed. That's why I created my Money Supply Indicator because I always wanted to chart and analyze my symbols based on the Money Supply. This indicator gives you that capability in a way that no other indicator in this field currently offers. Let me explain:
How does the indicator work?
Chart any symbol, turn on this indicator, and instantly it will factor in the M2 money supply on the asset's underlying price. Essentially, you are seeing the price of the asset normalized for the corresponding rise in the money supply. In some ways, this is a rather unique inflation-adjusted view of a symbol's price.
More importantly, you can compare and contrast the symbol's price adjusted for the rise in the Money Supply vs. the symbol's price without that adjustment by indexing all lines to 100. This is essential for understanding if the asset is at all-time highs, lows, or possibly undervalued or overvalued based on the current money supply situation.
Why does this matter?
This tool provides a deeper understanding of how the overall money supply influences the value of assets over time. By adjusting asset prices for changes in the money supply, traders can see the true value of assets relative to the amount of money in circulation.
What features can you access with this indicator?
The ability to normalize all lines to a starting point of 100 allows traders to compare the performance of the Money Supply, the symbol price, and the symbol price adjusted for the money supply all on one readable chart. This feature is particularly useful for spotting divergences and understanding relative performance over time with a rising or falling Money Supply.
What else can you do?
This is just version 1, and so I'll be adding more features rather soon, but there are two other important features in the settings menu including the following:
• Get the capability to quickly spot the highest and lowest points on the Money Supply adjusted price of your asset.
• Get the capability to change the gradient colors of the line when going up or down.
• Turn on the Brrrrrrr printer text as a reminder of our Fed Overlord Jerome Powell... lol
• Drag this indicator onto your main chart to combine it with your candlesticks or other charting techniques.
Stef's Money Supply Indicator! I look forward to hearing your feedback.
Buffett Valuation Indicator [TradeDots]The Buffett Valuation Indicator (also known as the Buffett Index or Buffett Ratio) measures the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP.
This indicator helps determine whether the valuation changes in US stocks are justified by the GDP level.
For example, the ratio is calculated based on the standard deviations from the historical trend line. If the value exceeds +2 standard deviations, it suggests that the stock market is overvalued relative to GDP, and vice versa.
This "Buffett Valuation Indicator" is an enhanced version of the original indicator. It applies a Bollinger Band over the Valuation/GDP ratio to identify overvaluation and undervaluation across different timeframes, making it efficient for use in smaller timeframes, e.g. daily or even hourly intervals.
HOW DOES IT WORK
The Buffett Valuation Indicator measures the ratio between US stock valuation and US GDP, evaluating whether stock valuations are overvalued or undervalued in GDP terms.
In this version, the total valuation of the US stock market is represented by considering the top 10 market capitalization stocks.
Users can customize this list to include other stocks for a more balanced valuation ratio. Alternatively, users may use S&P 500 ETFs, such as SPY or VOO, as inputs.
The ratio is plotted as a line chart in a separate panel below the main chart. A Bollinger Band with a default 100-period and multiples of 1 and 2 is used to identify overvaluation and undervaluation.
For instance, if the ratio line moves above the +2 standard deviation line, it indicates that stocks are overvalued, signaling a potential selling opportunity.
APPLICATION
When the indicator is applied to a chart, we observe the ratio line's movements relative to the standard deviation lines. The further the line deviates from the standard deviation lines, the more extreme the overvaluation or undervaluation.
We look for buying opportunities when the Buffett Index moves below the first and second standard deviation lines and sell opportunities when it moves above these lines. This indicator is used as a microeconomic confirmation tool, in combination with other indicators, to achieve higher win-rate setups.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Stock Value RainbowStock Valuation based on Book Value, Dividends, Cashflow, Earnings and Estimates and Money Multiplier
There are many ways to measure stock valuations: some methods are using book value, some are using dividends, some are using cashflow, some are using earnings and some using estimates data. Most of these valuation methods are based on multiplier effect which measure how many times the stock price could expand from their valuation base. This indicator attempts to unify all these measurements using just simple addition of all measurements such as: book value per share, dividend per share, cashflow per share, earning per share, and estimates of earning per share and then using multiplier effect to create beautiful rainbow to see how far the stock has growing up above or below their valuation base. The higher the stock price on rainbow spectrum means it is more expensive and the lower in the rainbow spectrum means it is cheaper. Here is the basic formula explanation:
SV = (BVPS + DPS + CFPS + EPS + EST) * MM
BVPS = Book Value Per Share (Asset - Liability)
DPS = Dividends Per Share
CFPS = Free Cash Flow Per Share
EPS = Earnings Per Share
EST = Estimates of EPS
MM = Money Multiplier (1x, 2x, ... ,10x)
- The gray line represents the stock value SV
- The rainbow above the gray line represents the multiplication factors from 1x, 2x, ..., 10x
- The rainbow below the gray line represents the division factors from 0.8x, 0.6x, ..., 0.2x
Check other script to value stock and index:
- Stock Value Rainbow: script to value stock based on book value, dividend, cash flow, earning and estimates.
- Index Value Rainbow: script to value index based on fed balance sheet and base money supply
- Gold Value Rainbow: script to value gold based on global money supply
- Stock Value US: script to check US stock value
- Stock Value EU: script to check EU stock value
- Stock Value JP: script to check JP stock value
- Stock Value CN: script to check CN stock value
Fair Value Calculator V 1.0Fair Value Calculator V 1.0
This indicator calculates the fair value of a stock based on the revenue growth rate and net profit margin of a company, providing a quick estimate of its intrinsic worth. The calculation takes into account:
Current Revenue: The company's current revenue
5-Year Growth Rate: Expected revenue annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 5 years
Average PE Ratio: The average Price-to-Earnings ratio for the next 5 years
Average Profit Margin: The average profit margin for the next 5 years
Share Outstanding: The total number of shares outstanding
Yearly Share Buyback Rate: The percentage of shares bought back by the company each year
Discount Rate: The rate used to calculate the present value of the fair value
Using these inputs, the indicator estimates the fair value of the stock, providing a valuable tool for investors and traders to make informed decisions.
Note: all values can be adjusted by the user by entering the desired value and selecting the item in the setup menu.
How it works
The indicator calculates the future revenue based on the current revenue and the expected revenue annual growth rate (CAGR).
It then estimates the future earnings using the average profit margin.
The future price is calculated using the exit value of the PE ratio.
The present value of the fair value is calculated using the discount rate.
The indicator adjusts the fair value based on the yearly share buyback rate.
Benefits
Provides a quick but valuable estimate of a stock's fair value based on the revenue growth and the expected profit.
Helps investors and traders identify undervalued or overvalued stocks.
Allows users to adjust inputs to suit their own assumptions and scenarios.
Note
This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research and consider multiple perspectives before making investment decisions.
Stock's Intrinsic Value| DCF modelScript Description
This pine script is based on a YouTube video titled: Warren Buffett: How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of a Stock. Warren Buffett is a famous value investor who follows the principles of his mentor Benjamin Graham. He looks for companies that have strong competitive advantages, consistent earnings, and low debt. He also considers the intrinsic value of a company, which is the present value of its future cash flows, and compares it to the market price. He prefers to buy stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value and hold them for a long time.
One of the methods that Buffett uses to estimate the intrinsic value of a company is the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. This involves projecting the free cash flow (FCF) of the company for several years and then discounting it back to the present using an appropriate discount rate. The discount rate is usually the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, which reflects its cost of equity and debt. The sum of the discounted FCFs and terminal value is the intrinsic value of the company.
Lastly, a margin of safety is included when using the DCF method for stock valuation because of uncertainty and error in estimating future cash flows and the intrinsic value of the company.
When the current price is below margin of safety, it means that the stock is currently undervalued and being price at significantly below its intrinsic value.
Guideline for determining each variable in this script
FCF growth rate: This is the annual rate at which the free cash flow (FCF) of the company is expected to grow over a forecast 10-year period. You can use historical FCF growth rates, industry averages, analyst estimates, or your assumptions to project the FCF growth rate. The higher the FCF growth rate, the higher the intrinsic value will be.
Discount rate: This is the rate of return that you require to invest in the company. It reflects the risk and opportunity cost of investing in the company. You can use the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, capital pricing model (CAPM), hurdle rate, or market rate as the discount rate. The lower the discount rate, the higher the intrinsic value.
The margin of safety: Provides a cushion against errors in the valuation or adverse events that may affect the company. The margin of safety depends on your personal preference and risk tolerance. Normally is at 15% - 30%, the higher the margin of safety you set, the lower the chance that the stock will hit that level.
How to use this script
Step 1: This script only works for stocks that have financial data of free cash flow and total common shares outstanding
Step 2: Please use a yearly chart (12-month chart)
Step 3: You are required to determine a growth rate that will grow the free cash flow 10 years into the future
Step 4: You are required to determine a discount rate for the calculations
Step 5: You are required to add a margin of safety (Accounting for uncertainty)
Step 6: The rest of the calculations will be done automatically.
Disclaimer when using this script
I'm not a financial advisor
This script is for education purposes only
There are risks involved with stock market investing and investors should not act upon the content or information found here without first seeking advice from an accountant, financial planner, lawyer or other professional.
I can’t guarantee that this script will be error-free as I still consider myself a Pinescript beginner
Before making any decisions, investors should always research companies individually
I'll not be liable for any loss incurred, arising from the use of, or reliance on, this script
Limitations of this script
This script only works on the yearly chart (12 monthly charts)
The intrinsic value of a company will be negative if the company have a negative forecasted free cash flow
You need to make an educated guess about the growth rate, discount rate and margin of safety
This script uses free cash flow instead of owner's earnings (Operating cash flow - Maintenance capital expenditure), therefore it can't accurately estimate the maintenance capital expenditure.
Need at least 6 years’ worth of financial data
Market capitalisation uses total common shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price instead of using company-level total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price
Fair Value by MMEnglish
IMPORTANT NOTICE
This indicator is used to find fair value based on historical data. Past growth data may not be sustainable, which will cause the price targets given by the indicator to be inaccurate. Any price on this indicator cannot be considered as investment advice. Trading decisions are the responsibility of the person using the indicator.
What is the Fair Value by MM indicator?
This is an indicator that tries to find the fair value of a stock by looking at its historical data and growth over a certain period of time. By analyzing a stock's historical growth data, it generates a fair value and potential price estimate.
The indicator presents the financial data of a stock with 3 different data sets.
1. Summary and Valuation
2. Average Quarterly Growth
3. Profit margins
** Number of Lookback Periods for Quarters **
The first input of the indicator is where you specify how many quarters back to value the stock. By default, it is based on the last 12 quarters, i.e. 3 years. Since there is not enough historical data for newly listed companies, you can change this figure according to the company you are analyzing.
** Show Summary **
The Indicator starts in this mode by default. This mode gives you data such as sales, EBITDA, EBIT, net profit and free cash flow in PER SHARE and TTM values. The reason for using per share values is that a company's price is per share, and it saves you time to look at all other metrics on a per share basis. For example, if a company with a share price of $10 has sales per share of $5, we can say that this company has generated half of its market capitalization in sales revenue in the last 1 year.
In the indicator's default mode (Show Summary);
1. Sales per share TTM (Red)
2. EBITDA per share TTM (Orange)
3. EBIT per share TTM (Yellow)
4. Net Income per share TTM (Blue)
5. Free Cash Flow per share TTM (Green)
6. Share close price (White)
7. Fair value of the share (Green if price is below fair value, Red if price is above fair value)
8. Price target for the next 12 months (Yellow)
** Show AVG Growth QoQ **
When this option is selected, you can see the average quarterly growth in sales, EBITDA, EBIT, net profit and free cash flow, respectively, over the period you have selected (e.g. the last 12 quarters). This data gives an idea about the company's growth and the pace of its growth.
** Show Profit Margins **
When this option is selected, you can see gross profit margin, EBITDA margin, EBIT margin, net profit margin and free cash flow margin data respectively. It provides a quick overview to determine whether the company is increasing revenue by narrowing profit margins or increasing both revenue growth and profit margins.
** Include Sales **
When this option is selected, sales revenues are included in the company's valuation.
** Include Ebitda **
When this option is selected, EBITDA is included in the valuation of the company.
** Include Ebit **
When this option is selected, EBIT is included in the valuation of the company.
** Include Net Profit **
When this option is selected, net profit is included in the valuation of the company.
** Include FCF **
When this option is selected, free cash flow is included in the valuation of the company.
By default, the valuation is based on sales, EBITDA and EBIT. Net profit and free cash flow can be optionally selected. Or the metrics you do not want can be excluded from the valuation calculation.
What do the colors mean?
** Red **
Represents the company's data related to the company's sales.
** Orange **
Represents the company's data related to the company's EBITDA.
** Yellow **
Represents the company's data related to the company's EBIT.
** Blue **
Represents the company's data related to the company's Net Income.
** Green **
Represents the company's data related to the company's Free Cash Flow.
Turkish
ÖNEMLİ UYARI
Bu indikatör geçmiş verileri baz alarak adil değer bulmaya yarar. Geçmişte oluşan büyüme verileri sürdürelebilir olmayabilir, bu da indikatörün verdiği fiyat hedeflerinin yanılmasına sebep olacaktır. Bu indikatör üzerinde yer alan herhangi bir fiyat, yatırım tavsiyesi kapsamında değerlendirilemez. Alım/satım kararları indikatörü kullanan kişinin sorumluluğundadır.
Fair Value by MM indikatörü nedir?
Bu bir hissenin belirli bir periyotu kapsayan geçmiş verilerine ve gelişimlerine bakarak adil değerini bulmaya çalışan bir indikatördür. Bir hissenin geçmiş büyüme verilerini analiz ederek adil değer ve potansiyel fiyat tahmini oluşturur.
İndikatör bir hissenin finansal datasını 3 farklı veri seti ile sunmaktadır.
1. Özet ve Değerleme
2. Ortalama Çeyreklik Büyümeler
3. Kar marjları
** Number of Lookback Periods for Quarters **
İndikatörün ilk input’u, hisseyi değerlemek için kaç çeyrek geriye bakacağınızı belirttiğiniz kısımdır. Varsayılan olarak son 12 çeyrek, yani 3 yılı baz alır. Yeni arz olmuş şirketlerde yeterli geçmiş veri bulunmadığı için bu rakamı incelediğiniz şirkete göre değiştirebilirsiniz.
** Show Summary **
İndikatör varsayılan olarak bu modda başlar. Bu mod, satışlar, favök, esas faaliyet karı, net kar ve serbest nakit akışı gibi verileri HİSSE BAŞINA ve YILLIKLANDIRILMIŞ değerleri ile size verir. Hisse başına değerlerin kullanılmasındaki sebep, bir şirketin fiyatı hisse başınadır, ve diğer tüm metriklere hisse başına bakmak size zaman kazandırır. Örneğin, hisse fiyatı $10 olan bir şirketin, hisse başına satışları $5 ise, bu şirket son 1 yılda piyasa değerinin yarısı kadar satış geliri elde etmiş diyebiliriz.
İndikatörün varsayılan modunda (Show Summary);
1. Hisse başına yıllıklandırılmış Satışlar (Kırmızı)
2. Hisse başına yıllıklandırılmış FAVÖK (Turuncu)
3. Hisse başına yıllıklandırılmış Esas Faaliyet Karı (Sarı)
4. Hisse başına yıllıklandırılmış Net Kar (Mavi)
5. Hisse başına yıllıklandırılmış Serbest Nakit Akışı (Yeşil)
6. Hisse kapanış fiyatı (Beyaz)
7. Hissenin adil değeri (Fiyat Adil değerin altında ise Yeşil, Üstünde ise Kırmızı)
8. Önümüzdeki 12 aylık fiyat hedefi (Sarı)
** Show AVG Growth QoQ **
Bu seçenek seçildiğinde, sırası ile satışlar, favök, esas faaliyet karı, net kar ve serbest nakit akışının, seçmiş olduğunuz periyotta (örneğin son 12 çeyrek), çeyreklik olarak ortalama % kaç büyüdüğünü görebilirsiniz. Bu veri, şirketin gelişimi ve gelişim hızı hakkında fikir vermektedir.
** Show Profit Margings **
Bu seçenek seçildiğinde, sırası ile brüt kar marjı, favök marjı, esas faaliyet kar marjı, net kar marjı ve serbest nakit akışı marjı verilerini görebilirsiniz. Şirketin karlılık marjlarını daraltarak mı gelirini arttırdığını yoksa hem gelir artışı hem de kar marjlarını arttırdığını tespit etmek için hızlı bir bakış sunar.
** Include Sales **
Bu seçenek seçildiğinde, şirketin değerlemesine satış gelirleri dahil edilir.
** Include Ebitda **
Bu seçenek seçildiğinde, şirketin değerlemesine favök dahil edilir.
** Include Ebit **
Bu seçenek seçildiğinde, şirketin değerlemesine esas faaliyet karları dahil edilir.
** Include Net Profit **
Bu seçenek seçildiğinde, şirketin değerlemesine net kar dahil edilir.
** Include FCF **
Bu seçenek seçildiğinde, şirketin değerlemesine serbest nakit akışı dahil edilir.
Varsayılan olarak, satışlar, favök ve esas faaliyet karı üzerinden değerleme yapılır. Net kar ve serbest nakit akışı isteğe göre seçilebilir. Ya da istemediğiniz metrikler değerleme hesaplamasından çıkarılabilir.
Renkler ne anlama geliyor?
** Kırmızı **
Şirketin satışları ile ilgili verilerini temsil eder.
** Turuncu **
Şirketin favök’ü ile ilgili verilerini temsil eder.
** Sarı **
Şirketin esas faaliyet karı ile ilgili verilerini temsil eder.
** Mavi **
Şirketin net karı ile ilgili verileri temsil eder.
** Yeşil **
Şirketin serbest nakit akışı ile ilgili verilerini temsil eder.
Valuation Metrics Table (P/S, P/E, etc.)This table gives the user a very easy way of seeing many valuation metrics. I also included the 5 year median of the price to sales and price to earnings ratios. Then I calculated the percent difference between the median and the current ratio. This gives a sense of whether or not a stock is over valued or under valued based on historical data. The other ratios are well known and don't require any explanation. You can turn off the ones you don't want in the settings of the indicator. Another thing to mention is that diluted EPS is used in calculations
Rainbow IndicatorName of the indicator: Rainbow indicator
A brief description of the indicator:
Using this indicator, you can see the "margin of safety" for opening a position in shares of fundamentally strong companies with an acceptable P/E level, as well as the price range for closing a position.
The background to the creation of the indicator:
I got the idea to create this indicator thanks to the concept of the "margin of safety", which was invented by the father of value investing - Benjamin Graham. According to his idea, it is reasonable to buy shares of a company only when the price offered by the market is lower than the "intrinsic value" calculated on the basis of financial statements. The value of this difference is the "margin of safety”. At the same time, the indicator does not copy Graham's idea but develops it relying on my own methodology.
So, according to Graham, the "margin of safety" is a good discount to the intrinsic value of the company. That is, if a company's stock is trading at prices that are well below the company's intrinsic value (on a per-share basis), it's a good opportunity to consider buying it. In this case, you will have a certain margin of safety in case the company is in financial distress and its stock price goes down. Accordingly, the greater the discount, the better.
When it comes to the intrinsic value of a company, there are many approaches to determining it - from calculating the Price-to-book value financial ratio to the discounted cash flow method. As for my approach, I am not trying to find the cherished intrinsic value, but I am trying to understand how fundamentally strong the company is in front of me, and in how many years the investment in it will pay off. To determine fundamental strength, I use the appropriate Fundamental Strength Indicator . To estimate the payback period, I use the P/E ratio (*). If I am satisfied with both of these indicators, I move on to the Rainbow Indicator.
(*) If you want to learn more about the P/E ratio, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView:
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1
Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2
Indicator calculation methodology:
The Rainbow indicator starts with a simple moving average of one year (this is the thick red line in the center). Hereinafter a year will mean the last 252 trading days.
Applying a moving average of this length - is a good way to smooth out sharp price fluctuations which can happen during a year as much as possible, keeping the trend direction as much as possible. Thus, the moving average becomes for me the center of fluctuations of the imaginary pendulum of the market price.
Then the deviations are calculated from the center of fluctuations. To do this, a certain amount of earnings per share is subtracted from and added to the moving average. This is the diluted EPS of the last year.
Deviations with a "-" sign form the Lower Rainbow of four colors:
- The blue spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -4 EPS and ends with a deflection of -8 EPS.
- Green spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -8 EPS and ends with a deflection of -16 EPS.
- The orange spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -16 EPS and ends with a deflection of -32 EPS.
- Red spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -32 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Lower Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for buying stocks. It is in the spectra of the Lower Rainbow that the very "margin of safety" according to my methodology is located. The Lower Rainbow has the boundaries between the spectra as a solid line . And only the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow has only one boundary.
Deviations with a "+" sign form the Upper Rainbow of four similar colors:
- The red spectrum of the upper rainbow begins with a deflection of 0 EPS and ends with a deflection of +4 EPS.
- The orange spectrum of the upper rainbow begins with a deflection of +4 EPS and ends with a deflection of +8 EPS.
- Green spectrum top rainbow begins with a deflection of +8 EPS and ends with a deflection of +16 EPS.
- The blue spectrum of the upper rainbow begins with a deflection of +16 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Upper Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for selling stocks already purchased. The top rainbow has boundaries between the spectra in the form of crosses . And only the blue spectrum of the upper rainbow has only one boundary.
The presence of the Empty Area (the size of 4 EPS) above the Lower Rainbow creates some asymmetry between the two rainbows - the Lower Rainbow looks wider than the Upper Rainbow. This asymmetry is deliberate because the market tends to fall much faster and deeper than it grows . Therefore, a wider Lower Rainbow is conducive to buying stocks at a good discount during a period of massive "sell-offs.
The situation, when the Lower Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations (the thick red line) and the Upper Rainbow, is above the center of fluctuations is called an Obverse . It is only possible to buy a stock in an Obverse situation .
The situation when the Lower Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations and the Upper Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations is called Reverse . In this situation, the stock cannot be considered for purchase , according to my approach.
Selling a previously purchased stock is possible in both situations: Reverse and Obverse. After loading the indicator, you can see a hint next to the closing price - Reverse or Obverse now.
Due to the fact that the size of the deviation from the center of fluctuation depends on the size of the diluted EPS, several important conclusions can be made:
- The Obverse situation is characteristic of companies that show a profit over the last year.
- The Reverse situation is typical for companies that show a loss over the last year.
- An increase in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells us about an increase in profits for the company.
- A decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells us about a decrease in the company's profits.
- An increase in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells us about an increase in the company's losses.
- A decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells us about a decrease in the company's losses.
- The higher the profit level of the company, the greater your "margin of safety" should be. This will provide the necessary margin of safety in case you go into a cycle of declining financial results. The appropriate width of the Lower Rainbow will just create this "margin".
- Increased profits in the company (after buying its stock) will allow you to stay in position longer by widening the Upper Rainbow.
- A decrease in profits in the company (after buying its stock) will allow you to close your position more quickly by narrowing the Upper Rainbow.
Conditions for opening and closing positions:
So, the Lower Rainbow has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each one highlights the desired range of prices acceptable for buying in an Obverse situation. The blue spectrum is upper with respect to the green spectrum, and the green spectrum is lower with respect to the blue spectrum, etc.
- If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, that is a reason to consider that company for buying the first portion (*) of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider this company to buy a second portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), it is a reason to consider this company to buy a third portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider that company to buy a fourth portion of the stock.
(*) The logic of the Rainbow Indicator implies that no more than 4 portions of one company's stock can be purchased. One portion refers to the number of shares you can consider buying at the current price (depending on your account size and personal diversification ratio - see information below).
The Upper Rainbow also has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each of them highlights the appropriate range of prices acceptable for closing an open position.
- If the current price is in the red spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the orange spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the orange spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the green spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the green spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the blue spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
This position-closing logic applies to both the Obverse and Reverse situations. In both cases, the position is closed in portions in four steps. However, there are 3 exceptions to this rule when it is possible to close an entire position in whole rather than in parts:
- If there is a Reverse situation and the current price is above the thick red line.
- If I decide to invest in another company and I do not have enough available cash to purchase the necessary number of portions.
- If I find out about events that pose a real threat to the further existence of the company (for example, a bankruptcy filing), I can close the position earlier, without waiting for the price to hit the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectrum.
So, the basic scenario of opening and closing a position assumes the gradual purchase of shares in 4 stages and their gradual sale in 4 stages. However, there is a situation where one of the stages is skipped in the case of buying shares and in the case of selling them. For example, because the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio became acceptable for me only at a certain stage (spectrum) or the moment was missed for a transaction due to technical reasons. In such cases, I buy or sell more than one portion of a stock in the spectrum I am in. The number of additional portions will depend on the number of missed spectra. For example, if I have no position in the stock of the company in question, all conditions for buying the stock have been met, and the current price is in the orange spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, I can buy three portions of the stock at once (for the blue, green, and orange spectrum). I will sell these three portions in the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectra (orange, green, and blue). However, if for some reason the orange spectrum of the Upper Rainbow was missed, and the current price is in the green spectrum - I will sell two portions of the three (in the green spectrum). I will sell the last, third portion only when the price reaches the blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow.
The Rainbow Indicator also helps calculate the number of shares that can be considered for purchase at the current price position in the Lower Rainbow spectra. To do this, you need to go to the indicator settings.
+ Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed profit/loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes
Here I indicate the amount of funds deposited to my account, withdrawn from it, profit/loss on closed positions, dividends credited to the account, and taxes deducted from the account.
Diversification coefficient
The diversification coefficient determines how diversified I want my portfolio to be. For example, a diversification coefficient of 20 means that I plan to buy 20 share portions of different companies, but no more than 4 portions per company (based on the number of Lower Rainbow spectra).
The cost of purchased shares of this company (fees excluded)
Here I specify the amount of already purchased shares of the company in question in the currency of my portfolio. For example, if at this point in time, I have purchased 1000 shares at $300 per share, and my portfolio is expressed in $, I enter - $300,000.
The cost of all purchased shares in the portfolio (fees excluded)
Here I enter the amount of all purchased shares for all companies in the currency of my portfolio (without commissions spent on the purchase). This is necessary to determine the amount of available funds available to purchase shares.
After entering all the necessary data, I go to the checkbox, by checking it I confirm that the company in question has been studied with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio, and their values are satisfactory to me. No calculation is performed without the checkbox checked. This is done intentionally because the application of the Rainbow Indicator for stock acquisition purposes is possible only after studying the Fundamental Strength of the company and an acceptable P/E value.
Next, I click "Ok" and get the calculation in the form of a table on the left.
Free cash in the portfolio
This is the amount of free cash available to purchase stocks. Please note that the price of the stock and the funds in your portfolio must be denominated in the same currency. On TradingView, you can choose which currency to display the stock price in.
Cash amount for one portion
The amount of cash needed to buy one portion of a stock. Depends on the diversification ratio entered.
Potential portions amount
Number of portions, available for purchase at the current price. Can be a fractional number.
Cash amount to buy
The amount of cash needed to buy portions available for purchase at the current price.
Shares amount to buy
Number of shares in portions available for purchase at the current price.
The table also contains additional information in the form of the current value of the company's market capitalization and P/E ratio.
Mandatory requirements for using the indicator:
- works only on a daily timeframe;
- the indicator is only applicable to shares of public companies;
- quarterly income statements for the last year are required;
- an acceptable for you P/E ratio is required to consider the company's stock for purchase;
- the Rainbow Indicator only applies in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator. To consider a company's stock for purchase, you need confirmation that the company is fundamentally strong.
What is the value of the Rainbow Indicator?
- clearly demonstrates a company's profit and loss dynamics;
- shows the price ranges that can be used to open and close a position;
- takes into account the principle of gradual increase and decrease of a position;
- allows calculating the number of shares to be purchased;
- shows the current value of the P/E ratio;
- shows the current capitalization of the company.
Example:
As an example, consider the situation with NVIDIA Corporation stock (ticker - NVDA).
September 02, 2022:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 11.46 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 39.58 (acceptable to me).
Current Price - $136.47 (is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are filled out as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Orange Spectrum of Lower Rainbow at the current price = 10 shares. This corresponds to 2.73 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 10 shares of NVDA at $136.47 per share.
October 14, 2022:
NVDA's stock price has moved into the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is 10.81 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 35.80 (an acceptable level for me).
Current Price - $112.27 (is in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum at the current price (5 shares). This corresponds to 1.12 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 5 shares of NVDA at $112.27 per share. A total of 3.85 portions were purchased, which is the maximum possible number of portions at the current price level. The remainder in the form of 0.15 portions can be purchased only at a price level below $75 per share.
January 23, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock passes through the red spectrum of the Upper Rainbow and stops in the orange spectrum. As an example, I sell 5 shares bought in the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, for example at $180 per share (+60%). And also a third of the shares bought in the orange spectrum, 3 shares out of 10, for example at $190 a share (+39%). That leaves me with 7 shares.
January 27, 2023:
NVDA's stock price has continued to rise and has moved into the green spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This is a reason to close some of the remaining 7 shares. I divide the 7 shares by 2 and round up to a whole number - that's 4 shares. For my example, I sell 4 shares at $199 a share (+46%). Now I am left with 3 shares of stock.
February 02, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock moves into the blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, and I close the remaining 3 shares, for example, at $216 per share (+58%). The entire position in NVDA stock is closed.
As you can see, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio were not used in the process of closing the position. Decisions were made only on the basis of the Rainbow Indicator.
As another example, let's look at the situation with the shares of Papa Johns International, Inc. (ticker PZZA).
November 01, 2017:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 13.22 points (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 21.64 (acceptable to me).
Current Price - $62.26 (is in the blue spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are met. The settings of the Rainbow Indicator are filled as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Blue Spectrum at the current price - 8 shares. This corresponds to 1 portion.
To give you an example, I buy 8 shares of PZZA at a price of $62.26.
August 8, 2018:
PZZA's share price has moved into the green spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is a 9.83 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 16.07 (an acceptable level for me).
Current Price - $38.94 (is in the green spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Green Spectrum at the current price - 12 shares. This corresponds to 0.93 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 12 shares of PZZA at a price of $38.94. A total of 1.93 portions were purchased.
October 31, 2018:
PZZA's stock price moves into the Upper Rainbow red spectrum and is $54.54 per share. Since I did not have any portions purchased in the Lower Rainbow red spectrum, there is no closing part of the position.
February 01, 2019:
After a significant decline, PZZA's stock price moves into the orange spectrum of the Lower Rainbow at $38.51 per share. However, I am not taking any action because the company's Fundamental Strength on this day is 5.02 (a fundamentally mediocre company).
March 27, 2019:
PZZA's stock price passes the green and blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This allowed to close the previously purchased 12 shares, for example, at $50 a share (+28%) and 8 shares at $50.38 a share (-19%).
Closing the entire position at once was facilitated by a significant narrowing in both rainbows. As we now know, this indicates a decline in earnings at the company.
Risk disclaimer:
When working with the Rainbow Indicator, keep in mind that the release of the Income statement (from which diluted EPS is derived) occurs some time after the end of the fiscal quarter. This means that the new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statement. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the Rainbow Indicator after the publication of the new statement. The magnitude of this change will depend on both the content of the new statement and the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statement. Prior to the publication date of the new statement, the latest actual data will be used for the calculations. Also, once again, please note that the Rainbow Indicator can only be used in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio. Without these additional filters, the Rainbow Indicator loses its intended meaning.
The Rainbow Indicator allows you to determine the price ranges for opening and closing a position gradually, based on available data and the methodology I created. You can also use it to calculate the number of shares you can consider buying taking into account the position you already have. However, this Indicator and/or its description and examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
Fundamental Strength IndicatorName of the indicator: Fundamental Strength Indicator
A brief description of the indicator:
Using this indicator, you can evaluate a company in terms of the strength of its financial performance and see how that score has changed over time.
The background to the creation of the indicator:
The main idea that inspired me to create this indicator is: " Even if you buy just 1 share of a company, treat it like buying the whole business ". However, when I need to evaluate the business of thousands of public companies traded on exchanges, there is an objective difficulty: it is very time-consuming. To solve this problem, I had to create a scoring system of the fundamental analysis of the company, embodied in this indicator.
What the indicator looks like:
- First, it is a Histogram with bars of three colors: green, orange, and red. The width of the histogram depends on the depth of data from the company statements. The more historical data, the wider the histogram over time.
The green color of the bars means that the company has been showing excellent financial results by the sum of the factors in that time period. According to my terminology, the company has a " strong foundation " during this period. Green corresponds to values between 8 and 15 (where 15 is the maximum possible positive value on the sum of the factors).
The orange color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors during this period the company demonstrated mediocre financial results, i.e. it has a " mediocre foundation ". Orange color corresponds to values from 1 to 7.
The red color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors in this period of time, the company demonstrated weak financial results, i.e. it has a " weak foundation ". The red color corresponds to values from -15 to 0 (where -15 is the maximum possible negative value on the sum of factors).
- Second, this is the Blue Line , which is the moving average of the Histogram bars over the last year (*). Averaging over the year is necessary in order to obtain a weighted estimate that is not subject to medium-term fluctuations. It is by the last value of the blue line that the actual Fundamental Strength of the company is determined.
(*) The last year means the last 252 trading days, including the current trading day.
- Third, these are operating, investing, and financing Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These flows look like thick green, orange, and red lines, respectively.
- Fourth, this is the Table on the left, which shows the latest actual value of the Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows.
Indicator settings:
In the indicator settings, I can disable the visibility of the Histogram, Blue Line, Cash Flows (each separately), and Table. It helps to study each of the parameters separately. It is also possible to change the color, transparency, and thickness of lines.
Mandatory requirements for using the indicator:
- works only on a daily timeframe;
- only applies to shares of public companies;
- company financial statements for the last 4 quarters and more are required;
- it is necessary to have the data from the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement, required for the calculation.
If at least one component required for calculating the Fundamental Strength is missing, the message " no data to calculate the Fundamental Strength correctly " is displayed. In the same case, but for the operating cash flow, the message " no data to calculate the Operating Cash Flow correctly " is shown, and similarly for other flows.
What is the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator:
- allows for a quantitative assessment of a company's financial performance in points (from -15 to 15 points);
- allows you to visually track how the company's financial performance has changed (positively/negatively) over time;
- allows to visually trace the movement of main cash flows over time;
- speeds up the process of selecting companies for your shortlist (if you are focused on financial results when selecting companies);
- allows you to protect yourself from investing in companies with weak and mediocre fundamentals.
Indicator calculation methodology:
Guided by the "Treat stock investments as buying the whole business" approach, you can imagine what kind of business an investor is interested in owning and simultaneously determine the input parameters for calculating the indicator.
(!) Here it is important to emphasize that the idea of a benchmark business for investment is a subjective notion, so be sure to check whether it coincides with your own opinion.
For me, a benchmark business is:
- A business that operates efficiently without diminishing the return on shareholders' investment. To assess the efficiency and profitability of a business, I use the following financial ratios (*): Diluted EPS and Return on Equity (ROE). The first two parameters for calculating the indicator are there.
- A business that scales sales and optimizes its costs. From this point of view, the following financial ratios are suitable: Gross margin, Operating expense ratio, and Total revenue. Plus three other metrics.
- A business that turns goods/services into cash quickly and does not fall behind on payments to suppliers. The following financial ratios will fit here: Days payable, Days sales outstanding, and Inventory to revenue ratio. These are three more metrics.
- A business that does not resort to significant accounts payable and shows financial strength. Here I use the following financial ratios: Current ratio, Interest coverage, and Debt to revenue ratio. These are the last three parameters.
(*) If you want to learn more about these financial ratios, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView:
Financial ratios: digesting them together
What can financial ratios tell us?
Next, each of the parameters is assigned a certain number of points based on its last value or the position of that value relative to the annual maximum and minimum.
For example, if the Current ratio:
- greater than or equal to 2 (+1 point);
- less than or equal to 1 (-1 point);
- more than 1 but less than 2 (0 points).
Or for example, if Diluted EPS:
- near or above the annual high (+2 points);
- near the annual minimum and below (-2 points);
- between the annual maximum and minimum (0 points).
And so on with each of the parameters.
As a result, the maximum number of points a company can score is 15 points. The minimum number of points a company can score is -15 points. These levels are marked with horizontal dotted lines: the green line is for the maximum value, and the red line is for the minimum.
I track the number of points for each day of a company's life on a three-color Histogram. The resulting average value for the last year is on the Blue Line. For me, it is the last value of the Blue Line that determines - this is the actual Fundamental Strength of the company.
The business valuation model I created is more suitable for companies that produce goods or services, and where tangible assets play a significant role in the business. For example, when analyzing companies in the financial sector, you may see the message "no data to calculate the Fundamental Strength correctly". Many of them may simply be missing data that is used as input for the calculation: Inventory to revenue ratio, Days sales outstanding, etc.
Examples:
Below I will evaluate various companies using the Fundamental Strength Indicator.
Tesla, Inc.
The indicator shows that since 2020, Tesla Inc. has been steadily increasing its Fundamental Strength (from 3.27 in Q1 2020 to 12.79 in Q1 2023). This is noticeable both by the color change of the Histogram from orange to green and by the rising Blue Line. If you look in detail at what has been happening with the financials during this time, it's clear what meaningful work the company has done. Revenues have almost quadrupled. Earnings per share have increased 134 times. At the same time, total debt to revenue fell almost 10 times.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
The company, formed in 2018 by the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, has failed to deliver outstanding financial results, causing its Fundamental Strength to fall from 4.63 in Q1 2018 to -0.53 in Q1 2023. During this period, the drop in diluted earnings per share was accompanied by higher debt and deteriorating liquidity.
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Wholesaler Costco has been surprisingly stable in its financial performance and with steady growth in both earnings and revenue. This is the reason why the Histogram bars are exceptionally green throughout the calculation of the indicator. The Fundamental Strength has not changed in three years and is high at 11 points.
As an additional filter, for example, when comparing two companies where all other conditions are equal - I use the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income (*). These are the thick green, orange, and red lines over the Histogram.
Why do I use income as a unit of measure of Cash Flows? Because it is a good way to make the scale of indicator values the same for companies from different countries, with different currencies. It also allows you to use a single value scale for both Cash Flows and Fundamental Strength.
(*) If you want to learn more about Cash Flows, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView:
Cash flow statement or Three great rivers
Cash flow vibrations
So, an additional filter shows the dynamics of Cash Flows over time.
To interpret the dynamics of Cash Flows, I pay attention to the following patterns:
- How the cash flows are positioned in relation to each other;
- In which zone each of the cash flows is located - in the positive or negative;
- What is the trend of each of the cash flows;
- How volatile each of the cash flows is.
As an example, let's look at several companies in order to interpret the dynamics of their Cash Flows.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
This is the most ideal situation for me: operating cash flow (green line) is above the other cash flows, investment cash flow (orange line) is near zero and practically unchanged, and financial cash flow (red line) is consistently below zero. This picture shows that the company lives off its operating cash flow, does not increase its debt, does not spend a substantial amount of money on expensive purchases, and retains (does not sell off) assets.
Parker Hannifin Corporation
With stable operating cash flow (green line), the company implements investment programs by raising additional funding. This is noticeable due to an increase in financial cash flow (red line) and a simultaneous decrease in investment cash flow (orange line) with a significant deepening into negative areas. Apparently, there is not enough operating cash flow to realize the planned investments. One has to wonder how sustainable a company can be if it invests in its development using borrowed funds without a subsequent increase in operating cash flow.
Schlumberger N. V.
The chaotic intertwining of cash flows outside of the Fundamental Strength range (-15 to 15) is indicative of the company's rich life, but to me, it is an indicator of high riskiness of its actions. And as we can see, Fundamental Strength has only begun to strengthen in the last year, when the external appearance of cash flow has normalized.
Risk disclaimer:
When working with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the additional filter in the form of Cash Flows, you should understand that the publication of the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement takes place sometime after the end of the financial quarter. This means that new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statements. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the values of the Indicator after the publication of new statements. The magnitude of this change will depend both on the content of the new statements and on the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statements. Until the date of publication of the new statements, the latest relevant data will be used for calculations.
I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the calculation of Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows requires the availability of data for all parameters of the valuation model . It uses data that is exclusively available on TradingView (there is no reconciliation with other sources). If at least one parameter is missing, I switch to another company's analysis to continue using the indicator.
Thus, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and an additional filter in the form of Cash Flows make it possible to evaluate the financial results of the company based on the available data and the methodology I created. A simple visualization in the form of a three-color Histogram, a Blue line, and three thick Cash Flow lines significantly reduces the time for selecting fundamentally strong companies that fit the criteria of the selected model. However, this Indicator and/or its description and/or examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
Fundamental Value and Dividend Growth InvestingThis script is an original implementation of a Fundamental Value and Dividend Growth Investing Strategy for traders who want to incorporate these concepts in their trading decisions. The script uses technical indicators to determine buy and sell signals based on a set of criteria.
To use the script, traders can input various parameters, such as the length of the simple moving averages (SMA), the rate of change (ROC) length, and the dividend yield. The script calculates the SMA for the long and short periods, the ROC, and the dividend.
The buy signal is triggered when the current closing price is greater than the short-term SMA, the short-term SMA crosses above the long-term SMA, the ROC is positive, and the closing price is greater than the dividend. The sell signal is triggered when the current closing price is less than the long-term SMA, the long-term SMA crosses above the short-term SMA, and the ROC is negative.
The script plots the signals and the indicators, such as the SMA200, the SMS50, the dividend, and the ROC. The script also includes alert conditions for the buy and sell signals.
The concept underlying the calculations of this script is the Fundamental Value and Dividend Growth Investing Strategy. This strategy aims to identify stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value and have a history of increasing dividends. The SMA and ROC indicators help identify the trends in the stock price, while the dividend yield helps identify stocks with a history of dividend growth.
Overall, this script offers traders an original and useful tool for incorporating Fundamental Value and Dividend Growth Investing Strategy into their trading decisions.
ValueViewTitle: ValueView
Description:
ValueView is a script designed to cater to the needs of value investors. Its primary purpose is to provide a comprehensive overview of the financial performance of a stock, making it easier for investors to assess the intrinsic value and potential investment opportunities.
The script displays a concise summary of essential fundamental values and metrics in the form of a customizable table, directly integrated into the chart. This allows investors to evaluate the stock's performance for a variable number of fiscal years, as defined by the user. The input flexibility enables users to focus on the timeframes that are most relevant to their analysis.
ValueView works on timeframes greater than or equal to "DAY", ensuring that the data presented is reliable and relevant for long-term value investing strategies. With this feature, investors can focus on the bigger picture and avoid getting distracted by short-term fluctuations.
With ValueView, investors can choose to select or deselect specific metrics according to their investment strategy and preferences. This feature ensures that users are presented with the information they find most valuable, allowing them to make more informed decisions based on their unique perspective.
Key Features:
Quick overview of the financial performance of a stock for value investors
Customizable table displaying essential fundamental values and metrics
User-defined number of fiscal years for analysis
Select and deselect metrics to tailor the output to individual preferences
ValueView offers a convenient, time-saving solution for value investors looking to gain a deep understanding of a stock's financial performance. With its customizable features and easy-to-use interface, this script simplifies the process of identifying promising investments and making informed decisions.
Overvalued/Undervalued OverlayThis indicator will tell you whether the security you are looking at is overvalued or undervalued using a company's total assets and their market cap. In theory, a company's total assets is everything that they own, which then should technically be how much the company is worth. Therefore, if the company's market cap is higher than their total assets, the indicator will read "Overvalued by X%". However, if the company's market cap is lower than their total assets, the indicator will read "Undervalued by X%". If you have any questions, feel free to let me know. Keep in mind that this indicator should be only used for long-term investing.
ValueBands for Acceptable P/E/ and P/B# What's this script?
Plot BookValue/share and TangibleBookValue/share
Visualization of Price Bands for Acceptable P/E and P/B
Adaptation to Currency Change
When TTM(FQ) financial data is not available, FY financial data is used to supplement the TTM(FQ) data.
#Parameter
P/E : acceptable price ratio of Earnings per share. Default is 15
P/B : acceptable price ratio of Book value per share. Default is 1.5
P/TB : acceptable price ratio of Tangible Book value per share. Default is 1.5
#Line
## Books
BookValue : book value per share
TangibleBookValue :tangible book value per share
## Acceptable Prices
Acceptable P/E : P/E * EPS
Acceptable P/B : P/B * BVPS
Acceptable P/TB : P/TB * TBVPS
## Geometric mean
GeometricMean(APE&APB) : sqrt(APE*APB). Geometric mean of "Acceptable P/E" and "Acceptable P/B". if PE15 & PB1.5 then GrahamNumber .
GeometricMean(APE&APTB) : sqrt(APE*APTB). Geometric mean of "Acceptable P/E" and "Acceptable P/TB".
## color fill
BV -TBV .Fill color is TBV line
APE -APB .Fill color is the color of the larger APE and APB lines
I am not a programmer, so I can only provide crude functionality, but I hope it will be of some help to you
---------------------
◆これなに
指定したPEやPBの価格帯がチャートにのります
通貨変更に対応したスクリプトがなかったからつくりました
期のデータが無いところは年のデータをミックスして補完して、長短期どちらの検討でも使いやすくしました
プログラマーじゃないから必要なものだけですけど、よかったらつかってみてくださいね
1. 一株当たり純資産の線
2. 一株当たり有形固定資産の線
3. 1と2の間を2の線の色で塗りつぶし
4. 設定画面で指定した許容P/E相当の価格線。デフォルトは15
5. 設定画面で指定した許容P/B相当の価格線。デフォルトは1.5
6. 4と5のあいだを塗りつぶし。大きい値の方の線の色で塗りつぶされます
7. 設定画面で指定した許容P/TB相当の価格線。デフォルトは1.5
8. 4と5の相乗平均。もしPE15,PB1.5にしてたらGrahamNumber 。
9. 4と6の相乗平均
Stock Value EUThere are many method of measuring value of stock. However I'm proposing most basic stock valuation based on Book Value, Earnings , Dividends and Money Supply:
SV = (BVPS + EPS + DPS ) * ( M3 /M1)
BVPS = Book Value Per Share (Asset - Liability)
EPS = Earnings Per Share
DPS = Dividends Per Share
M3 = M3 Money Supply (Money Market)
M1 = M1 Money Supply (Base Money)
Fundamental value of a stock should be determine by it's BV which means total asset of a company if were liquidated today and use some of it's asset to pay of the debt. So technically BVPS is the intrinsic value of a stock. However the company is generating an earning which is profit and loss that should be added on top of the fundamental value of company, so thus EPS should be added on top of Book Value Per Share. Aside from earnings , the stock that you purchase give you dividends as your return so DPS also can be included on top of that. So all in all BVPS, EPS and DPS are the primary valuation of the stock. However most of the stock are traded way higher than their fundamental valuation. The main reason of this is the market dynamics which is driven by central banks printing of base money supply M0. The banking credit system then lend out this money to money markets as loan so that peoples can invest and by the company stock. This money supply extension of credit is known as money market M2 which drive the stock inflated price. The ratio between M2 and M0 are the money multiplier effect that drives the stock price higher than it's valuation. So the Stock Value should be the total number of BVPS + EPS + DPS times the M2 money multiplier as shown by this indicator.
If the stock are traded above their SV value, that means it's an overpriced bubble
If the stock are traded below their SV value, that means it's an underpriced burst
This indicator is only applicable for EU based stock chart, because we use EU money supply to do the money multiplier calculation. For other country stocks take a look our other indicator:
- Stock Value EU - applicable for European stocks
- Stock Value CN - applicable for Chinese stocks
- Valuation Rainbow - applicable for all countries
Valuation RainbowValuation Rainbow
© danny_peanuts
Stock value based on Book Value, Earnings, Dividends and Money Multiplier
SV = (BVPS + EPS + DPS) * MM
BVPS = Book Value Per Share
EPS = Earnings Per Share
DPS = Dividends Per Share
MM = Money Multiplier - Integer Number from 1,2,3, ... ,7
There are multiple ways of valuing the stock. Book value is traditionally used as the basic valuation since it's calculate the total asset value minus the liabilities of any company. There are valuation based on multiplication of book value, there are valuation based on multiplication of earnings, and valuation based on multiplication of dividends. Here I'm proposing valuation based on all of these combined. So this indicator is measuring stock value based on multiplication of book value plus earning plus dividend per share. Since the money supply could have an multiplication effect so does the stock value could have a multiplication effect. Also notes that some blue chips stock tends to value higher than startup stock due to money is not equally distributed. So for simplicity I will use simple integer number to represent this multiplication effect as rainbow color plots, thus it can be applied to any stock at any given countries. The higher the stock price on valuation bands the most expensive it is and the lower the price on valuation bands the cheaper it is.
Benjamin Graham Net-Net AnalyserA simple indicator that displayers as a table, telling you whether or not the stock you have selected has a current price that is less than 67% of the company's net current asset value per share (NCAVPS) at its last reporting period (FQ, FY, TTM).
Benjamin Graham uses this 67% rule to decide whether or not a stock is significantly undervalued, and studies have shown that investing in companies whose share prices are less than 67% of their NCAVPS can be highly profitable, and will beat markets in the long run.
Feel free to use as you please or repurpose the code for your own projects.
OGT Intrinsic Value IndicatorOGT Intrinsic Value Indicator
This indicator will show you visually the intrinsic value of a stock. Intrinsic value aims to measure of what an asset is worth. There are a number of intrinsic valuation models where this TradingView indicator uses an earnings valuation model.
There are 4 inputs to the model:
1) EPS trailing 12 months (ttm) - the first step is to know what the current EPS is for a stock. The indicator calculates this for you
2) Annual EPS Growth Next 5 Years - You need to input what you think the annual growth rate is going to be for the stock. You can use you annual estimates which you can obtain by searching "stock name - eps growth forecast"
3) Earnings Multiple (PE Ratio) - The next step is to input the earnings multiple in year 5. You can get this from analyst estimates or looking at the average PE ratio of the asset over the past 3 / 5 / 10 years.
4) Desired Rate Of Return - The last input is your rate of return. I personally use 12.5% as you can invest in an S&P ETF and get 8-10% return. So I prefer a higher rate of return for the risk I am taking.
You will need to input your low, medium and high assumptions so you can see the different price ranges.
Financial GrowthThis indicator will acquire the financial data provided by Tradview.
the data is compare between Quarter, Annual and TTM in term of percent of growth.
YoY, QoQ and CAGR is also available by this script (The minimum is 4).
in addition, ploting of data, label and table also available (you can check the mark to toggle on / off).
Data : Revenue, Net Income, EBITDA, EPS, DVPS, Free Cash Flow and Forward PE .
How to use it.
just select the financial data, period and size of data to compare.
you can check the box to toggle the plotting line, label and table.
Enjoy.
Stock Value - How Much Stock Should Worth?Stock Value
© danny_peanuts
There are many method of measuring value of stock. However I'm proposing most basic stock valuation based on Book Value, Earnings, Dividends and Money Supply:
SV = (BVPS + EPS + DPS) * (M2/M0)
BVPS = Book Value Per Share (Asset - Liability)
EPS = Earnings Per Share
DPS = Dividends Per Share
M2 = M2 Money Supply (Money Market)
M0 = M0 Money Supply (Base Money)
Fundamental value of a stock should be determine by it's BV which means total asset of a company if were liquidated today and use some of it's asset to pay of the debt. So technically BVPS is the intrinsic value of a stock. However the company is generating an earning which is profit and loss that should be added on top of the fundamental value of company, so thus EPS should be added on top of Book Value Per Share. Aside from earnings, the stock that you purchase give you dividends as your return so DPS also can be included on top of that. So all in all BVPS, EPS and DPS are the primary valuation of the stock. However most of the stock are traded way higher than their fundamental valuation. The main reason of this is the market dynamics which is driven by central banks printing of base money supply M0. The banking credit system then lend out this money to money markets as loan so that peoples can invest and by the company stock. This money supply extension of credit is known as money market M2 which drive the stock inflated price. The ratio between M2 and M0 are the money multiplier effect that drives the stock price higher than it's valuation. So the Stock Value should be the total number of BVPS + EPS + DPS times the M2 money multiplier as shown by this indicator.
If the stock are traded above their SV value, that means it's an overpriced bubble
If the stock are traded below their SV value, that means it's an underpriced burst
Income Ratio■ Income Statement Ratio
This script will provide how distribution of income statement of a comany is.
it also allows us to see a clear picture how the business of a company develop.
For example TESLA.
in term of value, its revenue is 13,757K in the last quarter and it seam to be stable.
while the cost of goods sold (COGS) also increase.
In term of percent, it shows that the gross profit margin is growing up as well as net profit margin.
moreover, depreciation and amortization has declined as well as COGS.
This information like this will help us make a better trading plan.
■ Idea.
1. Each items such as Cost of Goods Sold, Gross Profit will be divided by total revenue.
2. 2 types of data after calculation, Value in Million and Percent by comparing with "Total Revenue".
■ How to use it.
In the menu, you can select the type of data to show
1. Select data type, it is available in Value in Million and Percent.
2. Select the financial period : FY for Financial Year and FQ for Financial Quarter.
Enjoy.
MacroCorrelation (Bitcoin Real Value)The best minds in the financial world think about how to determine the real value of an asset.
I constantly say that it is necessary to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value. Let's see what is the difference between these two concepts.
Fundamental value
Imagine that we decided to grow and sell, for example, strawberries. For this, we purchased the necessary equipment, tools, fertilizers, seeds, and more. Let's say that we needed $ 3000 for this purpose.
To facilitate the task, in our calculation we will not take into account all types of possible costs (electricity cost, workers' wages, necessary tax deductions, etc.).
If we had to take a loan to meet the initial needs, for example, at 10% per annum , then each borrowed $ 1000 in a year would cost us $ 1100. That is, $ 3000 would cost us $ 3300 per year.
Let's agree that our initial funds were completely enough to buy everything we needed, and we didn't need to take out a loan at a certain percentage. In this case, we exclude from the calculation the cost of the capital required to start your own business.
Suppose we managed to harvest 100 kg of strawberries. This means that the real value (fundamental value) of 1 kg of our strawberries is $ 30.
Market price
Things are a little different with the market price. The market price is determined by the volume of supply and demand for a particular product or service at a particular point in time.
By demand, we mean the intention to purchase a product or service (secured by the ability to pay a set price for it). A need that exceeds solvency is not a demand.
By offer, we mean the willingness to provide ownership (use) of the object of demand for a certain fee.
Simply put, the market price is the price at which the buyer is willing to buy (and the seller to sell) the volume of goods we need.
In our case, the price at which we sell 1 kg of our strawberries will depend on how much people really need our strawberries.
If we are the only sellers of strawberries in a certain territory and, at the same time, buyers really want to taste fresh strawberries, its market price can be as high as the last buyer is able to pay. If not, everything will depend on how high quality our product will be for its price. At the same time, the price constantly varies over a certain period of time ( seasonality and other factors). For example, if in winter we could sell 1 kg of our strawberries for $ 90, then in summer for $ 50. Strawberry prices range from $ 50 to $ 90.
Magic formula
We now understand what is the difference between fundamental value and market price. If the first is made up exclusively of a set of real metrics, the second is a variable factor that depends primarily on “human factors” (what is the maximum price the buyer is willing to pay, what is the minimum price the seller is willing to set at a particular moment in time).
You should try to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value.
However, how can you independently determine the fundamental value of an asset?
Unfortunately, there is no universal answer to this question, just as there is no universal “magic formula” in nature (my sincere respect, Joel Greenblatt) that could determine the fundamental value of any asset on the planet. The point is precisely in the criterion of universality. If we consider each asset (or at least the market) separately, we can well determine its fundamental value.
Even those things that seem free to us in everyday life (just their cost are negligible) have a fundamental value.
Three factors to assess the fundamental value of Bitcoin
Let's try to take a separate asset, for example Bitcoin , and do with it everything that we did earlier with our “strawberry business”.
When assessing the real (fundamental) value of Bitcoin , we will take into account 3 main factors.
1. The maximum possible and current supply in the Bitcoin market
The reward for mining a Bitcoin block is halved every 210,000 blocks. This fact is called halving (halving). When all blocks are mined, the total amount of existing bitcoins will be 21 million coins.
Accordingly, the maximum supply in the Bitcoin network will not exceed 21 million coins.
In reality, things are even better, since this volume also includes a certain amount of lost coins. By lost, we mean all those coins whose “private keys” the last owner no longer has access to. For example, at the time of the appearance of Bitcoin in 2009, its real value was doubtful and not obvious to most of its owners, many of whom did not pay due attention to understanding the safe storage of an asset, periodically losing access to hundreds and thousands of coins.
As a result, we understand that the total supply in the Bitcoin market will be significantly less than 21 million coins.
To evaluate the proposal, it is not enough to understand how much of the asset exists, because a certain amount of it, as we have already understood, can either be lost or be blocked for a long time. It is also important to take into account the criterion of “supply in time”. That is, the current total “liquidity” of the network.
2. Bitcoin network hashrate
The main indicator of the viability and stability of the Bitcoin network is the hash rate (computing power). Stable hashrate = network security.
3. The real value of the US dollar
When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar .
It is believed that assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile (the price can change over a wide range within a relatively short period of time). At the same time, to reduce volatility , experts advise using the so-called “currency baskets”.
A currency basket is a certain percentage of foreign currencies in which the investor's capital can be distributed. The ratio of currency units in the basket is used to reduce the potential risk of currency fluctuations.
The main problem is that, due to inflation , the purchasing power of the currencies themselves drops significantly over time.
With the $ 100 we earned in 1913, already in the 1920s we could have purchased 50% fewer goods and services than before. In the 1980s, it was 90% less, and in the 2010s it was already 98% less.
This fact must also be taken into account when assessing the real value of Bitcoin , since everything is relative, and in the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, we determine the value of Bitcoin , expressed in US dollars.
The real value of Bitcoin
After assessing the relationship of the factors described above and drawing up a mathematical formula, we can proceed to the analysis of the results. In order to cut off unnecessary noise when constructing the function, we will use the graph for 1 month.
Analyzing the resulting chart, first of all, the following is striking: the fundamental value of Bitcoin grows over time. This is due to the gradual expansion of the "user base" of the network, as well as the growth of its popularity among investors of completely different classes.
I propose to compare the graph obtained earlier with the graph of Internet users (in% of the number of adult US citizens ). Similar, don't they?
The more the number of Internet users, the higher its influence and economic potential. The more the number of users of the Bitcoin network, the higher its economic potential and fundamental value.
However, understanding the fundamental value alone is not enough. We, as investors, first of all need to understand when to buy any asset.
To do this, compare the chart of the market price of Bitcoin with the chart of its fundamental value obtained earlier.
Now that we have a complete picture of what is happening and understand both the fundamental value of the asset and its market price, the fact of the numerical prevalence of the price over the fundamental value for 116 out of 133 months becomes quite clear. Periods of Bitcoin being below its fundamental value are extremely rare and only take ~ 13% of the trading time.
For about 87% of all trading time, Bitcoin's market price is above its fundamental value. Those rare periods when traders are willing to sell bitcoin below its fundamental value are an incredible gift for a long-term investor.
Bull and Bear Markets
If you buy Bitcoin (like any other asset) below its fundamental value, this is an absolutely incredible idea in terms of potential profitability, who in their right mind would sell their assets below this mark ?!
It's all about the emotionality of people. Saying “I will not do stupid things when the time is right” is easier than actually maintaining composure. Especially when it comes to money. Your money. And sometimes even dreams.
The classical market theory usually divides the market into two main phases: A bull market is a period of time during which the price rises systematically (accordingly, the demands and expectations of traders gradually grow). A bear market is a period of time during which the price gradually falls (accordingly, traders' requests and expectations gradually fall).
There is also the concept of “correction”: A correction is a temporary change in the price of an asset, contrary to the main trend.
For the current day, there is not a single clear criterion that separates the concept of a bear / bull market from the concept of a correction. However, we can say with confidence that the market change (from bullish to bearish or from bearish to bullish ) is interconnected with the fundamental factors of the market. Corrections, on the other hand, have significantly less connection with fundamental indicators.
and are rather related to the “physiology of the market” (nothing can only rise in price every unit of time for a significantly long time, nothing can only fall in price every unit of time for a significantly long time).
In this case, the most rational would be to define a bear market as a delay in updating the absolute historical highs of the price with a preliminary touch of the fundamental value.
Buying below the fundamental value is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental value, since, in most cases, it is the touch of the fundamental value that globally separates a bear and a bull market.
Fun fact: If we were to buy Bitcoin every time it touched the fundamental value, the average buy price as of July 2021 would be $ 1,506.65, which is 87% less than the current fundamental value of Bitcoin .
Conclusions
1. The total amount of Bitcoins , as well as the speed of their production (mining) over time, are programmatically limited, which limits the volume of the maximum possible supply
2. Bitcoin is transported, which means that the volume of supply for the current minute will also depend on the actual volume of assets available for sale
3. The viability of the network is based on the amount of computer power supporting it (network hash rate)
4. When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar
5. Price ≠ fundamental value
6. Buying below the fundamental is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental.
7. Don't believe the headlines of financial news and the public words of financiers
8. Selling strawberries can make a fortune too
Value CandlesCreating candles from value stats as an experiment. These candles will almost always follow price candles except when there is a deviation.
Strategies based on buying the dips can be applied better on value candles. This is because, drop in value candles imply real bargain whereas drop in price candles can also be due to some other factors.
We can clearly see in the Amazon chart that value candles have come down even though price candles are at same level from September. This signifies AMZN stock is having more value now (due to increased sales from September to now) than back in September even though the price is same.
Another simple thing we can do is move Value candles into same overlay as that of price candles. This will look something like this:
Key thing to remember : Lower the value candle higher the relative value of stock.
